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Topic ClosedMartin Orford August 2009

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debrewguy View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2009 at 21:47
Robbie Fulks
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2009 at 21:47
Jimmie Dale Gilmore
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2009 at 21:56
sorry for the font fun, all cut & paste, eh ...
The Supersuckers,
Corb Lund and the Hurtin' Albertans, The Weakerthans, Hank Williams III,

Luther Wright and the Wrongs (ya gotta hear their remake of the wall), the sadies ,


The Reverend Horton Heat

Th' Legendary Shack Shakers,    


Rufus Wainwright








Rufus Wainwright


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2009 at 22:03

Gorguts, 

Quo Vadis, Buck 65,

Joel Plaskett, 

Constantines

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2009 at 22:05
D.O.A.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2009 at 22:06
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skydiggers
the skydiggers are a great example of a band working to earn their fans' dedication 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2009 at 23:10
Debrewguy? You know you can edit a post, right? Instead of making news posts with just one name in them, I mean.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2009 at 07:00

Claude - everything you say is 100% true and nobody is denying it, but that does not mean anything - it is irrelevant to the question of whether artists are affected as a result of illegal downloading - even all those artists you insist on citing would be better-off if P2P did not exist, just because they have worked in-spite of it does not prove anything. All artists are doing exactly the same thing as those relatively obscure artists you have listed, all are finding ways around the problem because Pandora's Box is open and no one can put the lid back on, but that does not remove or negate the initial issue or make them more successful as a result of it. Once any of your list of artists hit the wider market they will be hit by the same problems of any other artist - at the moment they are cocooned from its effects by their core-fanbase. The bigger the exposure, the less dedicated and passionate (fanatical) the listeners are to the band and its music, the more they will be affected.

While I agree with the reasoning behind your argument - that the music industry must change to make illegal activity completely inconssequential, or make it work to their benefit, because they cannot hold back the tide - I cannot see why it means that any artist who stands-up and says this is wrong should be criticised quite so harshly. These artists are not Luddites throwing spanners in the machinery, (though history has shown that Ned Ludd wasn't actually wrong), nor are they whinging 'woe is me' whiners - they are simply people who have put their heart and soul into creating a work of art that find themselves being ripped-off by other people, and they should be allowed to not like that situation and be allowed to say it.

CDs cannot compete fairly with other entertainment souses when their content can be downloaded for free - P2P and illegal Blogs allow people to purchase more of the other entertainment media because they can get their music for nothing. If you could download free software that could turn your microwave oven into a Wii then sales of Wii's would be affected, so why is it so hard to see that P2P affects CD sales more than competition with other entertainment media?

 
Because no one can correlate the numbers - all of those surveys that came out and said that "P2P does not affect CD sales" were being paraphrased, miss-quoted, or worse still, making unfounded conclusions, take the Norwegian study linked by Teaflax:
Originally posted by 'Trends in downloading and filesharing of music' - <EM>Olle Findahl (2006)</EM> 'Trends in downloading and filesharing of music' - Olle Findahl (2006) wrote:

"What then about the negative effects on music sales? These are more difficult to calculate, as there is no direct relation between a download and a lost sale. However the user studies show that there are down loaders who say that they are not buying as much music as before and even if a majority of down loaders say that they buy the same or more a minority of 10 to 35 percent say that they buy less. So there seems to be group of free riders that supports the second hypothesis. But how strong this negative effect is on music sales is impossible to say."
(my underlining)

...the key word is "direct" it changes the meaning of the sentence completely - without a direct link it is impossible to make a correlation, but is does not mean that an indirect link does not exist or that sales of CDs are not affected by downloading - it only means that they couldn't find an empirical one - and they never will.

If all the downloaders who are spending more on CDs as a result of their illegal activities were converting all of the d/loads to hard-purchases, or at least deleting those files they did not pay for hardcopy of, then I'd see some logic in the argument, but there is no indication of that in any of the reports, or in any of the posts I've read here or on anyother place on the internet. If their digital library has 5,000 titles and they've only paid for 4,000 of them, they have gained and the artists have lost 20% of their sales, there is no other equation (even if they don't like the remaining 1,000 titles and will never play them again - however I guarantee the reality is they do like at least some of those and will play them again).



Edited by Dean - October 03 2009 at 07:07
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2009 at 07:09
Originally posted by Teaflax Teaflax wrote:

Yet, nearly all niche genres have seen a resurgence and greater overall market share since the advent of file sharing. The amount of Prog released in 2008 easily dwarfs the entire output of the genre from 1970-1975, I would wager.


This might be true (I very much doubt it) but the number of units sold is miniscule by comparison. The number downloaded illegally can never be known for sure but there is no doubt in my mind that it has hit sales considerably.

As a (retired) professional mathematician, I'd love to see the data and methodology from the studies you quoted which demonstrate that file sharing has actually increased sales because it goes completely contrary to all my own gut instincts and the evidence of the musical fraternity. Of course these are highly reputable institutions but they are not immune to errors!
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2009 at 09:09
Dean, my main problem as I read music news, bios and such is that a lot of acts that never got the same spotlight as IQ or Pendragon are still making a go of it despite Illegal downloads. And they're not complaining about them.
Both groups were dropped by their labels in the 90s (including my beloved  Marillion), when the industry was experiencing its' peak sales. And the groups I mention all started their recording careers before, or at the very least , just as downloads began. And for the most part, have never "enjoyed" major label support.
These groups have always flown under the radar of mainstream press. They rely on word of mouth and their fans' devotion to make a living. And they've earned that from a small rabid group of people.

Heck, the Skydiggers were dropped by their label also. And in one interview, one of them said it means more , a whole lot more work for them. But that if they want to make a living doing what they love, they work with what they have, not with what they wish they had.




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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2009 at 09:11
And the thing is, after reading about all these indie acts that are working their asses off to maintain their career, Martin & Nick's complaints come off as if they believe they are somehow entitled to success. Martin pointedly says that he won't play small pubs. Yet a lot of the groups I mention are able to play across Canada (of the U.S. for the american groups), based upon pulling in 400 people in most of the places they play. And sometimes they don't get that.
 Touring means you go out and play for people who will pay to see you. They cannot download a gig.Yet, Martin doesn't see a way of making money on the road. Why won't IQ fans spend money to see them ? Or is it that there are not enough real IQ fans to make it profitable ?

Saga, at this year's FMPM, had trouble filling a 400 seat hall. In their home country, in the prog capital of that country. How can that be related to illegal downloads ?
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2009 at 09:32
And like it or not, the casual music listener, upon whom the music industry boom was built on, really did choose to spend their money elsewhere. Yes, illegal downloads are not completely harmless, even if you accept the "promotional value" that many use to defend the practice.

How is that ? The younger generation accounts for a lower percentage of the population. Teens, and young adults tend to be the most ardent purchasers of music, as a group. The older people get, the less they stay as "involved" with music. So you're losing a number of potential buyers there. And yes, the rest have & will make other choices about where to spend their money. It's not a case of saying "I got the new U2 album on limewire, 'cause I wanted to buy this new PSP3". It's more like " that's looks like fun, can you play that guitar hero game on it ? What bout that Aerosmith rock thingy game ?" .

In my circle of close friends that I grew up with, and that I still see frequently, I've seen the usual changes that I describe. I'm the last remaining music freak in the bunch, in that I still buy a good amount of music, and read about it. The other one cut back dramatically about a year or so ago. He'd bought the Guess Who re-issue series, had picked up about half the Stones remasters, and regularly bought other releases. He also downloaded a ton. Then he noticed that he wasn't able to listen to everything he bought, no mind the music he downloaded. And that he could do without the Ipod base, because, well , he's got the CDs & uses his computer to play the CDs. Bought himself a home theater for his renovated basement. Got a laptop. One for his wife. Still buys the occasional album. Doesn't bother downloading anymore.
The rest - one will buy a CD every now & then for his son or daughter - Hannah Montana, All American Rejects, the kids radio stuff. Last one bought for himself - Aerosmith Jaded, and his wife bought AC/DC's Black Ice.
My best friend Claude, hasn't bought anything since ... well I don't know when. He buys the occasional used DVD movie, and some concerts, and the rare new release, if it's on sale. And he had a computer & internet access before the rest of the gang. IN our teens and early twenties, we'd be the ones buying the new Accept, Krokus, AC/DC, Paul SImon, Georgia Satellites cassettes and playing them to people. He isn't even interested in hearing about most new bands.
And the rest of the now middle aged bunch - they were casual music buyers in their youth, and they've cut back from that.

SO it's not just illegal downloads that are hurting sales. It's a number of factors, not all tied to music. And it's mostly competition from other sources. Which is why even if downloads are eliminated, Martin won't be going on the road or living off his music.

And it's not because of his music being good or bad. It's because there are not enough hardcore IQ fans willing to put money on their music instead of spending it elsewhere ...
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2009 at 11:04
Originally posted by debrewguy debrewguy wrote:

And the thing is, after reading about all these indie acts that are working their asses off to maintain their career, Martin & Nick's complaints come off as if they believe they are somehow entitled to success. Martin pointedly says that he won't play small pubs. Yet a lot of the groups I mention are able to play across Canada (of the U.S. for the american groups), based upon pulling in 400 people in most of the places they play. And sometimes they don't get that.
 Touring means you go out and play for people who will pay to see you. They cannot download a gig.Yet, Martin doesn't see a way of making money on the road. Why won't IQ fans spend money to see them ? Or is it that there are not enough real IQ fans to make it profitable ?

Saga, at this year's FMPM, had trouble filling a 400 seat hall. In their home country, in the prog capital of that country. How can that be related to illegal downloads ?
Ermm small pubs in the UK hold about 50 people, including staff and the band, a small club would manage 120, The Underworld in Camden claims to hold 500 people, but if you've ever been there you'll know that is for the whole pub, not just the basement - 500 people in the basement would be a health hazzard. If you've got a 50 seat venue you're looking at taking about £150-£200 on the door - which will net you about £50 profit for the whole band.
 
You really should not criticise Martin unless you've gigged in the UK.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2009 at 11:07
Originally posted by debrewguy debrewguy wrote:

Dean, my main problem as I read music news, bios and such is that a lot of acts that never got the same spotlight as IQ or Pendragon are still making a go of it despite Illegal downloads. And they're not complaining about them.
Both groups were dropped by their labels in the 90s (including my beloved  Marillion), when the industry was experiencing its' peak sales. And the groups I mention all started their recording careers before, or at the very least , just as downloads began. And for the most part, have never "enjoyed" major label support.
These groups have always flown under the radar of mainstream press. They rely on word of mouth and their fans' devotion to make a living. And they've earned that from a small rabid group of people.

Heck, the Skydiggers were dropped by their label also. And in one interview, one of them said it means more , a whole lot more work for them. But that if they want to make a living doing what they love, they work with what they have, not with what they wish they had.
I don't quite know how many times I can say - I know, I believe you, I even agree with you - but this has nothing to do with downloading. Confused
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2009 at 11:16
Originally posted by Dean Dean wrote:

If their digital library has 5,000 titles and they've only paid for 4,000 of them, they have gained and the artists have lost 20% of their sales, there is no other equation


Perhaps true, but not the most important aspect, sometimes. If at the beginning, they had 1 album from an artist (for simplicity's sake), downloaded illegally, liked it, and bought the whole discography (5 albums) minus that first album, I'd say the artist should be happy they got a chance to have a new fan who bought 4 albums. So then, it's rather that they gained 80% of their sales, than lost 20%. It makes no difference unless you look at what would have happened. But in truth who knows how many people do this? Let's face it, the only people who are really keeping CD sales (and to a large extent all music sales) alive at all are people who really care about music, a dying breed if there ever was one. I think it's might be the case that even if we managed to put the cat back in the bag now, most people don't care enough about music to buy it anymore, and the bands now still would have little to gain.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2009 at 11:34
Originally posted by stonebeard stonebeard wrote:

Originally posted by Dean Dean wrote:

If their digital library has 5,000 titles and they've only paid for 4,000 of them, they have gained and the artists have lost 20% of their sales, there is no other equation


Perhaps true, but not the most important aspect, sometimes. If at the beginning, they had 1 album from an artist (for simplicity's sake), downloaded illegally, liked it, and bought the whole discography (5 albums) minus that first album, I'd say the artist should be happy they got a chance to have a new fan who bought 4 albums. So then, it's rather that they gained 80% of their sales, than lost 20%. It makes no difference unless you look at what would have happened. But in truth who knows how many people do this? Let's face it, the only people who are really keeping CD sales (and to a large extent all music sales) alive at all are people who really care about music, a dying breed if there ever was one. I think it's might be the case that even if we managed to put the cat back in the bag now, most people don't care enough about music to buy it anymore, and the bands now still would have little to gain.
Another scenario is that d/loaders download the whole discography then go out an purchase their favourites of those. But as you, I and all those surveys say - who knows how many people do this (or that or anything else).
 
Oh btw - my 20% example was total sales for all artists, not 20% for one - in other words a d/loader could download 5 artists and only buy albums from 4 of them - in that respect 4 artists have lost nothing and 1 has lost everything - I think that is the more likely scenario - but, again, no one knows what happens.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2009 at 12:51
As far as the supposed advantages of illegal downloading as a way for a band to gain new fans, I think it's a wash. Yeah, there are people who download one album, then buy the rest of the discography. And there are some that download an album ,and if they like it, they buy it. And yes, many who download don't buy anything. But many of those wouldn't have bought much in the first place. So I think that in the end, apart from new indie acts, no one gains or loses much by having their music downloaded for free. And once more, I repeat - there are a ton of factors that weigh much more heavily in the collapse of CD sales. Our own passion for music does not drive others to keep buying CDs despite their interests in other products.

Oh, btw, we haven't touched on the skewed sales figures for the 80s & 90s. When CDs were being bought by the truckload to replace LPs. When MTV , radio, and print media could push sales of a music product. When new trends came along every year or two to keep the party going. And before a panoply of electronic gadgets came to take their slices of the pie.


As far as touring the U.K. ... well, you work with what you have. If it's not feasible to play unless you can get 400 paying customers, what happens if you can't get 400 paying customers in the first place ? Martin doesn't seem to want to answer that question. You can't download an actual gig. So why wouldn't IQ fans want to pay to see the band, either in the U.K. or on the continent ? No matter what we think of their music, it still seems like there's simply not enough demand for their live shows to warrant a tour of decent size halls. And again, illegal downloads don't affect that. IF it was the only reason, no one would be touring the U.K. . Hell, I've seen pics of Budgie playing small pubs. Iron Maiden did the same. We have gold and platinum selling actsfrom days of old  here in Canada that tour 500-800 seat bars every year or two. But not all of those old fogeys can. Buck 65 can play 5-6 gigs in the Maritimes and do well. Snow can't even do a show in the Maritimes Rap capital - Halifax.

And financing the tour from CD sales is like saying we make money on selling albums to cover our losses on playing gigs. Bands all over North America are selling small runs of LPs and CDs that barely cover costs and still manage to tour regularly to make their living. Indeed, most of those acts that I mention depend on the gigs to survive. That's where they make money - tickets, merchandise, albums even ...

But I have no use for people who preach "P2P" is great for everyone because blah blah blah. It's more complex than that. It is illegal.

But to hear musicians state that illegal downloads are the only reason they can't make money ... well, let them explain to me why they weren't able to generate enough money for major labels to keep them or want them. Back when the industry was booming. That they went indie is great. That they still didn't manage to make enough, even though they were doing that before Napster just stinks of self serving B.S. .
Like it or not, as great as the music may be (or not), if people aren't spending THEIR money on it just means that you find yourself a new line of work. This is not suffering. This is the reality of the workaday life for most of the rest of us. No entitlement due to being an artist.

P.S. a local prog fan could have booked Three Friends here in Moncton. But he need to get 400 people at $20-30 a head to cover it. After consulting with local music freaks, their consensus was that 300 would be a stretch, assuming a mass promotion campaign in all the local indie shops, media, etc; and that there were no other gigs in the Maritimes. And even with that, it was a big maybe. Gentle Giant at their peak, played in Moncton in 1976 at the coliseum. They drew 680.

Yet, Gojira, a heavy metal band has two local 500 seat venues considering booking them. Bad Religion played the Agrena at the Coliseum last fall. Drew over 2000. A band that's been around for ages, and has never had a platinum album. That has been around longer than most of its' current fans.

P.P.S. so you see, Nick & Martin's anger just seems like sour grapes. Others in far more challenging situations are doing it. And most were never part of a nationally prominent music trend in a compact country media wise (the U.K. vs the U.S.) ...
P.P.P.S. Maybe Martin can play piano for the Old 97's. Can he play honky tonk ?


Here in Canada, the obstacle is distance. 400 miles to the next big town or half decent sized city. Where the only reason why you accept to  play to 150 people is that it's on the way to where ever else you're going. You hopefully break even, and pick up a few fans.
In the States, you do have bigger venues. But they don't book a thousand seat hall for you just because you don't want to play a small 150 seat club. If a promoter can make money off the gig, he'll book you in whatever place you want, as long as you can sell enough tickets. But in the States, their big challenge is the sheer mass of people in the place. To play everywhere takes a long time. So you have local, regional stars that take the occasional trip outside their base. SOmetimes they grow the audience, sometimes not.



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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2009 at 12:56
quick one here - if so many people are illegally downloading IQ albums, why aren't they showing up at IQ gigs ? 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2009 at 13:51
Originally posted by Hercules Hercules wrote:

Originally posted by Teaflax Teaflax wrote:

Yet, nearly all niche genres have seen a resurgence and greater overall market share since the advent of file sharing. The amount of Prog released in 2008 easily dwarfs the entire output of the genre from 1970-1975, I would wager.


This might be true (I very much doubt it) but the number of units sold is miniscule by comparison.


Probably true, but my point is that there's obviously something about the way the playing field has changed that has allowed for a greater number of niche acts to get their product out there. That they're not selling like Genesis or Yes at the time is sort of irrelevant (especially since that really was an historical anomaly of monumental proportions)

Yes, some of that is due to recording costs dropping sharply in the last decade, but it's also about how the free flow of information has allowed people to garner information about music they would otherwise not be aware of. To me, whining about supposed losses due to illegal file sharing is the very definition of looking a gift horse in the mouth; the net has created major opportunities for smaller artists and allowed useful things like ProgArchives to spring up. You can't have your cake and eat it too. The one and the other are inextricably linked.

As Dean said above, casual fans are far less likely to spend money on an artist, so the logical conclusion is that art that touches people more directly, that is less of a mass-market product, should see gains from the growth of online and digital culture. I can't see that as being a bad thing at all.

Read manager Don Bartlett's email here for an example. What's needed to succeed today is to move away from a product model to a service model. And incentive to pay for something physical doesn't hurt. NIN sold out of the the 2,500 copies of the Ultra-Limited Edition of Ghosts I-IV at 300 dollars a pop in less than a week. Even assuming manufacturing costs of 150 bucks per, that's a tidy profit of 375 000 dollars.

Go read Techdirt's series on the economics of abundance and the lack of scarcity. (BTW, the system of having to manually remove the http:// from each link created on this board is insanely dumb and annoying) It makes some very  interesting points and even mentions your gut feeling below.

Quote the idea that this whole concept of the economics of abundance makes no sense because it means the creators of content make no money and they have a right to make money for their creative output.

It makes for a compelling emotional argument, but it is wrong on two major points. First, is the idea that it means creators of content can't make any money. In fact, nothing can be further from the truth.


Originally posted by Hercules Hercules wrote:


As a (retired) professional mathematician, I'd love to see the data and methodology from the studies you quoted which demonstrate that file sharing has actually increased sales because it goes completely contrary to all my own gut instincts and the evidence of the musical fraternity. Of course these are highly reputable institutions but they are not immune to errors!


Google should be your friend in finding out how the conclusions were arrived at. I'm fairly sure Harvard, The Swedish Royal Technical College and the Norwegian School of Management have at least some of the numbers up online. It'd be odd if all of those institutions, plus the Dutch Government and Danish Music Rights Board have made errors that all make them reach similar conclusions (odder still would be if they falsified the results, as Shawn implied before he slunk away).

It becomes increasingy clear to me as I have this dicussion, here and elsewhere, that most of those who think that filesharing is a terrible danger have not really read up much on the issue, but instead just react on gut feelings and anecdotal evidence.

It's a fascinating, often counter-intuitive subject and it is a vitally important one, because it feeds into the arguments made around the many current strong pushes around the world to control and curtail the internet. So it has much larger implications than just whether artists can make a living doing what they love or not. I think people should learn to be wary of carrying water for those who would hobble the internet in the name of creative artists they never seemed to care much about before (and still don't - 20th C Fox still routinely violate subtitler's intellectual property rights, even as they crow about how important such issues are).

A sadly necessary disclaimer: I am deeply opposed to what I call immoral file sharing, i.e. enjoying people's works without making sure that they get some form of remuneration.
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Points: 1225
Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2009 at 13:58
Originally posted by Dean Dean wrote:

 
Oh btw - my 20% example was total sales for all artists, not 20% for one - in other words a d/loader could download 5 artists and only buy albums from 4 of them - in that respect 4 artists have lost nothing and 1 has lost everything - I think that is the more likely scenario - but, again, no one knows what happens.


Wrong. This assumes that the person would have bought from all five artists in the absence of file sharing, something even you can't believe is true.

If that person would only have spent money on the two artists he was fairly certain he would like out of that crop of five, then the gain is 100%. If it turned out he didn't like one of them and sold their records on to a second.hand record shop, the gain would be 400%.

Seriously, the old canard of "one download = one lost sale" has not only been discredited a thousand times over, but doesn't hold up if you think about it for even a second.
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