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Easy Money 
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 Posted: June 05 2020 at 11:07 |
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^ Looks like Lisa Murkowski is the first one to officially jump ship. Who is next?
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Help the victims of the russian invasion:
http://www.jazzmusicarchives.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=28523&PID=130446&title=various-ways-you-can-help-ukraine#130446
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SteveG
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Posted: June 05 2020 at 11:14 |
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I don't see too many. It's hard to imagine McConnell, Graham et al following her out the door. Romney maybe but he's always been on his own planet.
Edited by SteveG - June 05 2020 at 11:14
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This message was brought to you by a proud supporter of the Deep State.
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SteveG
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Posted: June 05 2020 at 11:16 |
 micky wrote:
^ yeah.. perhaps offering cookies, flowers and pleas to their basic humanity would do that instead
and a squiggly face back at ya  
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The squiggly face was only a ruse. I shipped that pic to all my friends and family.
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This message was brought to you by a proud supporter of the Deep State.
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The Dark Elf
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Posted: June 05 2020 at 11:30 |
SteveG wrote:
I don't see too many. It's hard to imagine McConnell, Graham et al following her out the door. Romney maybe but he's always been on his own planet.
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It would be hard to decouple from the human centipede attached to Trump's sphincter.
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...a vigorous circular motion hitherto unknown to the people of this area, but destined
to take the place of the mud shark in your mythology...
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micky
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Posted: June 05 2020 at 11:48 |
Easy Money wrote:
^ Looks like Lisa Murkowski is the first one to officially jump ship. Who is next? |
I dig what are saying man.. and yeah that was a step.. not voting for him. Woopie..
How many likely did in the first place. Outside of Sessions not many at all of the Senate backed Trump. Outside of idiot Trump supporter.. pretty much everyone saw Trump was unqualified and a f**king narcistist and a potential (or enivatable) disaster to that party. They rode him hard and got the tax cut they wanted for the rich but there never has been love or loyalty to him. It's all been poltical calculus but as I asked before what really can they do to distance themselves from the sinking ship... when I think jumping ship.. in a way that really says something I think Justin Amash and do you see any Senator doing that. Be it out of principal (hahahaha) or to save their cushy little jobs. Perhaps Murkowski . and I would have thought Collins could have but she made her 2020 grave with that Kavenaugh vote and not sure even going I and leaving the GOP caucus would save her from the fury of Maine women at this point.
Edited by micky - June 05 2020 at 11:52
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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micky
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Posted: June 05 2020 at 12:03 |
SteveG wrote:
micky wrote:
^ yeah.. perhaps offering cookies, flowers and pleas to their basic humanity would do that instead
and a squiggly face back at ya
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The squiggly face was only a ruse. I shipped that pic to all my friends and family. |
same here.. as I often say.. either you can laugh or you cry at where this country is at right now.. and for those with a propensity toward.. ahem...black humor.. it was comedic gold.
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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micky
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Posted: June 05 2020 at 12:36 |
here is what I think is a fairly good view based on polling and a bit of educated instinct of where we are at post George Floyd rav up...and the damage Trump did to his reelection chances.. see his approval rate is getting close to sinking below 40%. He is losing core supporters.. libertarians.. religious types of the non bat sh*t crazy flavor.. or some mix of them.
and pre-Convid 19 2nd wave as many go back to work... and cases and death tolls explode as they are already showing signs of doing...
took individual state polls into account when they were to be had and used a 5 point slider which multiple national polls are consistently showing leading to an approximately a 10 point shift from 2016 to 2020..
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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npjnpj
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Joined: December 05 2007
Location: Germany
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Posted: June 05 2020 at 13:03 |
Everyone to his own, I suppose, but I lost my last vestiges of trust in polls at the result of the 2016 US elections, just as I lost any hope for sense in humanity after the British General election in 2019. Polls are absolutely useless except for influencing opinions, not recording them. Yeah, yeah, there are polls you trust, the 'reliable' ones, but give me a break. They're the ones that show you what you want to see. Show me a Fox News poll and explain exactly why yours is more reliable. It's the art of asking the 'right' questions. Polls show you NOTHING!
As for the comments above about Lisa Murkowski: have you not followed her actions? Just like Susan Collins she sees to it that her name gets in the news only to pull back at the very last moment. Again and again. Both of them are masters at pulling this stunt. And because people are so f*cking stupid, it works again and again and again.
Sorry, bad day today.
Edited by npjnpj - June 05 2020 at 13:05
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Easy Money
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Joined: August 11 2007
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Posted: June 05 2020 at 13:13 |
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Re Micky's map. I agree with most of that, although i think Iowa, Texas and Georgia will go trump, and I would call Ohio and North Carolina as 50/50.
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Help the victims of the russian invasion:
http://www.jazzmusicarchives.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=28523&PID=130446&title=various-ways-you-can-help-ukraine#130446
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Atavachron
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Posted: June 05 2020 at 13:15 |
SteveG wrote:
Atavachron wrote:
SteveG wrote:
^ My grandson works in an office in Newark, NJ. He's working form home but said there has been no looting or violence with the protests there. I suppose having a racially mixed police force in that city has helped. Historically, no targeting of blacks have taken place, as far as I know. Now imagine that? |
Sadly Newark has had notorious racial problems and bad police for decades. Maybe that's changed but I doubt it. You would think a mixed police department would make a difference but, as with the election of a black man to the presidency, it's not so simple. |
Oh ye of little faith. In the 60s through the to 80s, Newark did have racial tensions and rioting, especially in the 60s, naturally. But with having black mayors and council members and replacing retiring cops with people of black and brown color, since the 90s, the problems have cleared up. It's only on this level that change can be effected. Not by simply having a black President. What good is a healthy head when the rest of the body is decayed? Many things in this world are complicated, David, but it is that simple.
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That's fine, and I'm glad to hear it. Having black mayors, council members, and cops is definitely an important part of the solution. But frankly I stick to my assertion that in fact it is not simple or immediate by any stretch. We've had people of color advancing nicely in the US for decades (and thank goodness) but it is a looooong hard-fought battle and we still have problems. Add to that the fact that not all non-white people in positions of power are angels.
What we see is a more complex human problem than is assumed. It is a long and frustrating journey that involves much more than just appointed officials of diversity. Plus, ethnicity itself is just a part of cultural, gay, and male/female issues that have little to do with race.
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"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought." -- John F. Kennedy
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micky
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Posted: June 05 2020 at 13:17 |
2016 showed one thing.. not that polls are not to be trusted..
they showed the inability to react quickly to 'November surprises' which was the Comey letter. Tied in with apathy/disguest towards both.. which don't seem to be in the cards in 2020.
there has been a lot of soul searching about what went wrong with polling in 2016. The most important lesson was there was polling out there that said it was much closer than most thought and it was ignored.. that actually measured just how tepid HRC's support was.. and that is exactly what happened. After the Comey letter some.. enough .. decided to say f**k it or cast protest votes far beyond what polling said was out there. besides.. she was going to win anyway so what was the harm. Trump wasn't winning
it hasn't been that way since.. mistakes were made and learned from.. and correctly called the blue wave in 2018.. and it is calling for the same in 2020 at this particular point.
that said it is only June and a lot of things can happen... God might reach down from the heavens and pull a miracle and take the virus and all memories of a bungled response and the 100's of thousand dead...and make it disappear..
or perhaps Trump will sink even further through some otherwise unforeseen outrage or constitutional abuse of his office. The night is forever young with him at the helm haha
polling is a snapshot of where we are at now.. that is all polling is but you have to be a complete Trump moron to think this all looks remotely promising for him or there is really any reason it improves for him. And the polls match the reality of it...
Edited by micky - June 05 2020 at 13:21
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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micky
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Posted: June 05 2020 at 13:40 |
Easy Money wrote:
Re Micky's map. I agree with most of that, although i think Iowa, Texas and Georgia will go trump, and I would call Ohio and North Carolina as 50/50. |
all light blue at least  Very close but I think all go blue. In order of likelihood IMO
Iowa - 2016 was a one off... more about being anti HRC than pro Trump. Look at 2018.. still a blue state. Though light colored and educated Republicans, and there are a lot there, are the ones turning hardest on him.
Georgia - Black VP choice...coupled with the flipping of Atlanta's suburbs... if he does the smart move I think he narrowly wins it. People forget how relatively close it was in 2016.. a lot has changed there in 4 years.
Texas - again.. HRC (yes the extremely unlikeable and uninspiring one) closed Obama's gap in that state from 2012 to 2016 by 50%. It is turning blue quicker than many think. those 100's of thousand of young and liberal voters a year moving there. and add in anti-Trump republicans I think it flips 4 years earlier than I thought it would.
North Carolina - See 2008.. motivated black turnout not only flips Georgia but flips N.C. This is Biden's VP choice to win or lose.
Ohio. - the least likely IMO for I don't think Trump was the only one was shocked by the polling. I think it is very much a sign of how Trump's core support is slipping.. but still think Trump could win it.. but it isn't what the polls are saying now and that again.. is a bad f**king sign for him and indicative of how badly he is slipping.
Edited by micky - June 05 2020 at 13:41
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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lazland
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Joined: October 28 2008
Location: Wales
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Posted: June 05 2020 at 15:11 |
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Trouble is, Micky, you thought Hilary would piss the last election. Whilst Trumpalot should struggle, I still think it is pretty close. Don’t underestimate the strength of his voter base, and, yes, I know that I am only looking in from the outside.
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Enhance your life. Get down to www.lazland.org
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micky
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Posted: June 05 2020 at 15:20 |
oh no doubt.. if I was perfect I wouldn't be here for sure.. but as we all were hopefully taught by our dear parents.
we make mistakes.. but you can learn from them.. I would consider myself a much more educated political observer than I was years ago. The last several election cycles have shown that Trump has a low ceiling and a high floor. Roughly 40% of America
If the other 60% are actually motivated to vote he and his party get crushed.. and they have in the cycles since his election. Nothing has changed since then.. other than.. well.. his own support is beginning to leave him..
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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The Dark Elf
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Posted: June 05 2020 at 15:57 |
So the damnable, execrable White House lied. Yet Again. Tear gas was used to disperse a peaceful crowd of protesters just so Trump could have his photo op at a church he's never been in, with a bible he has never read (and held upside down). The rector of St. John's, Reverend Gini Gerbasi, and several aides were also gassed as they tried to protect the protesters who fled to the church grounds.Liars and criminals, the whole damned administration.
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...a vigorous circular motion hitherto unknown to the people of this area, but destined
to take the place of the mud shark in your mythology...
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Snicolette
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Posted: June 05 2020 at 16:12 |
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What exactly was 45 saying here (from CNN, quotes from today's press conference, and one more moment of humour)? Is he saying he thinks Melania is a horse? "People are -- people are driving. I may have to buy one of those things; drive around town. Maybe I'll drive back to New York with our first lady in a trailer."
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"Into every rain, a little life must fall." ~Tom Rapp
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micky
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Posted: June 05 2020 at 17:02 |
a horse...hahah..though truth be told.. not the worst thing she has been called
but as we know paybacks to 'the ego' can be hell in Trump world! Remember the hand slap
men and their insecurities.. whimps...to think back to when my ex decked me... during our wedding ceremony.. caught on video... we laughed about that for years
Edited by micky - June 05 2020 at 17:11
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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micky
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Posted: June 05 2020 at 17:15 |
The Dark Elf wrote:
So the damnable, execrable White House lied. Yet Again. Tear gas was used to disperse a peaceful crowd of protesters just so Trump could have his photo op at a church he's never been in, with a bible he has never read (and held upside down). The rector of St. John's, Reverend Gini Gerbasi, and several aides were also gassed as they tried to protect the protesters who fled to the church grounds.Liars and criminals, the whole damned administration.
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that really has been the amazing thing Greg... this.. that..
forgotten in a week... replaced by the next outrage or un-presidential act..
I swear it is a master plan of his... pile on it so thick and heavy everyone just becomes numb to it.
Yet can we imagine any ONE of these weekly occurances happening under past Presidents.. he even makes Nixon look good in comparison haha
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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Atavachron
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Points: 65991
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Posted: June 05 2020 at 17:17 |
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^ Nixon looks like a freakin' statesman. Even Bush Jr. looks good in comparison. Seriously.
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"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought." -- John F. Kennedy
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micky
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Posted: June 05 2020 at 17:22 |
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hahahah.. I know man.. I know.. seriously..
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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