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Direct Link To This Post Topic: Russia/Ukraine tensions - Any concern?
    Posted: December 07 2021 at 02:35
The British news media has a long tradition of dubious prioritisation of stories. Clearly there's been a lot going on over the last couple of years, with covid and increasing fears over the urgency of the climate crisis, but...

Along with growing tensions with China over Taiwan (again, seldom mentioned by the BBC) there is clearly something potentially very worrying taking shape on the Russia/Ukraine border. This is seldom mentioned by the BBC on it's prime time news, but finally it has surfaced on their news homepage, instead of buried as an afterthought on one of their international pages.

Russia has a history of brinkmanship and pressuring the west, when it's seen to have 'weak' or incompetent leadership. With over 100K troops poised on the other side of the Ukraine border, and accusations by Kiev of a planned coup to topple the government and install a pro Moscow regime, where do you think this will lead?

Storm in a tea cup, or BANG!!

Putin Biden to Zoom
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2021 at 04:10
I think storm in a tea cup.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2021 at 04:42
Originally posted by NotAProghead NotAProghead wrote:

I think <span style=": rgb248, 248, 252;">storm in a tea cup.</span>


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2021 at 05:09
I wish the EU (and NATO) would stop meddling in there, and I have even less trust in the Ukrainian regime than I do in Moscow.

Would most of these ex-Soviet nations treat their respective Russian minorities (even the majority in Latvia) with respect and not think of them as second or third class citizens, Russia wouldn't be in there meddling in.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2021 at 05:42
It appears that one of Moscow's biggest concerns is Ukraine joining NATO, as per Latvia and Lithuania. There is some legitimacy to his concerns, as NATO is encroaching ever close to the Russian border.

That said, it's hard to say which side is actually the most paranoid. What exactly does Putin think NATO is going to do? Invade Russia? I don't think so.

I hope this is another example of Putin playing to the gallery at home, and testing the west, although if Georgia and Crimea show us anything, it's that he's not all mouth and no trousers (as we say in England)

Then there's the joint military exercises Russia and China held earlier in the year, and the tension with China and Taiwan. It all seems a bit dicey right now..
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2021 at 05:43
...I agree with the previous posts. Plus...

 I don't think Russia attacks Ukraine unless NATO pours a bunch of troops inside Ukraine. Hopefully, the NeoCon's won't antagonize Russia into a war. 


Edited by omphaloskepsis - December 07 2021 at 05:45
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2021 at 06:12
Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:

...I agree with the previous posts. Plus...

 I don't think Russia attacks Ukraine unless NATO pours a bunch of troops inside Ukraine. Hopefully, the NeoCon's won't antagonize Russia into a war. 




Indeed, and the Ukrainian defence minister has said he didn't want NATO troops fighting on Ukrainian soil, but wanted arms and logistical support. So long as Russia doesn't declare that a 'red line' there may not be conflict
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2021 at 08:18
Hi,

I think that some folks are playing with fire, and all I can hope for is that this does not turn into another Vietnam! It has the makings of it already. 

But all in all, this kind of thing has been going on for thousands of years with many "conquerors" and we still think they are movies and were not real people! It couldn't happen today with real people, right?
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2021 at 08:47
Originally posted by Sean Trane Sean Trane wrote:

I wish the EU (and NATO) would stop meddling in there, and I have even less trust in the Ukrainian regime than I do in Moscow.

Would most of these ex-Soviet nations treat their respective Russian minorities (even the majority in Latvia) with respect and not think of them as second or third class citizens, Russia wouldn't be in there meddling in.



Hi, Hugues,

I'm a bit shocked by your post - are you still reading those Kremlin official papers till now?!
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2021 at 08:58
Originally posted by moshkito moshkito wrote:

Hi,

I think that some folks are playing with fire, and all I can hope for is that this does not turn into another Vietnam! It has the makings of it already. 

But all in all, this kind of thing has been going on for thousands of years with many "conquerors" and we still think they are movies and were not real people! It couldn't happen today with real people, right?


Yeah, that's what many people thought before WW1 & WWII..

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2021 at 09:10
Russia has such a long history of being peace loving pacifists.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2021 at 09:15
I don't think Putin going to start the war intentionally - today's Russia isn't an USSR, he just wants to push lazy and toothless Westerners once again to get a gift - the promise to leave Ukraine in Eurasian orbit, not European

But knowing Eurasians impulsivity and partial irrationality, the local conflict can start just by chance, as it already happened before

Edited by snobb - December 07 2021 at 09:16
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2021 at 09:18
Originally posted by Blacksword Blacksword wrote:

Originally posted by moshkito moshkito wrote:

Hi,

I think that some folks are playing with fire, and all I can hope for is that this does not turn into another Vietnam! It has the makings of it already. 

But all in all, this kind of thing has been going on for thousands of years with many "conquerors" and we still think they are movies and were not real people! It couldn't happen today with real people, right?


Yeah, that's what many people thought before WW1 & WWII..


But modernism is said to have ended after the WWII. Most people couldn't predict the 2nd WW after the first. But, it is also said that the immediate aftermath of the first WW caused the 2nd one. I'm not a postmodernism guy, but I think it created an "atmosphere" that hasn't give way to the 3rd World War. Of course, anything can happen still. Modernism would be great in ideal societies, but we seem to be far away from that. Long live postmodernism!!! Till we understand why modernism was great, but we weren't ready for that!
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2021 at 09:28
Originally posted by Shadowyzard Shadowyzard wrote:

Originally posted by Blacksword Blacksword wrote:

Originally posted by moshkito moshkito wrote:

Hi,

I think that some folks are playing with fire, and all I can hope for is that this does not turn into another Vietnam! It has the makings of it already. 

But all in all, this kind of thing has been going on for thousands of years with many "conquerors" and we still think they are movies and were not real people! It couldn't happen today with real people, right?


Yeah, that's what many people thought before WW1 & WWII..



<span style=": rgb248, 248, 252;">But modernism is said to have ended after the WWII. Most people couldn't predict the 2nd WW after the first. But, it is also said that the immediate aftermath of the first WW caused the 2nd one. I'm not a postmodernism guy, but I think it created an "atmosphere" that hasn't give way to the 3rd World War. Of course, anything can happen still. Modernism would be great in ideal societies, but we seem to be far away from that. Long live postmodernism!!! Till we understand why modernism was great, but we weren't ready for that!</span>


The nature of the threat changed after WWII, and the stakes got much higher. The MAD doctrine deterred another global conflict, but it doesn't eliminate the threat altogether. The risk of miscalculation - counting on your opponent not cross the line - would be the probable cause of another global conflict IMO, and it's important to note that the treaties put in place to reduce nuclear arsenals have been ditched by Washington & Moscow. There is the school of thought on both sides, that in light of new developments in missile technology, nuclear conflict could be fought, limited, contained and crucially 'won' so basically MAD no longer stands (or so some believe) This also increases the risk.

In any case, that's getting too far ahead. Neither side actually want that, and the more immediate threat is to the people of Ukraine.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2021 at 09:43
^ Yes, but also the minorities and the fringes of the societies were understood better with postmodernism. Many problems are yet to be solved, but we at least are aware of those unlike in modernism. I don't think that we're "progressing" as humanity in the literal sense. But, after postmodernism, we might do that.

Edited by Shadowyzard - December 07 2021 at 09:44
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2021 at 11:05
We will see what happens. I won't be surprised if Putin launches a military incursion. That seems to be in the Russian blood.Confused
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2021 at 11:12
Originally posted by King of Loss King of Loss wrote:

That seems to be in the Russian blood.Confused

This has nothing to do with blood. It has happened all over the world, with Western Europe and the USA also often happily involved.
By the way, I think Putin is a good strategist. Before he does something like this, he'll do his best to make sure that he can get away with it (not that this is particularly reassuring... Ermm).


Edited by Lewian - December 07 2021 at 11:14
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2021 at 11:50
Originally posted by Blacksword Blacksword wrote:

It appears that one of Moscow's biggest concerns is Ukraine joining NATO, as per Latvia and Lithuania. There is some legitimacy to his concerns, as NATO is encroaching ever close to the Russian border.


It should be up to the people of those countries to decide whether those countries join NATO or not; Russia isn't deserving of a say in the matter. To quote Lithuania's ambassador to the UK: "Our countries were not forced or lured into Nato as part of an American global power grab. We were pounding on the door of the alliance, demanding to be let in, because we feared that Russia might one day become what it is now: a threat."

Originally posted by Sean Trane Sean Trane wrote:

I wish the EU (and NATO) would stop meddling in there, and I have even less trust in the Ukrainian regime than I do in Moscow.

Would most of these ex-Soviet nations treat their respective Russian minorities (even the majority in Latvia) with respect and not think of them as second or third class citizens, Russia wouldn't be in there meddling in.


Only about a quarter of Latvia's citizens are ethnically Russian, actually. I don't doubt that there's a lot of animosity and ill treatment of Russian minorities in former Soviet states, but you'll have a hard time convincing me that it's bad enough to warrant a military intervention of the kind Russia has already been engaged in in Ukraine since 2014. You could apply the same logic to claim that Nazi Germany was in the right to annex Sudetenland in 1938.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2021 at 13:01
Originally posted by snobb snobb wrote:

Originally posted by Sean Trane Sean Trane wrote:

I wish the EU (and NATO) would stop meddling in there, and I have even less trust in the Ukrainian regime than I do in Moscow.

Would most of these ex-Soviet nations treat their respective Russian minorities (even the majority in Latvia) with respect and not think of them as second or third class citizens, Russia wouldn't be in there meddling in.



Hi, Hugues,

I'm a bit shocked by your post - are you still reading those Kremlin official papers till now?!


Yeah, I'd like to ask the same question! LOL

Originally posted by snobb snobb wrote:

I don't think Putin going to start the war intentionally - today's Russia isn't an USSR, he just wants to push lazy and toothless Westerners once again to get a gift - the promise to leave Ukraine in Eurasian orbit, not European

But knowing Eurasians impulsivity and partial irrationality, the local conflict can start just by chance, as it already happened before


I fully agree!


BTW, long time no see, Slava! Hug
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2021 at 13:26
Originally posted by Mirakaze Mirakaze wrote:



Originally posted by Sean Trane Sean Trane wrote:

I wish the EU (and NATO) would stop meddling in there, and I have even less trust in the Ukrainian regime than I do in Moscow.

Would most of these ex-Soviet nations treat their respective Russian minorities (even the majority in Latvia) with respect and not think of them as second or third class citizens, Russia wouldn't be in there meddling in.


Only about a quarter of Latvia's citizens are ethnically Russian, actually. I don't doubt that there's a lot of animosity and ill treatment of Russian minorities in former Soviet states, but you'll have a hard time convincing me that it's bad enough to warrant a military intervention of the kind Russia has already been engaged in in Ukraine since 2014. You could apply the same logic to claim that Nazi Germany was in the right to annex Sudetenland in 1938.

Furthermore, the existience of strong Russian minorities is largely the result of deportation and re-settlement of the original population and mass immigration of Russians during the Soviet rule. For example parents of a Lithuanian friend of mine were deported to Siberia and only much later allowed... to Latvia but not to their native Lithuania, as the Russians tried to weaken the native populations. Obviously that's not a justification for treating the Russian minority badly today, however the Russians can hardly derive a right to intervene from this.


Edited by Lewian - December 07 2021 at 13:28
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