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micky View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote micky Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 hours 41 minutes ago at 14:52
two things.. one empircal.. elections are local here.. those returns are posted by locality...ie  Democratic/leaning areas

and of course..  Republicans traditionally.. and perhaps even more so this year thanks to self surpression by Trump do not trust votes by.. or voting by mail and will vote in person. Which I understand.. I don't trust the mail.. and will vote in person Tuesday.

as I said.. as it already being said in Florida where a similar trend is underway..  will the Republicans make up the differences on election day with in person voting. That is the 24k question.. as Trump has lost large parts of his 2016 coation.. seniors and suburbanites.. where is he picking up extra voters???

to put those numbers in context.. only assuming 60% of those early voters are democratic? Which is probably low but let's go there

Biden has (at the least) already doubled HRC 2016 votes in Texas and she wasn't that far behind Trump. She cut Obama's losing margin in Texas in 2012 by half.. yes.. the same unpopular uninspiring  and disliked HRC




Edited by micky - 17 hours 37 minutes ago at 14:56
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote npjnpj Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 hours 29 minutes ago at 15:04
Still, I can't help thinking that the worst thing happening to democrats' chances is this constant bombardment of information of how well Biden is doing in the polls.

For the life of me I can't see how polls can even be remotely accurate (even if they do say that they're adjusting according to the gigantic f*ckup of 4 years ago), if the situation (i.e. Covid) is something that has not been seen before in a century. Because of this they're at best standing on shaky foundations. Quicksand, more like.


Edited by npjnpj - 17 hours 21 minutes ago at 15:12
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote micky Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 hours 21 minutes ago at 15:12
you miss several points man...  tens and tens of million of votes have already been cast. The polls are as pointless this year as they were in 2016..  back then few had their minds made up.. now days so very few are undecided.

my point is.. I think the polls could have been off in their modeling. Not a prediction .. but more of a you heard it here first when the election is called by 9pm where everyone is worried about not knowing a winner for days..  I dont' think this election is as close as the polls say it is.. for the reasons I've explained. Polling is obvously of a very small sample size.. and a large part of composing a sample size is previous results.. previous voting habits.  Both are likely blown out of the water due to ... it being 2020 and Trump being Trump.. in 2020. To say nothing of the 2016 egg on the face factor. and likely oversampling Trump voters in polling.

but let put it to you this way..

not a single f**king person is not voting thinking that Biden has it in the bag... everyone thinks Trump can win.. great.. let them think that...  knowing he doesn't have a chance in hell isn't stopping me .. or anyone who is really parsing these numbers .. from voting. 





Edited by micky - 17 hours 20 minutes ago at 15:13
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote npjnpj Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 hours 19 minutes ago at 15:14
I think I posted (edited) my post (added the second paragraph) after you replied. Sorry about that.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rushfan4 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 hours 12 minutes ago at 15:21
No offense micky, but your prediction skills leave a lot to be desired.  Ouch  I enjoy reading your commentary and opinions as you are kind of the mirror image of DJT and we agree on many items, but I will be waiting for the fat lady to sing before I call this election.  I just read an article today that the only poll to report that Trump was winning Wisconsin and Michigan in 2016 has reported that Trump leads in Michigan and is even in Wisconsin.  All the other polls don't even have it all that close in favor of Biden.  This makes me nervous.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote micky Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 hours 59 minutes ago at 15:34
Heart  never realized I ever gave predictions.. I just analyse what I see

but if we are going there..  I did call correctly in 2018.. and also called two years ago (remember my 2020 analysis done back in 2018) that the Republicans were in BIG trouble Senate wise.,. and Trump had little to no path to 270 for one reason.. two most hated candidates in history.. and in 2020 HRC would not be on the ballot.. only Trump.

so if my prediction abilities are fair game.. I'd say I've done pretty damn well.. for the reasons of 2016. Where all missed the boat... I stopped reading analysis.. and starting making my own. ie reading less analysis .. and going straight to hard numbers..which was buried why 2016 was 50-50 ..analysist missed it.. so I did as well

so today.. I just read the hard data... which I saw lead to to a blue landslide in 2018 and big trouble in 2020

and those numbers Scott are telling me the polls are off in 2020..and I've explained why.. and anyone is free to tell me how that is wrong...  and that leads to the conclusion.. a logical one.. that this election is not as close as the polls make it seem.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BaldFriede Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 hours 59 minutes ago at 15:34
Sadly it won't be over when all the votes are counted. And I fear that the more drastic a Trump defeat will be the more he and his supporters will claim the election was rigged and react in uncivil ways.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rushfan4 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 hours 54 minutes ago at 15:39
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

Heart  never realized I ever gave predictions.. I just analyse what I see

but if we are going there..  I did call correctly in 2018.. and also called two years ago (remember my 2020 analysis done back in 2018) that the Republicans were in BIG trouble Senate wise.,. and Trump had little to no path to 270 for one reason.. two most hated candidates in history.. and in 2020 HRC would not be on the ballot.. only Trump.

so if my prediction abilities are fair game.. I'd say I've done pretty damn well.. for the reasons of 2016. Where all missed the boat... I stopped reading analysis.. and starting making my own. ie reading less analysis .. and going straight to hard numbers..which was buried why 2016 was 50-50 ..analysist missed it.. so I did as well

so today.. I just read the hard data... which I saw lead to to a blue landslide in 2018 and big trouble in 2020

and those numbers Scott are telling me the polls are off in 2020..and I've explained why.. and anyone is free to tell me how that is wrong...  and that leads to the conclusion.. a logical one.. that this election is not as close as the polls make it seem.


I seem to recall that you were pretty certain that Liz Warren was a shoo-in to be the Democratic candidate.  Most recent "analysis" I have seen has the Senate being even at 50 - 50.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote micky Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 hours 50 minutes ago at 15:43
it will be interesting to see what happens.. anyone read that article by that Rep up in Michigan. Slotkin. She is not worried about the election.. it is what happens after it that keeps her awake at night.

how Trump will react.. how his supporters do??  That is the 50k question. No one expects Trump to lose gracefully.. be it a close result or a landslide..  there is so much anger in this country. It could get messy and Trump has loved being a match t**ser..  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote micky Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 hours 47 minutes ago at 15:46
Originally posted by rushfan4 rushfan4 wrote:

Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

Heart  never realized I ever gave predictions.. I just analyse what I see

but if we are going there..  I did call correctly in 2018.. and also called two years ago (remember my 2020 analysis done back in 2018) that the Republicans were in BIG trouble Senate wise.,. and Trump had little to no path to 270 for one reason.. two most hated candidates in history.. and in 2020 HRC would not be on the ballot.. only Trump.

so if my prediction abilities are fair game.. I'd say I've done pretty damn well.. for the reasons of 2016. Where all missed the boat... I stopped reading analysis.. and starting making my own. ie reading less analysis .. and going straight to hard numbers..which was buried why 2016 was 50-50 ..analysist missed it.. so I did as well

so today.. I just read the hard data... which I saw lead to to a blue landslide in 2018 and big trouble in 2020

and those numbers Scott are telling me the polls are off in 2020..and I've explained why.. and anyone is free to tell me how that is wrong...  and that leads to the conclusion.. a logical one.. that this election is not as close as the polls make it seem.


I seem to recall that you were pretty certain that Liz Warren was a shoo-in to be the Democratic candidate.  Most recent "analysis" I have seen has the Senate being even at 50 - 50.  

never once said she was a shoe-in..  I wanted her to win.. not the same as thinking she would.. much less a shoe-in. I did say she was a shoo in to beat Trump.. but winning the nomination was going to be the hard part for her.

and most analysis I am reading now is a likely 5-7 seat gain for the Democrats..  pretty much every analysist has given the Dem's a 70% and north of chance of taking the Senate.

they've got AZ, CO, ME.. and only need one after that and they are leading and have been in quite a few others.. then there are the toss ups.. of which there are several.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Easy Money Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 hours 39 minutes ago at 15:54
Originally posted by rushfan4 rushfan4 wrote:

No offense micky, but your prediction skills leave a lot to be desired.  Ouch  I enjoy reading your commentary and opinions as you are kind of the mirror image of DJT and we agree on many items, but I will be waiting for the fat lady to sing before I call this election.  I just read an article today that the only poll to report that Trump was winning Wisconsin and Michigan in 2016 has reported that Trump leads in Michigan and is even in Wisconsin.  All the other polls don't even have it all that close in favor of Biden.  This makes me nervous.
You are talking about The Trafalgar Group, they try to make up for people reluctant to talk to poll takers by asking the person they are talking to who their neighbors are voting for. Interesting approach. They were one of the few to pick trump last time, and they are picking him again.

I like reading a cross section of research polls, you can see them all at RCP, but I don't count on them to tell me who is going to win or lose. If you read polls often enough you can see which way candidates are trending, positive or negative, and how their recent deeds are playing out. That's the interesting part to me.

Edited by Easy Money - 15 hours 59 minutes ago at 16:34
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote lazland Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 hours 17 minutes ago at 16:16
From my perspective here in dear old Blighty, I stopped taking notice of polls long ago. It beats me why respectable newspapers bother wasting their money on them.

I think that Biden will win. I would not, however, be in the least bit surprised if Trump won. Either way, my feeling is that is might be a damned sight closer than many observers think.

I saw today that US GDP shot up by 30+%. Good news for the incumbent.

But, critically for me, I don’t think that the wounds in your society will be healed by either of these candidates. This is not an election governed by any political principles. It is a cultural and societal election, and I see neither of these candidates able to heal those divisions. Actually, I am beginning to think that nobody is capable of doing so.

Western democracies are at a crucible the world over. It strikes me that the systems we have had in place for some time now, certainly since the early 20th century, are no longer fit for purpose in 21sr century society.

I might also add that the “success” deeply objectionable totalitarian societies have had in combatting the present lurgy, and the car crashes we are witnessing, bode ill for the future.

What we all need is a group of visionaries to transform democracy and capitalism to work for the common people. I see no sign of this anywhere in the west, not just America.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote npjnpj Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 hours 54 minutes ago at 16:39
I don't think you can see democracy and capitalism as standing side by side any more. What I see is democracy having been devoured by capitalism almost entirely.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote micky Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 hours 39 minutes ago at 16:54
Originally posted by lazland lazland wrote:

From my perspective here in dear old Blighty, I stopped taking notice of polls long ago. It beats me why respectable newspapers bother wasting their money on them.



as I did after 2016.. replaced by looking at  hard numbers.. trends.. results

the best number.. national...Democrat +10..  that is what happened when both Democrats and Republicans both turn out in historic numbers

but 2020 is not 2018...  a few things have happened in this country I might have heard about..

I would not be the least bit surprised to see the final Talley approach Biden +15. As split ticket voting is finally rearing...finally putting its 2nd foot in the grave.. Republicans have long ditched it.. Democrats finally are. Straight ticket voting and the commonality of it .. is one of the biggest changes in this country politically in the last decade.

no one thinks sharing power.. or split control works.. see Mitch McConnell. It only leads to obstruction. .nothing getting done.

this is looking like it could be a down ballot catastrophe for the Republicans.. as we have been saying (since 2018 haha) it could be.

it does look like 2020 will be like 2018 which Democrats overwelms the Republican base but even more thoroughly than it did in 2018 and why what was wave in 2018 could be tsunami in 2020.. and that mere 5-7 Senate seat flip could be a bit low but even more importantly.. at the state and local level as it is census and redistricting time...


Edited by micky - 15 hours 37 minutes ago at 16:56
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JD Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 hours 33 minutes ago at 17:00
^^I wouldn't say 'devoured'...more like tied it to a chair with a ball gag in its mouth.


Edited by JD - 15 hours 31 minutes ago at 17:02
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kenethlevine Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 hours 28 minutes ago at 18:05
it amazes me that the Dems can ever take the Senate, given how skewed that is towards the Republicans given that each state gets 2 senators and probably 60% of the states are red or reddish.  The same sort of bias allows the Republican president to win 310-230 while losing the popular vote by a few million.  if the shoe was on the other foot you can be sure they would be redistricting the whole map with the stacked Supreme Court's blessing.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote micky Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 hours 60 minutes ago at 18:33
you would think so wouldn't you Ken LOL That is a LOT of red on a national map. i get kicks out of the Virginia map.. so much red.. so few Republicans elected haha.

and yes.. they tried to do something similar before they got voted out of office in 2018/19..  adjust the states winner take all method of allocating the Electoral votes to the way Nebraska and Maine do it..  but obviously that never left the ground.  

as far as the Senate...remember though.. it was only a few short years ago the Democrats held a fillabuster proof 60 seat super-majority.

I'm sure you've heard of the 12th ammendment.. who hasn't ...

the Republicans have the edge in 25.. half the states. Democrats in 23.. two or tied..

pretty even.. but with red states moving blue.. Arizona is close to gone... Texas likely makes the first move next month.. and probably along with Georgia 

and that count is likely to shift positive Democrat next week.. as they may pick up another 10-20 House seats..  and likely with a signicant gain in the Senate

with 2022 coming up.. which is even worse electoral math for Republican senators than 2020 is proving to be. That Republican from Pennsylvania already saw the handwriting on the wall and decided to not seek reelection in 2022. He knows.. he was going down.

there are no blue states moving red.. any more than Montana or Indiana moved blue after a one off electoral bucking..
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rogerthat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 hours 18 minutes ago at 21:15
Originally posted by npjnpj npjnpj wrote:

Why does it seem taken for granted that all these votes are mainly democrat?
Surely, Trump supporters are equally fired up.

Texas is a bit of a wildcard here because it does not report party affiliation of the early votes unlike several other states (including Florida, where registered Democrats lead registered Republicans). 

I think that's why you are not hearing much from either side on this.  For the Republicans, a loss in Texas is too scary to contemplate.  It's the only BIG state that's been reliably Red. For the Dems, they don't want to get too cocky.  Trump doesn't have the resources to spend on Texas and is trying to fight Biden in the Upper Midwest.  Biden too is focusing on what is flippable as per conventional wisdom.  

HOWEVER, early voting in Texas has already exceeded the total vote in 2016.  Just think about that stat.  There is something afoot there.  Are there conservatives who have decided to vote this time because they don't want to lose the state to Biden?  Sure, some of them spoke to Guardian in their Anywhere But Washington episode.  But much of the increase in voting has come from metropolitan centers which in Texas too (like many other states) trend Democratic.  So THAT does not augur well for Trump.  If Texas flips, it's over for him.  And Texas counts ballots as they are received, whether mail in or person, so Texas will likely be announced on election day.  It would put paid to all of Trump's grand plans to use the newly minted conservative judge to steal the election in close states that aren't done counting. 

It's not a guarantee but the Texas data together with single digit leads for Trump in normally solid red states like Kansas, Alaska or Montana suggests a general weakening of support for Trump across the board. It would still not be enough (to ensure a Trump loss) if he manages to hold on to PA and also win Ohio and Florida...that is, if he wins Texas.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SteveG Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 39 minutes ago at 07:54
Three more shopping days 'til X-mas (Nov. 3.) Will Santa get the throne or will the Grinch steal Christmas?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote The Dark Elf Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 35 minutes ago at 07:58
Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Three more shopping days 'til X-mas (Nov. 3.) Will Santa get the throne or will the Grinch steal Christmas?


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