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Topic ClosedWhat will Prog be like in 2035?

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 25 2015 at 15:05
Originally posted by Horizons Horizons wrote:

Neo- Neo Prog

Ripping off Pendragon/IQ/Cool name here. 

Then in another 20 years it will be Neo-neo-neo prog LOL
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 25 2015 at 15:37
Originally posted by Dean Dean wrote:

Geek + Stern Smile ... [serious technical face]

Judging by the speed in which technology advances and how slow markets are to react I suspect that in 20 years the music industry will have caught-up with the state of technology that we currently have. They will continue to make money and the Madonna's of that world will continue to be millionaires, the exponential earnings differential will still exist and 20% of the artists will still earn 95% of the sales revenue from music. Prog will remain a niche market and earnings will remain low for all Prog artists.

Note: How the media market plays out depends upon the hardware and technology that is used to play it. Look at your iPhone... that's the future of all media technology - small memory, no external storage.

CDRs and the technology that we currently use for playing and burning our own CDs etc., will be as obsolete as the floppy disc is today, along with all of the interface standards that we currently rely on (for example USB will be as obsolete as RS232 or PCMCIA has been for the past 20 years). Computer memory will be entirely cache-memory with no capability for long-term storage. Internal and external hard-drives will not exist. The concept of files will be obsolete - everything will be a data-stream that will be accessed from the cloud, this will render the idea of any person owning data as a thing of the past. Everything will be streamed and once uploaded it will become the property of the service provider. Downloads will be obsolete as there will be no where to save them to.

Note: If you think that the current initiatives by your respective governments for total coverage of fast broadband and cell-phone is to aid the consumer then think again - no government is that altruistic or public spirited.

All music will be streamed from subscription services run and operated by the major media corporation ... or MicroApplesoftSony as it will probably be known. This will possibly be a two-tier operation with 'signed' artists commanding a premium-rate streaming (pay-per-listen) and 'unsigned' artists at lower cost streaming (this could even be a pay-to-play subscription service to the artists until they exceed a prescribed number of streams per track). As with today - 'signed' artists will have their recording costs covered by the corporation, the 'unsigned' artists will be self-financed - the only difference will be that being 'signed' will be an automatic process that switches in (and out) once a fixed number of streams has been achieved. [They probably won't use the terms 'signed' and 'unsigned' but something equivalent]. 

Note: Most of us have already bought into a basic form of this business model so these predictions are not that far-fetched.

A new form of analogue streaming would have been perfected based upon FM technology that will allow analogue audio to be time-compressed so that an entire album (or performance) can be streamed in a few seconds and then time-expanded in the receiver. Internal storage of this expanded data will be on solid-state analogue "tape"  - a development of magnetoresistive memory cells and/or graphine technology. While this will not impress the dedicated audiophilist (see next prediction) it will be widely adopted by the classical music world and used extensively for fast data transmission between recording studios so will become the de facto standard for all high quality audio. 

Note: Okay, that is pure speculation and crystal-ball gazing on my part but once developments in digital technology have plateaued out, (which I'm fairly confident it will), the major tech companies will switch their R&D over to analogue technology, but first they will have to create a market and a demand for the product.

There will be a small pocket of resistance to this change in how technology is used. For the purposes of this post I will call them The Hardy Boys. These will be the die-hard audiophilists who will hold-on to hard-copy of their media. To meet this small and very niche demand hard copies of music (and film) will still be available through specialist suppliers at inflated prices (low demand=high prices). The upside of this is all formats will be available - from tape through to vinyl and CD, even 8-track for those who really want it.
Two things:
1) The chances of people being "microchipped" is a very real, if Orwellian, development; ergo, not only will folks be tracked for various health and marketing purposes (not to mention insidious governmental designs), but music can be piped in directly to the brain from the cloud without the need for external speakers or headphones. Perhaps not in 20 years, but I can see it happening eventually.
 
2) People invent their own music based on humming or brain patterns which computers can amplify and symphonize with various instruments. I believe that technology is available now, however rudimentary. What need for musicians, singers or anything else when you can invent your own tunes without even the need to be musically inclined? You can even put your tunes on the descendant of YouTube and everyone gets their minute of fame.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 25 2015 at 15:54
Originally posted by zravkapt zravkapt wrote:

In 2035 almost nobody will be making money from music; 99% of new music will be free to the world and 90% of the human race won't care about any of it.


Sounds like a horrible future, but sadly I suspect your prediction will come true, at least partially so. I think the idea of making money from music will be broadly regarded as decadent and vulgar, because making music won't be regarded as 'work'

Musicians will be expected to entertain us for free and any that object will be treated in the media the same way bankers are at the moment. The difference being the bankers deserve it.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 25 2015 at 15:58
Originally posted by Angelo Angelo wrote:

LOL Lovely, Steve... I never thought someone would take the bait...

But - prog will be different then in the sense that the people interested will be us (I'll be retiring around that time), and a bunch of younger people who are now learning to play musical instruments and listening to the likes of Opeth, Motorpsycho, Seven Impale, Steven Wilson and perhaps some of the RIO/Avant that appears now, like Ut Gret. That will be blended in with classic rock and original prog, following in the steps of the (by then 54 year old) Peter Jones of Tiger Moth Tales. 
I expect that electronics and perhaps even the dance music of modern day DJs may be included in a way I cannot predict right now - but to a lesser extend than what people learn now from listening to aforementioned bands, and The Flower Kings, Marillion, Genesis, Yes, King Crimson and Pink Floyd. The big names will always be major influences, that won't change much over 20 years unless a new musical revolution occurs.
So, more of the intricate melodic works we see now, with new influences and technology added if new musicians indeed decide do look forward instead of into the past.

The amount of 'old guys' playing and touring will likely be smaller though, because although the amount of bands and releases is massive, I see a lot of new albums being released by musicians in their 40s and sometimes even 50s who decided to release something after spending years in a 'regular day job'. They'll have slightly different careers over the next 20 years than say Steve Hackett and Rick Wakeman had over the past 40. 

As far as vocals are concerned, I tend to agree with you - many bands that started with grunts and growls have switched to melodic vocals, and the extreme metal genre will be a lot smaller in 20 years.

Artists that I hope will still be around to take over the roles of the the dinosaurs (Hackett, Howe, Waters, etc) and mammoths (Stolt, Gildenlöw, Trewavas etc) would be amongst others Franck Carducci, Peter Jones, and Unreal City's Emanuele Tarasconi.

And I'll be enjoying it on vinyl from a chair on the porch of a log cabin somewhere in a rural area that I have yet to discover. Wink

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 25 2015 at 17:38
Taking into account my age, in 2035 I'll likely be deaf, so who cares?
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 25 2015 at 21:46
You never know.  As boring as pop is it might become the new popular music by then.  Don't forget that rock n roll is still a bit of a newbie on the music scene.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 25 2015 at 22:14
I predict that there will be a rebellion against all the electrics and electronics of the older generations and that the youth of the era will revert to acoustic music and compositions which will be almost completely free to use any style of music worldwide past and, to us, present.  Hybrids such as Gagaku-Beethoven and Tuvan Throat Singing-Andina will be particularly popular. NukeHugHandshakeYing Yang
The world of sound is certainly capable of infinite variety and, were our sense developed, of infinite extensions. -- George Santayana, "The Sense of Beauty"
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 25 2015 at 22:52
Technically non-existent. After rock music has morphed for another twenty years, no longer resembling the rock that birthed 70s prog, or the rock that birthed neo-prog, or the rock that birthed post and math rock, or the metal that birthed prog metal, or post-metal, or... zzzzzzzzzz Shocked, progressive-music-that-is-also-rock wouldn't and shouldn't resemble too much the prog we know and love. Alternately, rock will be consumed in nostalgia and we will only hear 70s prog revivalists... zzzzzzzzzzzz
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 26 2015 at 06:19
20 years is a long time to make predictions, but then much current Prog is not that different from the Prog from 1995, although it's also true that some new sub-genres and trends have emerged.

Similarly, I guess that some Prog similar to the current one (including retro-Prog) will still be made, but some new trends will have emerged, possibly more avant and/or electronic oriented. I guess that the formulas for melodic complex music using traditional instruments are a bit squeezed out, there can be endless new compositions but limited new sounds and textures. So truely new Prog will have to be less melodic or use new sounds or beat patterns. Or perhaps a renaissance of classical music with a modern twist?

It's also interesting wondering about the instruments and their sounds, we are in an era where it seems that sound synthesis has reached the limits, any sound can be already produced, but there are still 'sound trends' and these could change significantly in years to come.

Many of us will be dead or senile by then so it will be the current young generation of Proggers who will still be purchasing music and deciding what they like the most and discussing in places like PA. So there could well be a generation of 'Retro Prog Metal', with the likes of Petrucci's doing what Steve Hackett is doing now for Symphonic.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 26 2015 at 06:49
If people continue to make retro Prog long enough, eventually an entire generation of consumers will emerge who think it's completely new.Dead
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 26 2015 at 07:08
Originally posted by ExittheLemming ExittheLemming wrote:

If people continue to make retro Prog long enough, eventually an entire generation of consumers will emerge who think it's completely new.Dead


Indeed
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 26 2015 at 08:45
Yes will still exist as a band, though they will only tour 3 times and release 2 new studio albums by 2035. On the flipside, they will go through 74 personnel changes, including 17 reunions with Jon Anderson.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 26 2015 at 10:48
Hi,
 
I keep thinking that in 20 years, this world will be almost like "Blade Runner" ... and you and I will hope that we can break through to the other side and make the world a better place, than just being a copycat replicant!
 
The media might be the problem and issue at that time, as if it already isn't.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 26 2015 at 11:22
As it seems that the attention span is decreasing, a prog epic would be four minutes and a regular song would be thirty seconds.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2015 at 03:16
And very probably playing actual instruments will not be needed anymore, we will be able to connect our brain to a computer and just imagine music and the computer will play it loud.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2015 at 04:31
Originally posted by The Dark Elf The Dark Elf wrote:

Two things:
1) The chances of people being "microchipped" is a very real, if Orwellian, development; ergo, not only will folks be tracked for various health and marketing purposes (not to mention insidious governmental designs), but music can be piped in directly to the brain from the cloud without the need for external speakers or headphones. Perhaps not in 20 years, but I can see it happening eventually.
Current microchipping technology is a passive transponder exactly like the security tags that stores use to prevent shoplifting. A powerful radio transmitter sends a signal to the transponder, the energy in this signal is used to power the device that then wakes up and responds with a low power radio signal containing a unique ID code, the transponder then runs out of power and shuts down. The whole sequence takes a few microseconds and the chipped person would be completely unaware that anything had happened. Within less than 20 years I suspect that human microchipping will be a very real and viable alternative to carrying around credit cards, ID cards and Passports, if only for anti-theft security.

Taking this to the next level to actually stimulating specific nerves within the human body is more problematic and while research in this field is being done to repair or replace damaged nerve-interfaces, such as electrical cochlear implants to replace the cochlear completely, this research is still in its infancy and at present does not replicate coherent sound reproduction. Current cochlear implants are electromechanical devices that mechanically vibrate the cochlear to create auditory nerve impulses - there would be no gain or advantage in implanting this technology into someone who does not need it.

But as you say, not 20 years but eventually (maybe).
Originally posted by The Dark Elf The Dark Elf wrote:

 
2) People invent their own music based on humming or brain patterns which computers can amplify and symphonize with various instruments. I believe that technology is available now, however rudimentary. What need for musicians, singers or anything else when you can invent your own tunes without even the need to be musically inclined? You can even put your tunes on the descendant of YouTube and everyone gets their minute of fame.
and
Originally posted by Gerinski Gerinski wrote:

And very probably playing actual instruments will not be needed anymore, we will be able to connect our brain to a computer and just imagine music and the computer will play it loud.
I suspect that 20 years is a tad more optimistic than even predicting active implants to pipe music directly into the brain.

Stimulating nerve impulses with implants to feed information into the brain is infinitely easier than taking information out of the brain and interpreting specific thoughts. One reason is the human brain is a remarkable processor of sensory information that operates in a completely different way to the Von Neumann (or modified Harvard) architecture of modern computers. What you are suggesting is mind-reading and that has far wider implications than simply using brain-waves to create music. 

Even if we ignore the complexities of converting thought into a sequence of commands for creating music, just tapping into the nerve-impulses that we use to make vocal sounds is incredibly complex as we use our lungs, diaphragm, vocal chords, nasal and mouth cavities, tongue and lips to generate sound using the passage of exhaled air and then our ears and auditory processing to control and "tune" that sound into a musical note of precise pitch and timbre. While this is happening in real-time our brains are then working on the next sound and sequence of sounds to make in a melodic sequence.

But yeah - taking a hummed melody and auto-arranging that into a tune - that's just software and it's simple enough to convert musical sound into Midi (for example) and then analyse that into key, tempo and rhythm to fit into templated arrangements of instrumentation and song structures following rule-sets we already know and use - you can have that today if someone writes the App (and they probably already have).


Edited by Dean - April 27 2015 at 04:42
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2015 at 04:49
What I'm looking forward to the most is the invention of the Prog Rock Membrane, which basically is this little condom you pull over your ears. All music that reaches your ears, be that Dolly Parton, Wiz Khalifa or Willie Nelson, will then magically be transformed into prog. You will be able to program it into whatever setting that best suit your tastes too - like 'The Emerson Effect', 'Henry Cow Mayhem' as well as the more docile touch of 'Jon Anderson Lube'.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2015 at 05:04
Originally posted by Guldbamsen Guldbamsen wrote:

What I'm looking forward to the most is the invention of the Prog Rock Membrane, which basically is this little condom you pull over your ears. All music that reaches your ears, be that Dolly Parton, Wiz Khalifa or Willie Nelson, will then magically be transformed into prog. You will be able to program it into whatever setting that best suit your tastes too - like 'The Emerson Effect', 'Henry Cow Mayhem' as well as the more docile touch of 'Jon Anderson Lube'.
Dolly Parton Prog? That would be the greatest thing since Tammy Winnett jammed with the Justified Ancients of Mu Mu... 

Your beauty is beyond compare eclipsed with the younger moon attained
With flaming locks of auburn hair changed as almost strained 
Your smile is like a breath of spring 
I crucified my hate and held the word within
Your voice is soft like summer rain 
We hear the total mass retain

Get Up, Get Down Jolene...

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Edited by Dean - April 27 2015 at 05:11
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2015 at 05:09
LOL

Just the thought of Dolly and Jon's respective lyrical themes clashing is....erm..LOLLOLLOL
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2015 at 05:14
Originally posted by Guldbamsen Guldbamsen wrote:

LOL

Just the thought of Dolly and Jon's respective lyrical themes clashing is....erm..LOLLOLLOL
...and now I can't get the damn thing out of my head Ouch ... LOLLOLLOL

Get Up, Get Down, Jolene.

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