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lazland View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2016 at 16:23
Originally posted by JJLehto JJLehto wrote:

Originally posted by rogerthat rogerthat wrote:

Originally posted by Atkingani Atkingani wrote:

Since it's not a choice of persons (politicians) where a simple majority is needed but instead a choice of government policy then a qualified majority should be needed IMO. At least 60% of the voters witha turnout of 70% minimum, maybe more.


Sort of what I proposed too in the other thread on whether democracy works. Simple majority is not adequate to represent what the people at large want in this case. 

Yeah, it does feel kinda weird that an action of this gravity, with such potential implications, can be decided by 52% of the population. 
I get that's democracy but yeah does seem like maybe something this massive should be more than a simple majority vote. 


How else would you do it? A minority? A panel of "experts"? A consensus of government? A tyranny? A measure of applause at gigs? By visiting the Sybil? By emptying your bollocks and seeing how far it flows after a damned good play?

Seriously, I really do wonder sometimes.

If a referendum is called, however stupidly, and this one was the most massive shot in the foot in modern British history, the only way you can measure it is by a majority of voters. Whether you like the result, or not.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2016 at 16:30

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2016 at 19:42
Originally posted by lazland lazland wrote:

Originally posted by JJLehto JJLehto wrote:

Originally posted by rogerthat rogerthat wrote:

Originally posted by Atkingani Atkingani wrote:

Since it's not a choice of persons (politicians) where a simple majority is needed but instead a choice of government policy then a qualified majority should be needed IMO. At least 60% of the voters witha turnout of 70% minimum, maybe more.


Sort of what I proposed too in the other thread on whether democracy works. Simple majority is not adequate to represent what the people at large want in this case. 

Yeah, it does feel kinda weird that an action of this gravity, with such potential implications, can be decided by 52% of the population. 
I get that's democracy but yeah does seem like maybe something this massive should be more than a simple majority vote. 


How else would you do it? A minority? A panel of "experts"? A consensus of government? A tyranny? A measure of applause at gigs? By visiting the Sybil? By emptying your bollocks and seeing how far it flows after a damned good play?

Seriously, I really do wonder sometimes.

If a referendum is called, however stupidly, and this one was the most massive shot in the foot in modern British history, the only way you can measure it is by a majority of voters. Whether you like the result, or not.

You actually answered it yourself there by using the phrase majority of voters instead of majority of those who voted.

Because an alternative to a simple majority, (which Guigo, Matan and Brian used correctly to describe a majority as the option with the most votes), is an absolute majority which means a majority of all those eligible to vote and not just those who did vote but still has a 50% winning threshold. In this referendum that would mean the leave votes would only have achieved 37% of the votes and would have lost, however the remain votes would have been 35% but they would have won. This may seem unfair and undemocratic but actually it isn't, the consequence that all abstentions and spoilt ballots count in favour of the No vote should motivate those who support the referendum to vote on it. Amusingly the European Parliament requires an absolute majority of all MEPs whether they bother to vote or not. This is how wasters like Hannon and Fartrage could stay in the pub and still have their couldn't give a toss No votes counted.

Another rational and perfectly reasonable way would be to require a clear majority, which is termed a supermajority, such as a three-fifths majority or a two-thirds majority which means setting a value greater than 50% needed to win such as 60% or 66.667%. The results of the 1975 EC membership referendum and 2011 AV referendum would have been unaffected by setting a two-thirds requirement, but not this one. When electing a pope the catholic church uses a two-thirds supermajority.

The other is a way for spoilt ballots to be counted so they would actually mean something more than a token protest. There would have to be some qualification but in general they would count against both sides making it harder for either to achieve the 50% majority.

Edited by Dean - June 26 2016 at 01:11
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2016 at 20:16
Originally posted by JJLehto JJLehto wrote:

Originally posted by rogerthat rogerthat wrote:

Originally posted by Atkingani Atkingani wrote:

Since it's not a choice of persons (politicians) where a simple majority is needed but instead a choice of government policy then a qualified majority should be needed IMO. At least 60% of the voters witha turnout of 70% minimum, maybe more.

Sort of what I proposed too in the other thread on whether democracy works. Simple majority is not adequate to represent what the people at large want in this case. 

Yeah, it does feel kinda weird that an action of this gravity, with such potential implications, can be decided by 52% of the population. 
I get that's democracy but yeah does seem like maybe something this massive should be more than a simple majority vote. 

I don't know what the situation exactly is in UK where it concerns amending the Constitution (since we borrowed much of our Constitution, among other things, from the UK) but any amendment to the Constitution requires a 2/3rd majority in both houses and a simple majority is not enough.  It is the reason we are not able to pass an Act to have a single GST tax on all transactions (as opposed to excise on manufacture, VAT on sale, service tax on services etc) because the ruling party lacks the numbers in the upper house. Surely a decision to leave the EU is one of comparable gravity.  
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 25 2016 at 20:19
Originally posted by The Dark Elf The Dark Elf wrote:


That is exactly my point, RT. In an Islamic state you run the risk of insulting, provoking, offending or infuriating Muslims with even the most simplest things we take for granted in secular societies.

Take for instance how the Germans have had to brown-nose Erdogan while stepping all over German citizens' right to free speech (I guess free speech is not covered under EU bylaws). Yes, Erdogan, a portrait of a supposed "moderate" Muslim politician. That is, until he starts acting like Muhammad himself, proclaiming political fatwas against anyone printing a cartoon documenting his Turkish buffoonery.

Radical Islamists in Turkey attacked a Radiohead party at a local record store and beat the sh*t out of people with pipes and bottles for simply wanting to hear the new album. No one was arrested. But when people protested the unwarranted violence in this alleged democratic country, they were met by police with water cannons.

Erdogan's comments were telling in regards to the attack: "Using brute force to interfere is as wrong as organising an event spilling onto the street during Ramadan."

Because, of course, it's more important that we don't offend the Muslim majority than it is assuring secularists have the freedom to live their lives without Islam. Or drink a beer on a holiday for a religion that is not your own.


Ah, Turkey.  Used to be a favourite example for Muslim apologists to cite until Erdogan happened.  I understand up to a point where the apologists come from because they fear all Muslims getting painted with the same brush.  But I do find this basic approach of Muslims hypocritical to the core - where they want religious freedom including the right to wear the hijab wherever they migrate to but deny religious freedom to people from other faiths.


Edited by rogerthat - June 25 2016 at 20:23
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2016 at 01:46
Originally posted by Dean Dean wrote:

Originally posted by Sean Trane Sean Trane wrote:

Despite owing quite a bit to London and Winston, That's what De Gaulle did in 63 and 67 (tha latter is less well-known) ... so they had to wait until he died to get in... Soooooo, more than WC, CDG is turning over in his grave to tell us "I told you so".
Meh, Winston Spencer Churchill and Charles de Gaulle are both dead. We buried them and they should remain dead and buried.


yup, both of them did a fair bit of political mistakes and a few good decisions. I'm not sure I wish them RIP to either.

(in case you wonder: WC did "name" the most retrograd and stupid tribe to caretake and protect for the muslim holy grounds, and did so purposely because he thought it was good to emlpower these religious retrograd imbecils Saudis. and if he wanted to give the Jews their own country, he should've given them a piece of East Anglia, instead of creating permanent (and easily foreseeable) havoc in Palestine)

Originally posted by lazland lazland wrote:

Originally posted by Sean Trane Sean Trane wrote:

Originally posted by The T The T wrote:

Originally posted by Sean Trane Sean Trane wrote:

This Brexit (if it does ever happen) will only be effective in two years' time, so there is plenty of time for England (not the UK) to wake up and realize that its low class should simply not be allowed to have a matter in politics (check the link below for the stats by regions & by income)

I understand where you're coming from, but isn't this the same as saying democracy doesn't work? (I'm not saying it does, I'm just asking). Also, isn't this saying only the privileged ones should have a say? 


The thing is that a good deal of those "leavers" (Leave voters) are generally dole-recipients that haven't worked for decades (and looking quite like the husband in that "Keeping Appearances" sitcom), not knowing a thing about the EU and its benefit... So this was mostly because of the fear of them losing the job they haven't got (and will never have, since they're totally un-employable anymore) to Eastern european, when the immigration that forbade them to find a job was comming from the Commonwealth for decades before that... In other words, many of these "leavers are parasite and leaches.

But them idiots are tooooo stoooopid to realize that, too busy sipping in Farrage's barrage of insults and hatred served in a beer can, while liking Boris' dick.

Sooo you really think low-lifes like those deserve a full vote, like the people contributing actively to society??Confused
Personally, I'm not so sure...


If this is meant to be a joke........If not

I despair.


In some ways, this is humour (as is obvious), but.... not entirely either

I guess this is more a topic from the Does democracy work? Or... threadGeek


I think it's a surprise to no-one here, that I am a leftwinger, and believe me, I felt major pain for them legal coalminers and steelmillers strikers being charged by the armed squads ordrered by Maggie Bitcher. And she "destroyed" many of those citizens' very soul in doing so....

But TBH, after over 30 years, a lot of them never recycled themselves usefully in the "new society" created by her (and I won't cast stones at them for not "joining" something they didn't like), but many of them victims of yesteryears have become today's liabilities (just expecting or demanding lifelong handouts), especially that many of them are becoming (or have become) UK's rednecks, listening to dangerous hatred speeches from a buffoon like the Trump look-alike Boris or the Geert Wilders look-alike Farrage


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2016 at 02:33
The "Racists" card and argument is being dished out in the press but amazingly, I voted Leave not out of bigotry or inferiority complex. I don't feel the EU has worked best for the UK but unfortunately over the past 40 years, we've had a breed of complacent politicians who didn't listen to the concerns of their own people and this is the result.
If the EU was truly democratic there wouldn't be a problem with countries being able to leave, or even expressing an interest to go. Isn't that democracy?
I hope other countries get the chance to say how they feel.
Not the poorly attended European elections but more referendums.
But then Ireland got asked three times so there could be another referendum.
While ignoring how countries in the EU have said "Fine! Piss off then!".

There's more I'd like to see. I'd like to see a referendum on the Monarchy next. I'll be voting "Rid" for that one too!
Such contempt for people recently! "UK Rednecks"! Not surprised or offended but it's not as simple as the explanations given. We can survive outside the EU, but we really need our MPs to bring their A game as the saying goes.

And if it was all about racism, then why the delight at Nigel Farage being shut out of the cross party negotiations? I spoke to others who voted Leave and they hate him more than the Tories, so it was clearly about something else that hasn't been reported.
And way to diminish the hard work of the British Labour movement by saying we got it all from the EU!
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2016 at 02:41
^^^ and that's why the EU project will ultimately fail in its current form, because the leadership of the nation states is not seen to be representing their own people but rather the interpretation of what a panel of elites believe to be the "greater good"

Merkel brought in hundreds of thousands of angry young Muslim men of military age into her country, completely unchecked because she thought it would be a nice and charitable thing to do (and was probably terririfed of appearing to be racist) but when some of those men started sexually assaulting German women in the street, it further fuelled the rise of Germany's far right.

If you don't want the far right to flourish, don't give them reason to, and unfortunately that's what the EU is doing...inadvertently or otherwise.. (?)

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2016 at 03:05
Originally posted by Dean Dean wrote:

Originally posted by lazland lazland wrote:

Originally posted by JJLehto JJLehto wrote:

Originally posted by rogerthat rogerthat wrote:

Originally posted by Atkingani Atkingani wrote:

Since it's not a choice of persons (politicians) where a simple majority is needed but instead a choice of government policy then a qualified majority should be needed IMO. At least 60% of the voters witha turnout of 70% minimum, maybe more.


Sort of what I proposed too in the other thread on whether democracy works. Simple majority is not adequate to represent what the people at large want in this case. 

Yeah, it does feel kinda weird that an action of this gravity, with such potential implications, can be decided by 52% of the population. 
I get that's democracy but yeah does seem like maybe something this massive should be more than a simple majority vote. 


How else would you do it? A minority? A panel of "experts"? A consensus of government? A tyranny? A measure of applause at gigs? By visiting the Sybil? By emptying your bollocks and seeing how far it flows after a damned good play?

Seriously, I really do wonder sometimes.

If a referendum is called, however stupidly, and this one was the most massive shot in the foot in modern British history, the only way you can measure it is by a majority of voters. Whether you like the result, or not.

You actually answered it yourself there by using the phrase majority of voters instead of majority of those who voted.

Because an alternative to a simple majority, (which Guigo, Matan and Brian used correctly to describe a majority as the option with the most votes), is an absolute majority which means a majority of all those eligible to vote and not just those who did vote but still has a 50% winning threshold. In this referendum that would mean the leave votes would only have achieved 37% of the votes and would have lost, however the remain votes would have been 35% but they would have won. This may seem unfair and undemocratic but actually it isn't, the consequence that all abstentions and spoilt ballots count in favour of the No vote should motivate those who support the referendum to vote on it. Amusingly the European Parliament requires an absolute majority of all MEPs whether they bother to vote or not. This is how wasters like Hannon and Fartrage could stay in the pub and still have their couldn't give a toss No votes counted.

Another rational and perfectly reasonable way would be to require a clear majority, which is termed a supermajority, such as a three-fifths majority or a two-thirds majority which means setting a value greater than 50% needed to win such as 60% or 66.667%. The results of the 1975 EC membership referendum and 2011 AV referendum would have been unaffected by setting a two-thirds requirement, but not this one. When electing a pope the catholic church uses a two-thirds supermajority.

The other is a way for spoilt ballots to be counted so they would actually mean something more than a token protest. There would have to be some qualification but in general they would count against both sides making it harder for either to achieve the 50% majority.
d

An absolute majority qualifying vote would only work, IMO, where you had a system of compulsory voting, which would have to be rigidly applied. Then you would have that utopia you describe, a true majority of everyone who has participated. Having a system whereby an option gets only 35% of those eligible to vote, but "wins" against an option which gets 38% of those eligible to vote strikes me as not being particularly democratic, and I would make the point that, from time immemorial, people have been able in this, and other, countries to abstain. This is a perfectly acceptable choice, and should, really, have a box to tick on the ballot paper.

I am also familiar with the "supermajority" concept, having participated in more card votes at civil service trade union conferences than was good for my physical and mental health. To get a change to the rules through at conference requires a two thirds majority in favour on a vote based upon the number of members you are representing at conference, thus, of course, skewing said vote in favour of those branches and delegates who have the largest number of members. Some cynical folk might argue that introducing a supermajority voting system for referenda would be a rather convenient way of keeping the status quo and resisting change. Such cynics would, of course, be right.

I will also resist commenting in detail on the delicious irony of a committed agnostic, and veteran of many threads discussing such issues on PA, using the Papal electoral system as an example to support his arguments here.

I know that there are a lot of people unhappy with the result, but a majority of those voting voted to come out, and I reckon most folk in this country would accept that this was a democratic mandate, even if they are unhappy with said mandate.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2016 at 03:54

It's quite likely that all this commotion is a warning shot. In the end, the UK will probably stay in the EU, one way or another. As for laws and regulations that are apparently preventing this: they will be disregarded.

The EU has, especially in the last few years, gone to desperate measures to expand, and the criteria for accepting new countries have been bent to breaking point. The disastrous financial state of Greece was set aside, and the eastern European countries' economic states didn't fit the requirements by a long shot, and still they were accepted.

So, as rules and regulations have been shown to be nothing more than window dressing, I can't imagine that the UK will be excluded by force, regardless of the referendum. It just doesn't fit the EU's colossal expansion policies. The strain on the EU itself would be immense and in a few months time, the UK will be accepted back.

But the concessions granted exclusively to the UK up until now will then probably be a thing of the past.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2016 at 04:01
^^^

I think much depends on how many nations now announce referendums in the wake of Brexit.  If in the coming couple of months or so, the situation gets too fluid for EU's comfort, threatening to leave the EU may well prove to be a winning gambit for UK and bring about a long term curtailment of the executive powers of the European Commission.  Indications are that that may transpire.  I somehow don't see EU finding it that easy to browbeat UK the way they did Greece.  They already made the fatal error of not distinguishing between Grexit and Brexit in terms of magnitude and underestimated the shivers the latter would send down global markets.  At one point, the DAX had fallen more than the FTSE on Friday; so much then for Brexit not being EU's problem.  And if I understand correctly, UK is already stalling and procrastinating the amendment to Article 50.  That is, more time for Euroskeptic sentiment to boil over in other nations and push EU further on the backfoot.  
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2016 at 04:12
I can't really imagine there to be any further European referendums held undert the same criteria as they were instated in the UK.
If there are to be any, the respective governments will have to make damn sure that things go their way, i.e. the instatement of percentage clauses etc. The UK calamitiy just won't happen again in another country.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2016 at 04:17
Originally posted by npjnpj npjnpj wrote:

I can't really imagine there to be any further European referendums held undert the same criteria as they were instated in the UK.
If there are to be any, the respective governments will have to make damn sure that things go their way, i.e. the instatement of percentage clauses etc. The UK calamitiy just won't happen again in another country.

I wouldn't be so sure.  The Greek referendum (which was in effect a vote to exit EU if that's what it took) was a prelude to the Brexit.  And the Brexit may in turn pave the way for further exits.  The problem with trying to 'game' a referendum with tough stipulations to 'obtain' a 'desired' result is if the people really do want to leave, there may be riots if the referendum doesn't go their way.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2016 at 04:29
That's a very scary thought.
The only way to prevent such riots would then be to refuse any such referendums. After all, proposed referendums on all sorts of issues, demanded by opposition parties, are disregarded on an almost weekly basis.
The likelihood of riots occurring based on a non-referendum would by smaller than one where voters would feel that a majority's opinions were being ignored.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2016 at 04:34
A better solution would be (a) for the national politicians to start listening to voters drawn to far right populists instead of pretending they are loony bats to be ignored, esp so because many of these feel left out by the forces of globalisation and (b) for the Eurozone to relax stiff fiscal stipulations.  If the Eurozone starts to perform better, that in itself will ease the pressure on low/working class citizens and keep the larger EU going.  Although they have done so, UK didn't have such great reasons to leave the EU as do some of the countries bearing the brunt of Euro austerity.  They can't even print their way out of trouble.  They have, unlike UK, truly given up their sovereignty and paid a heavy price for it.  This issue needs to be urgently addressed to stall the breakup of the Eurozone and eventually the EU.  I am not optimistic about that happening but maybe better sense will finally prevail.  The alternative is Mother Russia storming back into EU, well, not storming back but slithering in like a wily serpent.  Putin has probably been waiting for this all his life.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2016 at 04:40
I feel the austerity hawks have completely ignored the geo political ramifications of this.  They probably reasoned losing the EU's most reluctant member wouldn't be a big deal.  I hope they and not I are right about that but the history of mankind shows the pathetic inability of people entrusted with leadership to learn from past mistakes.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2016 at 04:46
Originally posted by JJLehto JJLehto wrote:

I heard, any of our UK friends can confirm or deny, lots of "white working class people many of which have probably not seen a migrant worker" voted for leave, and seems there was both conservative and labor support.
Like all stats, it's partially true but to be honest all white people look the same. LOL

Your quote is from Tory MP Anna Soubry who squarely blamed the Labour Party for the failure of the Remain campaign rather than take joint responsibility for the fiasco. However she was right when she said: "They are not going to listen to a liberal Tory like me..." - but she was speaking in unqualified terms without actually looking at any extant voter demographics or actual migrant statistics, she merely observed that the many of the parliamentary constituencies that voted leave were Labour held constituencies. She made a typically Tory presumption that Labour voters are white and working class, which is crass.

We must be cautious when analysing the poll results because it was a secret ballot - we do not know who voted for what, we can only surmise from the general demographics for each recorded constituency and make some parallels. 

For example areas that have seen an influx of migrants generally voted remain, areas with little or no migrant influx voted generally leave leading the Guardian to comment that fear of immigration drove the leave vote, not immigration itself... but is that a real correlation? Many of those areas that voted remain also have a higher non-migrant ethnic population who were eligible to vote (irrespective of Soubry's knee-jerk sound-bite  - for example Hackney voted remain yet only 36% of its population is white and it is a Labour borough).

7% of the UK population was not born in the UK, so count as either migrant or immigrant, and 45% of them are white. As far as the average redneck Brit is concerned they are all Polish if they come from Eastern Europe (only 3% of the migrant population is Eastern European but the Polish get singled out by the rednecks). They probably don't even regard the remaining whites as migrant or immigrant, and that includes all Greek, Italian, Spanish and Portuguese, (Latins are not regarded as separate ethnicity here) and Irish, American, German and White S.Africans that account for over half of the white migrant/immigrant population. 

Last year the largest single group of migrants by nationality was Chinese and I'll wager your average UK redneck doesn't even notice they are here (the total UK Chinese population is only 0.7%).

In terms of ethnicity 12% of the entire country is non-white and Asians make up 60% of that, and most of them either emigrated from somewhere in the British Commonwealth or are second, third or even forth generation descendants thereof. Most were born here but the UK rednecks still call them immigrants.

However, your average UK redneck would never use the term "migrant worker", to them they are all immigrants and none of them work and they all steal jobs from 'decent white people'... i.e., all those migrant and immigrants who are not white (and of course the Polish).

To gauge how grotesquely unpleasant a UK redneck can be, these tweets where made after the Nepalese Earthquake:
The "parasites" he talks of are members of the Nepalese Gurkha Regiment (that has been loyally defending the UK for the past 200 years) who, having served in the British Army, wanted the right to then live in the country on retirement. The self-evident paradox in his abhorrent remarks is pitiful. One arsehole even defaced the "Welcome to Aldershot" signpost so it read "Welcome to Nepaldershot" even though the number of Nepalese resident there is 2,000 out of a population of 36,000 (6%).


Edited by Dean - June 26 2016 at 06:02
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2016 at 04:49
@ Rogerthat: I'm fully in agreement with what you say about the EU and the individual countries' governments having to respond to the concerns of the populations, but I have grave doubts that this is going to happen.

The populations' worries are mainly empoyment and job security, living standards, and the refugee problems and not the bailing out of banks left right and centre, as seems to be the EU's main priority. This may be true or not, but that is the general perception.

But that is the main problem. The EU, apart from pure lip service, does not seem prepared to address or act on these issues. People, especially in the poorer areas feel this every day. It seems that addressing these problems for real requires a shift in the EU's policies, and the EU is just not flexible enough. The EU is run by accountants who are very aware of their powers and deem themselves almost invincible.

I would be very surprised if this were to change.


Edited by npjnpj - June 26 2016 at 04:51
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2016 at 04:55
Originally posted by npjnpj npjnpj wrote:



The populations' worries are mainly empoyment and job security, living standards, and the refugee problems and not the bailing out of banks left right and centre, as seems to be the EU's main priority. This may be true or not, but that is the general perception.

The EU is run by accountants who are very aware of their powers and deem themselves almost invincible.

Nailed it.  This is why I fear the Brexit will be the match stick that ignites the explosion in which EU goes up in flames.  The very fact that far right parties have sprung up in a continent that has had long lasting peace should have been a grave warning but instead of heeding the warnings, the elite has heaped scorn on the supporters of such parties.  Yes, please do that, please point out whatever is bigoted in what the likes of Farage say but please also find out why things have come to such a pass and what can be done about it.  
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npjnpj View Drop Down
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Joined: December 05 2007
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2016 at 04:59
@ Dean: I don't think there is a real immigration problem, it's just artificially constructed by rednecks and right wing extremists for their own political gain.

People are being manipulated into seeing a problem where there isn't one.

How on earth can it be normal to see someone beloning to a different ethnic group and thinking: "There's a threat to me and my family" instead of: "Hey, that's interesting. I wonder where he's from?"


Edited by npjnpj - June 26 2016 at 05:05
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