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It's been posted in a number of prog bands' Facebook pages e.g. The Tangent.

Wilson has said repeatedly that he has no interest in reuniting Porcupine Tree. 

I don't know who first came across this or how, but it doesn't necessarily prove that they're making a comeback, it could be licensing or royalty related.

Apart from in two interviews earlier this year where he said otherwise....

It has seemed for a couple of months now, that things are being geared up for a Porcupine Tree reunion. Whether that is only live, or a new album, is all conjecture - but it is definitely no longer seems as unlikely as it has previously.

I am quite ambivalent about it, and if anything hope this is all rumours which amount to nothing, because I’m honestly not sure I want to hear any new Porcupine Tree material. I find where Steven Wilson is going far more interesting, and it seems a little like a step backwards.

Wilson said in an interview that going back to PT would be a step backwards for him. 

So, eventual new music from them would be warmly welcomed by me, as you never know what to expect from SW & Co.

Definitely the signs are all there that a Porcupine Tree reunion is now a “when” rather than an “if”.  People change their minds, and while in the past Wilson has dismissed the idea of getting back together with PT, recent interviews have definitely seen him explicitly stating that he would like to play live with Porcupine Tree again, and maybe even record new music with them. And yes, he definitely threw out that chestnut that “a PT reunion would happen when we least expect it”. (That may not be the exact quote, because I can’t be bothered to look for it - but please Google’s if you feel so inclined.)

As my only “concern” about a PT reunion was it being a return to old sounds, the news above that PT would have been making the music that has been released as SW means I am ready for whatever comes....

1) How strong evidence is registering this company that there will be a reunion of the band? Not very strong I'd think.

2) On the other hand, they could call the band Porcupine Three and say it's a new band, not a reunion. Wilson can then say there won't be a reunion as much as he wants, and can even feel he's right. 

3) Liking almost all of PT MUCH more than almost all of Wilson's solo stuff, I'd of course love to see that happening.

An official YT channel for Porcupine Tree has been created, and is being fairly heavily promoted with the suggestion that people subscribe to the channel, in order to not miss what will be some really special updates.

As above, the website has been updated, and again this has been quite heavily promoted.

In at least two interviews (possibly more, but it’s only been two I’ve personally read) Steven Wilson has gone back on his previous words, and said that he would like to play and record with PT again, and that the band WILL reform (when we least expect it).

Porcupine Three.

I read on one of SW's interviews that he would only be interested in bringing back the band if other members came up with most/all of the songwriting material, otherwise he might as well use his solo label for anything that sounds like PT.

I have noticed that a lot of things are happening with the PT band. In addition to the post above, the band also have a Bandcamp page and have been releasing previously unheard live material from their early 90s days. Initially I thought it was just them making their music more easy to access and milking the popularity of the band. But with everything else that has been said I think there is a high chance for a PT reunion, especially given that SW's solo work is moving further away from Prog these days. Maybe PT will be where he writes his Prog albums from now on, while the Pop/electronic stuff stays in his solo albums?

The last interview I read/heard was exactly that, Steven Wilson had little to no interest in being the main music and lyric writer. Which assumes he wants the other members to contribute the material.........Here's the problem I see with that.

I think SW likes to be in some kind of control with content and if he does not like what say Richard or Gavin come up with he'll end up re-doing it or simply providing all the material like in the past, which he might as well release as a solo album rather than split everything 4-ways.

Gavin is contributing to The Pineapple Thief so he is very capable, I'm not sure about Richard or Colin and those three doing words and music that SW will enjoy playing and singing.

They could make a huge splash by simply touring for a year in 2022 without any new material and it may only be in the US with Covid restrictions lifting all over the country.

If SW only wants to bring back PT when people least expect it, and he sees this thread, he may well cancel it. We may be very unwise speculating here. 

Other than that, I have always loved Japan and Richard Barbieri's work, so if he contributes a lot, fine by me.

I mentioned that earlier, but it’s not just the fact that there is a new PT YouTube channel, so much as how heavily it was promoted, and urging people to subscribe so they don’t miss out on something big (or words to that effect). Now there’s nothing concrete about that, and whenever there is a new YT channel, it’s fairly standard to ask for people to subscribe to it. It’s more the manner of how the PT YT channel has gone about this, which is “interesting”, and adding to the rumour of a PT reunion of some sorts being on the cards.

This^   

Plus, Steven's a family man, now.