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SteveG 
Forum Senior Member 
Joined: April 11 2014 Location: Kyiv In Spirit Status: Offline Points: 20478 |
 Posted: July 29 2016 at 09:57 |
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Edit: accurate/standards.
Edited by SteveG - July 29 2016 at 12:07 |
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micky
Special Collaborator 
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46828 |
Posted: July 29 2016 at 14:26 |
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yeah... that was the water cooler conversation in D.C today. How the Democratic picked up what the Republicans completely left up on the floor. As one wonk said... that was the best GOP convention for all the flag waving and displays of patriotism on display. I'll be very... very curious to see what the post convention bounce in the polls will be. If any... it is hard to think that in this polarized nation we have become that there were that many undecided.. however it does seem that undecided were definitely put off by the shear ugliness of the GOP and inspired by the hope on full display in the Democratic. I'm curious to see just how many undecided there really are. one interesting note that was not lost on anyone and was another hot topic of conversation today.. for a party for a generation (or more) characterized (fairly?.. I was the only ..THE one SINGLE person in my unit that voted for Clinton in '92  ) as weak on security. All the military leaders coming out in support of Clinton...praising her ability to lead.. and conversely.. there was not a single one brought out in Cleveland to say that Hillary is unfit to lead this nation.Edited by micky - July 29 2016 at 14:28 |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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HackettFan
Forum Senior Member
Joined: June 20 2012 Location: Oklahoma Status: Offline Points: 7946 |
Posted: July 29 2016 at 15:20 |
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Relying on recollection now, but I remember listening and noting how Hillary managed to do what she needed to do for the sake of unity with the Sanders voters (myself being one). She put across several things much as Bernie did. No hint of Bill's triangulation. She spoke of healthcare as being a human right, for instance (something that moves me). She was of course going to incorporate many of Sanders' positions, but it was key that she say it with conviction and not as simply a "job interview". I think she did it quite well with conviction from beginning to end. Way to go.
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A curse upon the heads of those who seek their fortunes in a lie. The truth is always waiting when there's nothing left to try. - Colin Henson, Jade Warrior (Now)
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micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46828 |
Posted: July 29 2016 at 16:10 |
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that is the one single thing one can take away from Philadelphia...
a very unified party.. the attention give to the handfuls of 'Bern or busters' is many many times over in proportion to their numbers. So what if they choose not to vote .. as has been noted. In many cases they were never part of the party.. until brought into the process by Bernie. outweighed by the many new voters, both young or otherwise un-engaged politically.. who again.. were never part of the Party who will be voting for Hillary. does Trump gain.. sure... he'll gain a few Anarcho-Dem votes.. but those are more than offset by those traditional Republicans. Perhaps less partisan flavored who are deeply turned off by him, and the evolution of the party into an Angry White person's burdon... who simply see Hillary as the better choice. Baring that.. they go for Johnson.. and one thing I've noticed. In a 4 way race.. Hillary generally gains polling points over Trump over a two way race ie.. more disaffected Republicans are going 3rd party than Democrat.. Edited by micky - July 29 2016 at 16:11 |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46828 |
Posted: July 29 2016 at 16:41 |
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another thing I'll be curious to see post DNC. To see what political historians say...
they did put the RNC among the worse in US history.. where do they put the DNC. my inkling... and being a fair historian in my own right... VERY VERY high up. Why? just how close was this party to falling apart.. in prime time... with a nominee that if not for Trump would be the least liked major party candidate in US history. In 3 1/2 days starting with Michelle Obama's speech they have turned that narrative completely on its fat ass. so time for the next Poll in a trhread series.. dovetails with the first but since I just brought it up. I'm curious what the politically agile of mind think... Gary Johnson and Libertarians... over/under for popular vote percentage in 2016 election. 10% myself.. I think he goes higher. As I noted last night.. we've seen the last of bad HIllary press. They failed on Benghazi and the emails. Not that it really would have made much of a difference.. a large percentage.. especially among her supporters see it as an extension of the endless investigations and SHAM of an impeachment back in the 90's. Really only her haters cared and obviously they never were going to vote for her. It is simply the politics of personal destruction in action... they threw every thing they could against the wall and tried to get it to stick. The only affect it did have was influencing some to dislike her.. yet conversely it made her supporters all the stronger and more passionate. however Trump... his skeletons have not been fully exposed and he has some that could (and do in my mind) far exceed bad judgement... if any of those hit... Johnson gets close to 20% which gets him close to what I think I will kill the Republican Party. 25% grants the Libertarian Party 'major party' status. I wouldn't bet a nickle on the Republican Party against the Libertarian Party if it came down, as it would, a battle for survival in what is a 2 party political system. My guess... 18% Edited by micky - July 29 2016 at 16:45 |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46828 |
Posted: July 30 2016 at 06:43 |
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wonderful article this morning.. and not too tough or insecure not to admit reading it brought tears to my eyes.
Interesting political points to be made of it...but leaving that alone for now for more than than.. it is a deeply human story and is why regardless of how important Sanders speech was, how uplifting Obama's was, or how competant and reassuring Hillary's was... THIS was the highpoint of the Convention. http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/07/seven-minutes-that-shook-the-convention-214126 |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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The Dark Elf
Forum Senior Member
VIP Member Joined: February 01 2011 Location: Michigan Status: Offline Points: 12656 |
Posted: July 30 2016 at 15:28 |
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http://www.vox.com/2016/7/30/12332922/donald-trump-khan-muslim
I'm sorry, but somewhere, sometime, you've just got to know when to shut the hell up. It was bad enough when Donald Trump insulted John McCain, insinuating that McCain was no hero when he had to eject from his plane on a bombing run, broke both arms and legs in the fall, was captured by the Viet Cong, and spent six years in a Vietnamese prison, where he experienced torture, deprivation and lack of medical treatment, but still refused an out-of-sequence early repatriation offer. His war wounds left him with lifelong physical limitations. I don't care if you're a Republican or a Democrat, that takes more guts and is more heroic than anything I can imagine. As I stated, what Trump said was bad enough, particularly for an entitled rich kid who managed to get four (yes 4!) deferments to skate away free from military service in Vietnam. But now he demeans a grieving, patriotic American family of a dead war hero (and a American Muslim war hero at that)? Trump is a douche-bag, plain and simple. You can paint whatever pictures you want. You can make inferences about a person's character. But when an imbecile utterly lacks the wherewithal to cut his losses, offer a heartfelt thank you to the family for their sacrifice and act the least bit presidential - and, you know, be compassionate - this low-life Trump is incapable of making the right choice. He couldn't even remain silent, which would've been an improvement. Not by insinuation, not by allegation, not by political rhetoric has this man proven he is a pompous buffoon, but by his own words. This man should not be running for president. This man needs a muzzle and a leash, which you can purchase from Tiffany's if you'd like. You vote for this guy, I question your sanity. |
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...a vigorous circular motion hitherto unknown to the people of this area, but destined
to take the place of the mud shark in your mythology... |
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micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46828 |
Posted: July 30 2016 at 15:50 |
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yes... this gets more and more interesting...
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/khizr-khan-paul-ryan-mitch-mcconnell-donald-trump-226463 so does anyone in the Republican Party have any leadership qualities... or guts. The wild card of course is not is not simply Donald... it is the voters that put him there. You can't repudiate the candidate without doing so to the voters that put him where he is. Oh the GOP needs to do this..finally say enough to the beast it created on its own... the frenzy of fear, division and anger... or it WILL die as a party. It can't survive being a party of racists, bigots, nativists and zealots. Not in this country with the demagraphic changes coming... they will never see the Presidency again if they don't.. and in the mean time.. they do risk an emergence of the Libertarian Party as an alternative for common sense conversatives (as much as I choke on my beer typing that...) Edited by micky - July 30 2016 at 15:51 |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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The Dark Elf
Forum Senior Member
VIP Member Joined: February 01 2011 Location: Michigan Status: Offline Points: 12656 |
Posted: July 30 2016 at 16:32 |
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Actually, what is frightening is the number of people who agree with Trump hook, line and stinker. Did you see this from the Right's blond, blue-eyed Hitlerette Ann Coulter: It's not just what she said (and thankfully other conservative writers called her out), but page through the readers' comments for that article. It is dismaying how many people are rabidly following along in goose-step fashion. People have lost their minds. And As I've stated a hundred times, I am no fan of Hillary. Not in the least. I'd like to be allowed a vote-do-over and get rid of both of these slugs. This is the worst election I can recall, and at 56 years old, I can remember some pretty horrible ones (Ford/Carter and Bush/Dukakis spring to mind). Hell, I'd vote for John McCain if he suddenly appeared on the ballot. But that ain't happening, and in the absence of any other choices (like throwing my vote away on the Green or Libertarian parties), I will be forced to vote against Trump, simply because I don't want him to select a supreme court justice in the mold of the thankfully-deceased Antonin Scalia. I am liberal about some things and conservative about others. No one represents me as far as I'm concerned. And that's what's screwed up about America: No one really gives a damn about the middling majority. No one compromises for the good of the country any more.
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...a vigorous circular motion hitherto unknown to the people of this area, but destined
to take the place of the mud shark in your mythology... |
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micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46828 |
Posted: July 30 2016 at 16:41 |
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I've been down that road in the other thread...
needless to say I agree with you. In the words of Lindsey Graham....'my party has gone batsh*t crazy' If not so scary and such a threat to this nation, the values we ALL should hold dear which make it what it is, was.. and should be,...I'd get a hell out of a laugh out of it. The Republicans created this monster.. and for years controled it by feeding the frenzy of anger, division, even hate by tossing a few bones to the social wackos.. well it finally came to the point where they lost control of the monster... and couldn't stem democracy .. voters in action who simply didn't elect another establisment stooge who'd pay lip service to the hate and fear they have stoked to get the base motivated and voting... thus you have the situation you have now... Edited by micky - July 30 2016 at 16:46 |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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JJLehto
Prog Reviewer 
Joined: April 05 2006 Location: Tallahassee, FL Status: Offline Points: 34550 |
Posted: July 31 2016 at 00:05 |
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I keep seeing that Trump got the bigger bounce. On one hand I get it, Clinton is, by nature, not super exciting while Trump, twisted as it is, can whip a crowd up. On the other hand, it's appalling Trump continues to get support at all, let alone have the bigger bounce, as he has now insulted the Father of a dead veteran (well he's Muslim so clearly it dont count) and my old roommate posted an article citing Trump insulting/bad mouthing first responders.... I am 10000% convinced he has no want to be President and is trying his hardest to alienate people. Look, no one (who's reasonable/not out to stir sh*t) questions her ability to lead and all that. I mean "But her experience!!!" is pretty much 90% of what I hear from people who support her But yeah, shame the Dems are the "weak" party...Personally I always felt I'd feel safer under a Dem President because they are less likely to start a major war, antagonize the middle east, blow our intl image etc etcOh and yeah the speech was truly brilliant. No doubt Obama did just that, filled the void in the Republican Party. Though one of my other favorite moments was when he mentioned the Marine who proudly serves his country and no longer needs to hide his husband. I almost lost it on that one. And back to the "Angry Muslim with a thick accent" as Ann Coulter called it
 that was great. When he said Trump needs to read up on the Constitution and "he can have mine" and whipped it out from his pocket, f**king epic. His "You have sacrificed nothing!" I was actually applauding sitting in my house. So awesome. |
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micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46828 |
Posted: July 31 2016 at 06:15 |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46828 |
Posted: July 31 2016 at 06:58 |
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so as we all know, for right or wrong it the way elections are determined, popular vote is a historical footnote.
what matters is 270... and we all should know, but perhaps some don't . Numbers do matter and something on the order of 4/5ths of the states and their votes are set that the election comes down to a handful of battleground states.There is a website that is the ultimate in political porn (sorry.. no Hillary pics  .. my signature will have to suffice)... http://www.270towin.com/ note it has all the possible winning (and tie) combinations, the paths, each candidate needs to win. Since HIllary and the democrats have a good sized lead in the already decided states... obviously as you can see Trump has to win more of the undecided states thus he has fewer winning combinations. The site has 10 undecided states set up.... Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. however the cool thing is... on that website you can fiddle with the states and get adjusted paths and winning combinations. Out of those 10... personally I think only 8 really are in play... with 1 very close to being removed but will leave undecided for now. Wisconsin... Trump isn't winning that state. He bombed in the GOP primary.. it has its own Senate race which will mobilize Democratic voters and obviously has a history of voting Democratic even when the GOP has put forth.. well... some one qualified and with the temperament to actually be President. Colorado... that state has been shifting left and again Trump bombed there in the primaries... if Colorado would really be considered in play... one can add states like Arizona and Georgia for Clinton has as much chance of picking off those red states off as Trump does Colorado. Taking that off the list.. Virginia.. obviously I have followed the trends and the pulse of my own state very closely I think I know it pretty well. One pictures sums this state up well...  all those red areas... with so little population... Northern Viginia is highly educated, very wealthy and is highly populated and has swung the state from Red to Blue. Virginia has a high population of black, latino and a rapidly crowing Muslim population (see the Khan family). It is highly likely Trump and the GOP have driven the rapdily growing Muslim demographic population into the Democratic camp (note Michigan which has the highest Muslim population is no longer in the undecided columns). Trump has done very poorly with higher educated voters.. the temptation is great to remove Virginia from the undecided category but we won't. He can still win.. but is highly unlikely to do so.. but for the sake of showing realistic paths to 270.. we'lll leave it undecided to give Trump a better chance.... so going back to the website.. if we remove Wisconson and Colorado from the undecided list what happens.. Trump goes from 72 winning combinations and 15 tie combinations to.. 11 and 3. If we did change VA.. make that a whooping 3 combinations and only 1 tie. We'll leave Virginia undecided and come back to those combinations with Colorado and Wisconson taken out later.. after I get a chance to crunch those numbers.. |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46828 |
Posted: July 31 2016 at 07:41 |
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ahh.. I was mistaken... I guess there has been post convention polling done at the national level.. one of many.. still encouraging though. There were undecideds out there...
http://politicalwire.com/2016/07/31/poll-shows-7-point-bounce-for-clinton/ |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46828 |
Posted: July 31 2016 at 08:17 |
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on second thought... lets see what the map looks like moving Wisconson and Virginia to the decided column and move Colorado to undecided. I know Virginia obviously better than I do Colorado... ie. I'd be willing to bet my paycheck on Virginia staying blue.. I wouldn't do that with Colorado.
So if that were the case and both Wisconson and Virginia stay blue.. pretty much given's at this point and time considering history and demographics. that leaves 11 winning combinations for Trump and 2 ties. one thing that jumps out... if he loses Florida.. it is game over if he loses Pennsylvania... and it is strongly likely he will. The Democrats are looking at a nearly half million vote advantage in the Philadelphia area. He has to win Colorado or it is game over. That is why I strongly suspect GOP leaders and donors.. have privately written off the election. Realistically.. Trump has no realistic path to 270. He does have to sweep Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida to have any chance. Possible.. but HIGHLY unlikely. Even if he did sweep all 3... if Wisconsin and Virginia go blue Hillary STILL has 3 winning combinations...almost as many as Trump's 5 and note.. if Colorado went blue... that becomes 2 combinations for Hillary.. 2 for Trump Edited by micky - July 31 2016 at 08:31 |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46828 |
Posted: July 31 2016 at 08:40 |
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yet another reason.. I've seen this thought process laid out twice. Once by each side. Bush Light and Chuck Schumer. For obvious reasons it is the pink elephant in the room neither side wants to speak of.
The possibility of a historic.. perhaps unprecedented era of dominance by one party over another. One reason I've hammered home the notion that the GOP has to change.. or die.. they are losing... the demographic battle. The only way to get back in the game is turn their backs, not on Trump...but the voters that put him there. Trump will go away... those voters are the core of the GOP base today will remain. The politically ignorant, angry, bigots, racists, nativists, and evangelicals. You simply can't appeal to both. The electoral math is plain to see if one simply looks at it... the problem is long term health means short term political suicide and if we know anything about policians.. especially Repblicans.. long term thoughts and goals are not a strong suit of them. Global warmning.. f**k it... I'll be out of office beforre that hits... the coming era of Democratic dominance.. who wants to be THAT guy to sacrifice his cushy job and call out his party, nearly 20 years of cultivating their votes, and reverse course and disowning hate, fear and division. hah.. as I've said since the first post.. interesting days and years to come in American politics Edited by micky - July 31 2016 at 08:48 |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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Dean
Special Collaborator
Retired Admin and Amateur Layabout Joined: May 13 2007 Location: Europe Status: Offline Points: 37575 |
Posted: July 31 2016 at 11:19 |
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We interrupt this non-stop extended edition of Pre-pre-pre-Election Night Vox Pops Soap Box Analysis Special with your host Micky for an important message from our sponsor:
...Eat more Prog folks, it's G-r-r-reat!
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What?
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Vompatti
Forum Senior Member
VIP Member Joined: October 22 2005 Location: elsewhere Status: Offline Points: 67381 |
Posted: July 31 2016 at 11:30 |
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Most items are perfectly safe to eat past the expiration date.
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micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46828 |
Posted: July 31 2016 at 11:41 |
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my god the debates are going to be SO MUCH FUN!!!
http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/31/politics/donald-trump-russia-ukraine-crimea-putin/index.html |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46828 |
Posted: July 31 2016 at 11:43 |
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 I did need a break before getting into part 2 of where I was going with that... |
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American Politics the 2016 edition
Topic Options
Dean wrote:
sorry to interrupt, but the middle ground is not an appeal moderation, nor is it the mean or average between two extremes. What it is is the removal of dogma and blind obedience to one or other extreme (which has never worked and will never work). Since "somewhere in the middle" actually entails taking what does work from each extreme there are many combinations and permutations of what the middle ground comprises of so no two middle-ground solutions are the same and that presents a bit of an identity problem.