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omphaloskepsis View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2018 at 09:35
Originally posted by npjnpj npjnpj wrote:

The Trump presidency, the rise of nationalism (see Poland, Hungary, Germany, and many more),
political correctness in its extremes, social justice warriors, social unrest, political unrest, Brexit:
I see all these as an indirect result of globalization, and Trump is just one of many symptoms.

I’ve never been a friend of it, but I acknowledge that it’s something that we have to live with
now. It could have been a great thing, but it’s been mishandled and misused with devastating
results.

Frustrated populations are trying to wind globalization back (see Brexit and the list above in
general), especially the industrial nations whose populations have been the hardest hit, but
it’s headed towards a disaster. In the end, it’s just a desperate attempt to close Pandora’s Box
after someone has thrown the lid away.

I don’t even have the slightest idea of where anyone could even start to solve this.

 

This^  I can agree with.    Frustrated populations desperate to push Globalism back.   Giant corporations and billionaires would love one world government.   Three classes of people-  Rich, Poor slaves, and Police State to punish poor slaves.  No more middle class.     

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2018 at 09:49
Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:


This^  I can agree with.    Frustrated populations desperate to push Globalism back.   Giant corporations and billionaires would love one world government.   Three classes of people-  Rich, Poor slaves, and Police State to punish poor slaves.  No more middle class.     


Yet you voted for trump, the elite corporate billionaire politician who admires fascist dictators like Putin and Kim Jong. if I can think of one politician who leans towards total government control (shut down the press, punish those who protest), trump would be the one.
I didn't vote for Shillary either.

Edited by Easy Money - December 04 2018 at 10:30
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2018 at 10:09
Originally posted by IVNORD IVNORD wrote:

Originally posted by progaardvark progaardvark wrote:



Tax cuts do not eliminate the boom-bust cycle. It's possible we're going into the bust period. And of course, tax cuts produce budget deficits and consequently debt growth

This isn’t always true.

 The aforementioned luxury tax increase actually led to a decrease in tax revenue from those items as people simply stopped buying those items.

 Conversely, the capital gains tax rate cut in the early 80s actually led to a significant increase in revenues from capital gains as people increased their activity in areas that generate capital gains.  This also led to greater employment which of course led to additional tax revenues from other areas (income tax, sales tax, etc). 

 It all depends on what type of tax it is, what the current rate is, what direction it’s going in and by how much, an most importantly the rest of the external environment in which the change is being made. 

 Some tax cuts reduce revenues, some increase them.  At the current time, most taxes are at relatively low rates already, so cuts at the current time would not be expected to generate additional economic activity and thus additional revenue (with the possible exception of the corporate tax rate).


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2018 at 11:10
Originally posted by Easy Money Easy Money wrote:

Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:


This^  I can agree with.    Frustrated populations desperate to push Globalism back.   Giant corporations and billionaires would love one world government.   Three classes of people-  Rich, Poor slaves, and Police State to punish poor slaves.  No more middle class.     


Yet you voted for trump, the elite corporate billionaire politician who admires fascist dictators like Putin and Kim Jong. if I can think of one politician who leans towards total government control (shut down the press, punish those who protest), trump would be the one.
I didn't vote for Shillary either.
 

Again, no I did not vote for Trump.  I didn't believe he would keep his promises.  Such as lowering middle class taxes and not starting wars. I was wrong.  
 

Do you not remember that a little over a year ago, That Trump was threatening Kim Jong?   Trump applied such massive sanctions on North Korea that China couldn't ship coal to North Korea.  Why do you think North Korea is getting rid of it's Nukes?  

Obama sent more journalist's to jail than any president ever.  How many journalists has Trump sent to jail?  


Edited by omphaloskepsis - December 04 2018 at 11:55
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2018 at 11:14
^ You do realize you are the only person in this thread that resorts to using insults. (The above insults were edited out after I posted this, that's an improvement I suppose)
The adults were having an intelligent conversation about taxes before you came back.
Remember your promise to leave if asked, what happened to that promise?

Edited by Easy Money - December 04 2018 at 20:25
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2018 at 12:01
Originally posted by Fischman Fischman wrote:

Originally posted by progaardvark progaardvark wrote:

Originally posted by Fischman Fischman wrote:

But it goes back even further than that... all the way to the beginning of our nation.  Read about the squabbles, badmouthing... and even duels (you know, real duels with guns) between some of our founding fathers.... even before there were Republicans and Democrats.  

This I totally agree with you. I've seen enough political pamphlets from the 19th century to know they were just as brutal back then as they are now. I think it only seems more prevalent today because we are all "hooked" up with social media and the never-ending soundbites of news media, whereas back then (pre-radio and pre-TV), the only source of media was print and word-of-mouth.

Originally posted by Fischman Fischman wrote:

In reality, Bush, while being praised for being a gentlemen, was too nice.  When Congress told him that if he gave them a new Luxury Tax, they'd cut spending, he actually believed them.  He gave them the new tax, but Congress failed to keep their end of the bargain.  The new tax helped stifle economic activity, which plunged the nation into recession and then the Democrats were able to use that recession (borne of the tax they wanted), along with Bush's reversal of his "no new taxes" pledge, to unseat him.  This "gentleman" was duped by one of the most underhanded, and harmful, political maneuverings in our nation's history.  

Ironically, Clinton then repealed that tax and got credit for the associated economic recovery.    More ironically, the one thing the left praises Bush for is the one thing that led to his political undoing.  Check that, there's nothing ironic about it... it is exactly as the left deftly planned and executed.  Politically brilliant... Machiavellian to the max.

Now this I don't agree with. The 1990-1991 recession started before any new taxes were passed and the recovery period started during Bush's last year as president in 1992 after these taxes were already in play, though that recovery was sluggish. The recession had been attributed to a restrictive monetary policy the Fed Reserve had enacted and the economy was showing weakening going back to 1989.

Those tax increases were much more than a "luxury tax." If you are referring to the excise tax, that was a 30% tax on the amount of price over $30,000 for autos, $100,000 for boats, $250,000 for airplanes, and $10,000 for furs. An average new car in 1990 cost about $10,000. But there were a lot more taxes in that bill: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omnibus_Budget_Reconciliation_Act_of_1990

Clinton didn't repeal that bill. It got replaced by another bill in 1993 during his first year as president that raised taxes even more: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omnibus_Budget_Reconciliation_Act_of_1993

So then you have to ask yourself, what did cause that economic boom in the 1990s? Higher taxes? Maybe fudging around tax rates a few percentage points one way or another doesn't necessarily have the impact you think it does.

With the "huge" drop in corporate taxes recently enacted, why is there any unemployment at all? Why is GM planning on cutting 14,000 jobs? Why does the debt grow even faster now than it did two years ago? Makes one wonder, doesn't it?

As to Clinton using Bush's "read my lips" to good effect, name a politician that wouldn't have used it. Pat Buchanan used it extensively in the Republican primary during that election, but most people thought he was too nutty to be president (and hopefully most still do). It also didn't help that Ross Perot ran that year too and probably siphoned off some of the libertarian votes, though many argue it is debatable that Perot had any effect on the outcome.

Yes, the recession had started, which is why that was exactly the wrong time to implement an economically stifling tax.  The direct effects are well documented.  The “rich” simply cut back on buying luxury goods.  The effect was felt across the economic spectrum, but most painfully in the yacht building industry.  The problem was that the reduction in consumption of luxury goods actually led to a net loss in tax revenue.  Worse yet was the loss of jobs… blue collar and administrative jobs… as a result, these sectors not only had less employment, they also now required unemployment, welfare, and they couldn’t contribute to the economy.  This then permeated throughout the economy and the death spiral began.  Yes, an economic downturn was already in the works, but this exacerbated it greatly and submarined any chance of recovering before it got deep. 

 

Don’t get me wrong here; I’m not some rabid anti-tax fanatic, and I reserve judgment on the recent tax cuts.  The US has some of the highest corporate tax rates in the world, so the corporate tax cut may or may not bear out to be a bad thing, but the reduction in the top level income tax was almost certainly uncalled for. 

 

Of course I expected Clinton to harp on “Read My Lips.”  My point was that the whole thing was set up brilliantly.  Indeed Perot hurt as well.  Clinton won (both times) with far less than a majority and there’s no doubt the businessman siphoned off more votes from the Republican side than he did the Democratic side. 



I don't have any doubt that the luxury taxes had an impact on the specific industries they targeted, and sadly, jobs were lost because of this. I personally don't believe they are an effective way of raising revenue and do more harm than good. But I don't believe they had the impact on the overall economy that I think you are suggesting (correct me if I am wrong). 


(for this one I couldn't find the 1992 CRS report by Zimmerman online mentioned in the footnote)
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2018 at 12:02
Originally posted by Fischman Fischman wrote:

Originally posted by IVNORD IVNORD wrote:

Originally posted by progaardvark progaardvark wrote:



Tax cuts do not eliminate the boom-bust cycle. It's possible we're going into the bust period. And of course, tax cuts produce budget deficits and consequently debt growth

This isn’t always true.

 The aforementioned luxury tax increase actually led to a decrease in tax revenue from those items as people simply stopped buying those items.

 Conversely, the capital gains tax rate cut in the early 80s actually led to a significant increase in revenues from capital gains as people increased their activity in areas that generate capital gains.  This also led to greater employment which of course led to additional tax revenues from other areas (income tax, sales tax, etc). 

You're right I shouldn't say that. I should have said "tax cuts ultimately produce budget deficits." That's exactly what happened with the cuts Reagan implemented. In a booming economy tax cuts may produce a budget surplus but when the economy turns it quickly becomes a deficit. That's what happened with Bush and that's why he had to abandon his promise. And of course, the profligacy of the welfare state makes any revenue surplus disappear even faster than they would otherwise.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2018 at 12:06
Originally posted by IVNORD IVNORD wrote:

Originally posted by progaardvark progaardvark wrote:


Now this I don't agree with. The 1990-1991 recession started before any new taxes were passed and the recovery period started during Bush's last year as president in 1992 after these taxes were already in play, though that recovery was sluggish. The recession had been attributed to a restrictive monetary policy the Fed Reserve had enacted and the economy was showing weakening going back to 1989.
The seeds of that recession were sown during the Reagan's presidency. Bush just had to deal with it. The Fed monetary policy did not cause it but made it more painful.

Originally posted by progaardvark progaardvark wrote:

So then you have to ask yourself, what did cause that economic boom in the 1990s? Higher taxes? Maybe fudging around tax rates a few percentage points one way or another doesn't necessarily have the impact you think it does.
The economy was recovering already in 1992. But what made it really booming in the 90s was the manipulation of interest rates by Greenspan with Bill Clinton allegedly playing a pivotal role in that game. The result of that was the dotcom bust and the financial engineering the Fed forced to conduct ever since.
  
Originally posted by progaardvark progaardvark wrote:

With the "huge" drop in corporate taxes recently enacted, why is there any unemployment at all? Why is GM planning on cutting 14,000 jobs? Why does the debt grow even faster now than it did two years ago? Makes one wonder, doesn't it?

Tax cuts do not eliminate the boom-bust cycle. It's possible we're going into the bust period. And of course, tax cuts produce budget deficits and consequently debt growth

I agree with everything you have said here. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2018 at 09:10
Released date are often when it it impacted you but recorded dates are when it really happened...

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2018 at 03:35
I just saw an interview with Amy Klobuchar, who is apparently going to run in 2020 as a democratic presidential candidate.
She's never been on my radar before, but judging by that interview, I find it hard to imagine anyone with less charisma. Is my impression wrong?
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 08 2018 at 01:02
Originally posted by npjnpj npjnpj wrote:

I just saw an interview with Amy Klobuchar, who is apparently going to run in 2020 as a democratic presidential candidate.
She's never been on my radar before, but judging by that interview, I find it hard to imagine anyone with less charisma. Is my impression wrong?

From the outside, I find Biden and Sanders the best bets.  If Democrats don't nominate a tough, salt of the earth candidate, they won't swing the swing states.  A smart, dynamic, progressive, preferably poc or non cisgender male candidate may appeal to NY and Cal but here's where they're playing it wrong.  You could nominate a dead dodo to run as the Democratic candidate and NY and Cal will still turn for it. But you need somebody to win the Midwest states.  Obama won states like NC, Ohio, Florida.  What realistic plan do the Democrats have to replicate that?  Mid terms are over so they better start thinking about it.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 08 2018 at 07:46
Originally posted by rogerthat rogerthat wrote:


From the outside, I find Biden and Sanders the best bets.  If Democrats don't nominate a tough, salt of the earth candidate, they won't swing the swing states.  A smart, dynamic, progressive, preferably poc or non cisgender male candidate may appeal to NY and Cal but here's where they're playing it wrong.  You could nominate a dead dodo to run as the Democratic candidate and NY and Cal will still turn for it. But you need somebody to win the Midwest states.  Obama won states like NC, Ohio, Florida.  What realistic plan do the Democrats have to replicate that?  Mid terms are over so they better start thinking about it.


I'm in agreement with you re Biden and Sanders.  I have heard around that some people are concerned about their ages, however.  And you're right, NY and CA are in anyway, Dems need super strong candidates and now is the time....
Added later....another thing, just like age, it shouldn't matter, but they might be a hard sell in the midwest, being Catholic and Jewish.  None of that matters to me, policy, ability, and a more progressive-leaning-than-not stance does....



Edited by Snicolette - December 09 2018 at 12:41
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 12 2018 at 18:19
I think we have now crossed over.. officially into the Nixonian zone...  even FAUX is sounding the alarm

our President is a crook and is going down.. not for a white lie or committing perjury about an affair (a personal matter).. but actually committing felonies and election fraud

I nearly spilled my beer when I saw this...  this probably marks the moment the Toddler in Chief has jumped the shark 


now the question is...  can the Democrats NOT impeach him even though the smart move is to let a fatally wounded politically President face the voters in 2020... and the bigger question.. what will Senate Republican do...  knowing this might be the last chance they have save their party. Much as Republicans did in the 70's.. can they do it now in these hyperpartisan times? We shall see.. it is looking more likely like we will...

this is history we are living .. thanks again Trump voter.. you know how to pick a winner...




Edited by micky - December 12 2018 at 18:21
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 12 2018 at 19:22
Pretty astonishing when that FAUX is reporting thusly....

Also gotta say I loved seeing Pelosi not back down in that meeting.  
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 12 2018 at 19:39
yeah... let's see if Judge Nappy still has a gig tomorrow.. FAUX gets its ratings and money not by telling its listeners what they need to hear.. but what they have wanted to hear. 

yeah wasn't that some sh*t yesterday...  again..  god bless Trump voter.  Prior to 2016 you could have never dreamed this stuff up...  

though I did love the inside reports that Trump lost his sh*t immediately after that televised fiasco...  threw a major tantrum and threw a bunch of folders of briefings and stuff all over his office.  He knew Chuck and Nancy played him and made him look the fool and the petulant child we all know him to be.

That really was a reminder of what I said some pages back.. there is no politician in D.C. more skilled or savvy than Nancy Pelosi. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 12 2018 at 19:48
Yes, re Pelosi.  She proved her mettle there, not that she should have had to....
Not only did he prove it in that meeting, but underlined it with he behaviour afterwards.  
I loved Pelosi's remarks afterwards...and Schumerwas great also in the meeting.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 12 2018 at 20:01
yep..  I read she knew that was coming.. and was prepared for the hyper 'for the cameras' aggrssive Trump.. 

but let us not forget the silent one of these days.. who casts a shadow over all of this. 

priceless hahhaha



And still reason one why I don't think Trump will be impeached... he scares the HELL out of most rational and sane people.. to say nothing of Democrats. Trump is an idiot and is not an ideologue.. he only cares about himself. Pence is one of those true believers.. and is no idiot. Thus far more dangerous than Trump could ever be to our domestic values. 

questions are already being asked.... would he pardon Trump if Trump was impeached.. or resigned..

unlike Ford.. and likely directly because of Ford because unlike Ford.. Pence has strong ambitions... I don't think he would since it would be (like it was for Ford) a death sentence to win election in his own right as President.. which means..

we may or not see our first conviction by the Senate of a sitting President (I really don't think the will.. because THEY will still have to face voters even after Trump is gone)

but we will most certainly see our first President become a convicted felon and be put in jail when the Feds are done with him after he is no longer President.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 12 2018 at 21:11
Such a bucking fastard.  Pence too. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 13 2018 at 07:16
It wouldn't surprise me if this was just the tip of the iceberg.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 13 2018 at 11:39
You mean these people hate Trump? Why? ;)
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