Reflections on the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

The first thing that is clear is that it's for the Ukrainians to decide, and not for us, whether to accept one or more of Putin's conditions. One may personally hope for the Ukrainians to fight on or to concede, but it's Ukrainian lives on the line in the first place, and of course their country.

That said, here's what I think. I'm really in two minds about this.

For me the key question is really whether Putin would stop if these points, neutral Ukraine, Donbass region and Crimea to Russia, were to be fulfilled. If this were indeed the case, many lives could be saved by such an agreement, and for sure, while the Ukrainians may want to fight on for their own reasons, and they have the right to do it as it's their country, nobody in the West sitting safely at home in my view should say, better these people die because it is just not morally right to cede anything to Putin.

I don't expect Putin to be replaced in the near future, and neither do I expect the Russians to give up winning this war. Russia is, unfortunately, too big and strong to be effectively policed. The best that can be done against Russian aggression is to have the ability to defend oneself, optimally as a powerful alliance, strong enough that Russia wouldn't dare to attack in the first place. I very much hope that NATO is strong enough for this, and of course in Europe we should do all we can to make ourselves more independent of the US, or at least to contribute stronger to our own defense. Unfortunately this has not worked out for Ukraine, however I do think it is right to support Ukraine only as far as we can without becoming direct party of the war. There is in my view certainly a chance that Putin understands he cannot go further, but he has already gone so far that he probably cannot accept defeat there, meaning that he may be up for world war with NATO over Ukraine (as conceding there would kill all he stands for, inconceivable for him to allow at pretty much any price), but not beyond. The bitter pill to swallow obviously would be that he may get what he wanted (maybe less but still enough for him to celebrate it as a victory), and we will feel bad about this. Hard to take really but I can very realistically imagine worse to happen. At the end of the day, let's support the Ukrainians as far as they want to go, but for sure let's not try to push them further. And also, with all due respect, I wouldn't go to world war for them, as this would involve many other human beings in many places who haven't decided on their own that they want to be part of it. Too high a price to pay for NATO pride!

The risk is of course that Putin indeed may try his luck elsewhere if he is at least to some extent successful in Ukraine. I'm not as sure as Nick that this will be the case. The Ukraine had a special place in Russian communication before this year, Georgia and Kazakhstan can hardly be sold to the Russian people as "really Russian". I don't believe he will directly attack NATO. This in fact (and also any potential Georgian, Moldovan etc. advanture) becomes the less likely the more the Russians suffer in Ukraine, which of course is a very good reason to hope for the Ukrainians to fight on and to do as well as they can, and to help them there.

I don't know. Not sure whether I envy those who think they know what's right. You may look down on me for being so morally weak that I'd think Donbass and Crimea can be conceded to the aggressor to save lives, but here we go. Putin needs to be stopped and the world needs peace. I do have on my radar what happened in 1938 and I know there is no guarantee Putin will stop. I just give a narrowly larger subjective probability for avoiding further atrocities in case Putin's conditions are accepted for once (of course with a properly free and self governed remaining part of the Ukraine), Putin is not quite Hitler and 2022 is not quite 1938, but at the end who am I to know? Up to the Ukrainians to decide for themselves!

   

But there’s no way Putin will stop there, if his demands are met. He may not go further into Ukraine, but there are plenty of other juicy morsels for him: Moldova, Georgia, Kazachstan. Not only that, but it will be further proof that NATO will allow him to do just that - so long as he doesn’t intrude on their borders.

You may well be fine with that, but I am not. And I would rather more countries were drawn into the conflict. I don’t think they should need to be drawn into it, so much as put themselves into it - but clearly that is not going to happen. So I hope one of those shells near the Polish border accidentally goes a little too far. I hope we do head into WWIII - because apart from his death, it’s the only way Putin will be stopped.

Thanks for reminding me of my December 11 post, which is still visible on Progarchives. I'll paste it below.

Dec. 11, 2021