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M27Barney 
Forum Senior Member
Joined: November 09 2006
Location: Swinton M27
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Points: 3136
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 Posted: June 08 2020 at 06:59 |
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I certainly wouldn't want to live in a country where the number of assault weapons is three times the population....and where a t**t like trump is the POTUS....the lunatics have taken over the asylum...
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HackettFan
Forum Senior Member
Joined: June 20 2012
Location: Oklahoma
Status: Offline
Points: 7951
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Posted: June 08 2020 at 12:20 |
 micky wrote:
and what of that sizeable block of right wingers.. doomed to 3rd party status.. as they became in California. So many have seen it coming.. even their own post election mortums.. but they have painted themselves so far to the right.. that to move center... to move to the left .well. those capable of it.. already have in 2018 or are now doing so.
they were on the losing side of the culture war.. and soon to be consigned to the dustbin of history for shear lack of number or appeal in a changing America. A rump regional party centered on teh deep south and upper midwest.. and fatal condition in a 2 party system. All one really has to is open their eye to see this happening and an eventual split of the Democratic Party reflecting the very political realignment we are talking of in which the Republican Party dies and is replaced by a centrist party to balance the very strong and growing yearly left leaning sentiments in this country..
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This. I can't wait. Once the Republican Party withers, Liberals will be free to part company or iron out their grievances with the Dems.
Edited by HackettFan - June 08 2020 at 12:24
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A curse upon the heads of those who seek their fortunes in a lie. The truth is always waiting when there's nothing left to try. - Colin Henson, Jade Warrior (Now)
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micky
Special Collaborator
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Joined: October 02 2005
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Points: 46843
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Posted: June 08 2020 at 13:31 |
wish I could say that was my notion... some wag earlier brought up 2016 and being wrong.. and who wasn't. I think that has been the biggest difference in the way I approach politics. Less what I think b. and more reading deeper to see what 'they' think. The professionals... and they all see this coming.. hell Governor Arnie himself called it more than a decade ago... unless they expand their appeal beyond the Fundies, bigots, and white nativists.. it was going to die. All those years later. a noted 2012 election post mortum.. it isn't ignored what he said as a complete inability to change for they would have to disown . .the very people electing them to office.
In the case of 2016.. and yes beyond.. it is hard to change and put up sensible candidates who might have a broad appeal like Kasich.. when teh voters themselves nominate morons that .. well.. reflect themselves... and as has been noted numerou times.. even after Trump is gone.. those that supported him will still be there..and will be the primary selector of the next candidate.. so much for broadening the appeal .. so much for saving the party.
As I said some time back.. 2032.. that is when I think that Party dies. It will be the Californication of Texas that does it ahahha. It took Virginia for example roughly 10 years to go from voting blue at the top.. to going all the way down.. state and local office including most of the house seats. When that happens in Texas and it is going to.. that is when I think the party crashes and burns.
As far as the Democrats.. honestly.. the surge of the left was really unforeseen until very recently.. I haven't read of anyone who has any real idea how that will play out.. and who eventually wins out. I form my own opinion of that based on the other party.. it also went through it's 'civil war' earlier last decade and the far right not only beat down. .but in the end drove away the moderate center of the Republican Party which had the establishment and the money.
as Trump was prime example of in 2016.. big money and establishment support lose to passion and numbers. Add in the coming young wave into the party which .. through these Trump years.. has been driven far more to the left than previous young generations coming into the electoral mix. I think the Progressive win that and do drive out the centrists.. and into their own party.. which will replace the Republicans in our 2 party system.
Edited by micky - June 08 2020 at 13:35
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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Easy Money
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator / Retired Admin
Joined: August 11 2007
Location: Memphis
Status: Offline
Points: 10751
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Posted: June 08 2020 at 14:41 |
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Reporting from a conservative part of the country here in a well to do suburb outside Memphis.
We just had three very successful BLM get togethers. If you had told me just two months ago that this area was going to have BLM events, I would not have believed you. Memphis, yes of course, but the suburbs, I am surprised and very happy with the progress.
Sympathy for Floyd is high in the conservative suburbs, especially among women and young people. trump is committing political suicide in not recognizing this.
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Help the victims of the russian invasion:
http://www.jazzmusicarchives.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=28523&PID=130446&title=various-ways-you-can-help-ukraine#130446
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micky
Special Collaborator
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Joined: October 02 2005
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Points: 46843
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Posted: June 08 2020 at 14:49 |
and hot off the internet presses...
this is exactly what I was referring to a couple of pages ago regarding not the error of polling in 2016 but missing the best predicative type of poll and one that most everyone (other than that dude at 538) had overlooked in 2016.
General Partisan lean..it was dead even in 2016.. showing actually just how close it was regardless of what the x v. y polls were saying.
People did take notice of this in 2018.. it showed a significant edge to the Democrats and it nailed the blue wave
and apparently if one goes back.. it is remarkably predictive..
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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kenethlevine
Special Collaborator
Prog-Folk Team
Joined: December 06 2006
Location: New England
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Points: 9219
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Posted: June 08 2020 at 15:15 |
Easy Money wrote:
Reporting from a conservative part of the country here in a well to do suburb outside Memphis.
We just had three very successful BLM get togethers. If you had told me just two months ago that this area was going to have BLM events, I would not have believed you. Memphis, yes of course, but the suburbs, I am surprised and very happy with the progress.
Sympathy for Floyd is high in the conservative suburbs, especially among women and young people. trump is committing political suicide in not recognizing this. |
Edited by kenethlevine - June 08 2020 at 15:16
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micky
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Posted: June 08 2020 at 15:34 |
Easy Money wrote:
Reporting from a conservative part of the country here in a well to do suburb outside Memphis.
We just had three very successful BLM get togethers. If you had told me just two months ago that this area was going to have BLM events, I would not have believed you. Memphis, yes of course, but the suburbs, I am surprised and very happy with the progress.
Sympathy for Floyd is high in the conservative suburbs, especially among women and young people. trump is committing political suicide in not recognizing this. |
slipped that in on me...
and yes... that more than anything John is eyesight to the blind of us having reached that critical mass and how different things are now..
and yes.. he did commit political suicide with this..and this will stick onto the otherwise Teflon Prez. Perhaps a uptick might have blunted the bungled pandemic response... but there is nothing he can really do now to spin this one. Much less backtrack and do the right thing . .even if he any ability to do just that..
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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micky
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Points: 46843
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Posted: June 08 2020 at 15:50 |
two big takeaways from the CNN piece
1) one of the learning blocks post 2016 was actually how few mainstream political types really know their business.One reason so many of us rely on primary sources or the more professional sites .. not the CNN's of the world.
+/- 5 seats... umm... dude should have known.. because it is common knowledge.. That 1 in 4 republican wins in 2018.. were by 5 points or less. With that kind of lean.. the Republicans will be lucky to lose only 10 to 15 seats. Remember N.C and it's court ordered redistricting thanks to yep.. systematic racism.. ie extreme gerrymandering.. anyhow multiple seats there alone are flipping Democratic.
2) the end of Mitch McConnell.. honestly probably the only man more hated in DC than Trump. The 60 vote threshold in the Senate is getting nuked and him kicked to the curb for any influence.. the mandate being the death of the split control premise.. voters will want to see things done.. and McConnell has burned so many bi-partisan bridges.. it goes.. he will not be allowed to obstruct like he did under Obama again.
and that is why Republicans are really freaking out.. they know Trump is toast.. it is losing the Senate which really freaks them out.
Edited by micky - June 08 2020 at 15:53
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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micky
Special Collaborator
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Joined: October 02 2005
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Posted: June 08 2020 at 16:19 |
and one last tidbet for thought...
I alluded to it a couple of weeks ago.. Justin Amash and him declining to run 3rd party...yet read very little of the actual ramifications of it.. and thinking them over for they can be.. and have... 1992.. and yep.. 2016. They can decide elections
PA Trump won by approx 40k votes... but over 200k votes were cast for 3rd party... in 2012 there were... approx 70k.. in 2008 there were..approx 62k so perhaps many are turning to 3rd Party.. so let's see how many were cast in 2018... ahh huh. around 79k. So what happened to them.. we'll come back to that. Perhaps that was just an aberration.
so what about MI Trump won by approx 17k votes.. but almost 250k votes were cast for a 3rd party.. in 2012 there were... approx 50k... in 2008 there were.. approx 80k
and in 2018 of those 250k who suddenly found God and salvation in a 3rd party... how many voted... uhh huh... approx 83k
so what about Wisconsin Trump won there by approx 23k votes but almost 200k votes were cast for 3rd party.. in 2012 there were... approx 40k.. in 2008 there were.. approx 40k
and what about those 250k 3rd partiers in 2018... how many voted for 3rd Party.. uhh huh..approx 50k
so... where are the 3rd parties this year... has anyone even heard if the Libertarian Party is still alive.The Green Party. Sure they are running and with candidates but who have no oxygen to live on. A big name perhaps could have but Amash dropped out.. and did for one reason and we all know it... he knew if he ran.. it could only help Trump.
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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SteveG
Forum Senior Member
Joined: April 11 2014
Location: Kyiv In Spirit
Status: Offline
Points: 20617
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Posted: June 09 2020 at 04:05 |
Atavachron wrote:
SteveG wrote:
Atavachron wrote:
SteveG wrote:
^ My grandson works in an office in Newark, NJ. He's working form home but said there has been no looting or violence with the protests there. I suppose having a racially mixed police force in that city has helped. Historically, no targeting of blacks have taken place, as far as I know. Now imagine that? |
Sadly Newark has had notorious racial problems and bad police for decades. Maybe that's changed but I doubt it. You would think a mixed police department would make a difference but, as with the election of a black man to the presidency, it's not so simple. |
Oh ye of little faith. In the 60s through the to 80s, Newark did have racial tensions and rioting, especially in the 60s, naturally. But with having black mayors and council members and replacing retiring cops with people of black and brown color, since the 90s, the problems have cleared up. It's only on this level that change can be effected. Not by simply having a black President. What good is a healthy head when the rest of the body is decayed? Many things in this world are complicated, David, but it is that simple.
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That's fine, and I'm glad to hear it. Having black mayors, council members, and cops is definitely an important part of the solution. But frankly I stick to my assertion that in fact it is not simple or immediate by any stretch. We've had people of color advancing nicely in the US for decades (and thank goodness) but it is a looooong hard-fought battle and we still have problems. Add to that the fact that not all non-white people in positions of power are angels.
What we see is a more complex human problem than is assumed. It is a long and frustrating journey that involves much more than just appointed officials of diversity. Plus, ethnicity itself is just a part of cultural, gay, and male/female issues that have little to do with race.
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Pardon my late response as I was not up to posting this weekend. I'm not advocating that integrating a police force is the cure for all systemic racism in America. Only that it cures the current problem of black men getting killed by cops. 200 plus years of racism in society will take at least the same amount of time to rectify and probably a lot more. I wish that I had a quick cure for that, but perhaps time itself will be the cure. There's just no easy fix.
Edited by SteveG - June 09 2020 at 04:07
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SteveG
Forum Senior Member
Joined: April 11 2014
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Points: 20617
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Posted: June 09 2020 at 04:25 |
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Biden vs. Trump in a debate. How do all think it would go? I'm asking because that will really determine the outcome, imo. Not that Dems or those on the fence will vote for Trump but that they will not vote at all if Joe stumbles.
Edited by SteveG - June 09 2020 at 04:26
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This message was brought to you by a proud supporter of the Deep State.
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Lewian
Prog Reviewer
Joined: August 09 2015
Location: Italy
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Points: 15724
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Posted: June 09 2020 at 04:27 |
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I usually look up BBC and ANSA (Italy) for news. ANSA today reports about the emergence of a video on which another unarmed Afro American, Maurice Gordon, is shown to have been killed by a policeman, in New Jersey, two days before George Floyd. I used to think BBC is a great source of news, but this is not the first thing that seems big and important to me that I can find on ANSA and not on BBC. Is there anything wrong/fake with this? What do the Americans here think?
Edited by Lewian - June 09 2020 at 04:29
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer
Joined: September 03 2006
Location: .
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Points: 9869
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Posted: June 09 2020 at 04:29 |
SteveG wrote:
Biden vs. Trump in a debate. How do all think it would go? I'm asking because that will really determine the outcome, imo. Not that Dems or those on the fence will vote for Trump but that they will not vote at all if Joe stumbles.
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The lack of sharpness on the part of Joe is worrying in a debate scenario. Trump does have his problems too but he's still not lost his bounce. The advantage Joe has over Hillary or Jeb Bush/Rubio/Cruz for that matter is Trump is an incumbent now and it's Joe who is the challenger. He must guard against attempts by Trump to recast the debate in outsider-insider terms and again turn himself into a challenger. Whenever Trump does that, just say, "Fine, you got your chance, you've had four years and look where that's got to." Trump used to have the economy to point to and he doesn't so he will find THAT charge hard to defend against. But unless you put him on the defensive, he will win by simply reframing the debate on his own terms.
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npjnpj
Forum Senior Member
Joined: December 05 2007
Location: Germany
Status: Offline
Points: 2720
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Posted: June 09 2020 at 05:13 |
Trump is a miracle worker on sniffing out other peoples weaknesses, so when Joe Biden comes bumbling along, piling up his inevitable gaffes, Trump will pounce and make him a laughing stock. Biden will get flustered sooner or later, and the whole thing will become a vicious circle. It'll be a slaughter.
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dougmcauliffe
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Joined: February 23 2019
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Posted: June 09 2020 at 05:39 |
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^ Yep, Trump, the man who stormed out of a press conference cause he didn't like a question is a real tough guy. Totally hasn't been giving Biden infinite ammo for the past 3 months.
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The sun has left the sky...
...Now you can close your eyes
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer
Joined: September 03 2006
Location: .
Status: Offline
Points: 9869
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Posted: June 09 2020 at 05:46 |
dougmcauliffe wrote:
^ Yep, Trump, the man who stormed out of a press conference cause he didn't like a question is a real tough guy. Totally hasn't been giving Biden infinite ammo for the past 3 months. |
But Jim Acosta does a much better job of putting Trump on the spot than Dem politicians. So would Chris Wallace if he was given access. So would Jon Stewart.
Like I said above, Biden should remember he is the challenger and debate like one, put Trump on the spot. And just ignore any poll tested messages that say you need to go easy on Trump so you don't lose the white suburban vote.
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AFlowerKingCrimson
Forum Senior Member
Joined: October 02 2016
Location: Philly burbs
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Points: 19737
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Posted: June 09 2020 at 10:23 |
Well, regardless of all the speculation I'm sure we can agree that it will be a cage match if nothing else. 
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Easy Money
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator / Retired Admin
Joined: August 11 2007
Location: Memphis
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Points: 10751
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Posted: June 09 2020 at 10:28 |
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Help the victims of the russian invasion:
http://www.jazzmusicarchives.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=28523&PID=130446&title=various-ways-you-can-help-ukraine#130446
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SteveG
Forum Senior Member
Joined: April 11 2014
Location: Kyiv In Spirit
Status: Offline
Points: 20617
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Posted: June 09 2020 at 11:13 |
It's hard to mumble when you're asleep.  
Edited by SteveG - June 09 2020 at 11:14
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This message was brought to you by a proud supporter of the Deep State.
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Catcher10
Forum Senior Member
VIP Member
Joined: December 23 2009
Location: Emerald City
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Points: 18085
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Posted: June 09 2020 at 12:06 |
I hope another option steps up.....
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The American Politics Thread
