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Equality 7-2521 View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 25 2013 at 09:56
Originally posted by JJLehto JJLehto wrote:



I can't say that I find the argument convincing at all really. The analysis like most that come to similar results is just incomplete. It really ignores the issue of time preference most obviously which, although the school is riddled with faults, flaws, and wackjobs, is a really important contribution of austrian theory. I'm not sure how the 20s and the present era don't qualify as periods of big government.


 
Hm, well can you explain a bit about it? I know of the concept, but not quite sure how it relates to your point.
 
As for big government, well tough to disagree it's too big today. I feel it's too big in all the wrong places, but in terms of economics...the 1920s and 80s (really 90s) on were deregulation of finance, and I think perhaps that is the issue.
Like I said, it may not be that capitalism itself, as a structure, is the problem, but that finance will grow out of hand if unchecked and lead to many negative results. Gov is part of the problem as they favor that sector, but it could also be argued that being influenced solely by $$$, as finance grows, it will lead to the gov favoring it more by default.
 
Needless to say I don't believe in Austrian theory. After my flirtation, I see some validity to the core of the theory (such as CBs tinkering leading to worse results, and too low rates clearly can fuel bubbles) but there's a whole lot of it I don't see translating to reality. Especially some of their implications
[/QUOTE]

Depending on how my day goes I would like to write something relatively lengthy.

I don't know. The regulation of the banking industry in those respective decades was pretty disastrous so I'm not sure I agree with your point.

Neither do I. But that doesn't invalidate all of the work they've done. Their ultimate downfall is their total refusal to treat economics as a physical science, which is strange because part of their great strength was acknowledging that economics is not a physical science.
"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 25 2013 at 09:39
Originally posted by The T The T wrote:

Capitalism, as implied in its very name, leads to accumulation of capital, which in itself is not bad and it's the tool to, in theory, generate wealth outwards. But accumulation of capital leads to power. And though government doesn't help as it basically colludes with that power, I'm almost certain that, left to its own devices, this accumulated power/capital would have nothing better to do than create other forms and instruments of generating more and more capital but without generating outward wealth, as it has happened in the US for quite a while now.

Maybe we have to go back to bartering.
 
Quite.
If one wants to maintain capitalism, I think some type of regulation and restraint is needed. I know many here think it must be all or nothing, 1800s laissez-faire or communism, but there are shades of every type of system imaginable.
We deff can't try various old ways of thought, a new way is needed. After all, as many Austrians point out the economy is not stagnant, nor is it even a "thing" but the impossible web of the god knows how many actors and related impacts, many of which are not even seen. So seems silly to me to keep harping for an older period of thought.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 25 2013 at 09:27
Capitalism, as implied in its very name, leads to accumulation of capital, which in itself is not bad and it's the tool to, in theory, generate wealth outwards. But accumulation of capital leads to power. And though government doesn't help as it basically colludes with that power, I'm almost certain that, left to its own devices, this accumulated power/capital would have nothing better to do than create other forms and instruments of generating more and more capital but without generating outward wealth, as it has happened in the US for quite a while now.

Maybe we have to go back to bartering.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 25 2013 at 08:16
Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:

Originally posted by JJLehto JJLehto wrote:

Long, and maybe a bit wonky and Keynes-y (sorry) but an inconvenient truth, I'm really starting to believe.

tl;dr if left to its own capitalism is inhernetly unstable...Prone to financialization that hijakcs the economy, leading to increasingly devestating bubbles, which are fueled by us going into debt, leading to the soaring inequality and "real economy" stagnation the world has seen since the 80s.
 
 
I really wonder what the folks here think.
I know the classic "It's not a true market" argument but IDK...maybe that notion really is archaic? Perhaps the economy has simply evolved and the late 1800s don't apply now?
I mean, this happened once before...and the 1920s were not a time of big gov, nor have been the 80s to now. I'm not saying the Fed doesn't make problems worse, but does seem to hold that periods of "leave it alone" leads to this finance driven systemic crash.
 
 


I can't say that I find the argument convincing at all really. The analysis like most that come to similar results is just incomplete. It really ignores the issue of time preference most obviously which, although the school is riddled with faults, flaws, and wackjobs, is a really important contribution of austrian theory. I'm not sure how the 20s and the present era don't qualify as periods of big government.


 
Hm, well can you explain a bit about it? I know of the concept, but not quite sure how it relates to your point.
 
As for big government, well tough to disagree it's too big today. I feel it's too big in all the wrong places, but in terms of economics...the 1920s and 80s (really 90s) on were deregulation of finance, and I think perhaps that is the issue.
Like I said, it may not be that capitalism itself, as a structure, is the problem, but that finance will grow out of hand if unchecked and lead to many negative results. Gov is part of the problem as they favor that sector, but it could also be argued that being influenced solely by $$$, as finance grows, it will lead to the gov favoring it more by default.
 
Needless to say I don't believe in Austrian theory. After my flirtation, I see some validity to the core of the theory (such as CBs tinkering leading to worse results, and too low rates clearly can fuel bubbles) but there's a whole lot of it I don't see translating to reality. Especially some of their implications
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 25 2013 at 07:56
Yeah, gotta love it. The prisons are clogged thanks to drug users, large amount of which are for possession and often minor, that keep getting thrown back in.
Rights of all types of people have been violated, science ignored, tons of money spent...
 
All so drugs can still be readily availableLOL War on Drugs has really gone well eh?
 
 
 
Originally posted by The T The T wrote:

Though charts don't really explain much, this one seems pretty useful and straightforward... and SAD. 

 


 
While I'm not too big on looking at just life expectancy (esp since it depends on so many factors) the real striking part is of course the $$ we spend on healthcare compared to our evil, commie socialized friends. And to think the US uses healthcare less than the OECD average, results are more or less the same, and we have however many unnecessary deaths annually due to lack of available healthcare plus bankruptcies due to medical treatment. Pretty damn sad indeed.
And why I get mad when some of our friends in other countries rage how America is the wealthiest country on Earth. What does it matter when it all is owned by a few percent of the population?? So many can't even access a basic need
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 22 2013 at 16:24
Though charts don't really explain much, this one seems pretty useful and straightforward... and SAD. 

 


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 22 2013 at 14:01
Originally posted by timothy leary timothy leary wrote:

http://www.newyorker.com/arts/critics/atlarge/2012/01/30/120130crat_atlarge_gopnik?currentPage=1

article on prisons and the drug war

Fantastic article. Couldn't agree more with basically everything. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 22 2013 at 13:45
Originally posted by The T The T wrote:

Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:

Originally posted by The T The T wrote:

Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:


Drug war strikes again.

The casualties and victims of the worst policy in US history (the "Drug War") sadly are not limited to these cases of obvious stupidity in the law and in lawmakers. It's not limited to small time traffickers in the US. It's not limited to smugglers caught in the US. it is not limited to the millions of addicts who overdose/get jailed/die thanks to illegality, it is not limited to minorities specially targeted by the war on drugs. This disaster even expands to other countries and specifically Mexico where the idiocy of American legislators have created more of a proper war with thousands of thousands of casualties every year. But hey, why would Mr. Rich Senator in Wyoming care about thousands of deaths in some awful sounding place like Tamaulipas state, Mexico? 

The drug on wars is a drug on people. Nixon, Reagan and everybody who has pushed it and continued it are criminals in their own way. 


Totally agree. And it's not just Mexico. It's the Middle East as well. The Drug War is not a figurative war. It's a foreign policy issue as much as a domestic (okay maybe not as much but allow the hyperbole). It also has serious repercussions and not just a bunch of stoner losers not being able to smoke pot all day instead of getting a job.

Anything that conflates punishment with treatment/prevention doesn't start with good intentions.
Of course. Let's not forget that while cocaine and its relatives come from South America via Mexico, Opium derivatives come from the Middle East. I read somewhere that now that the US is retiring Opium poppy production in Afghanistan is increasing at a high rate. Another triumph of the policy of semi-covert-imperialism of the US. 

One always tends to say "Oh it is a failed policy but it started with good intentions." I wonder if it's true. I wonder if Nixon and Reagan and those who really furthered this "war" ever really thought on solving addiction and reducing drug's impact out of any human or even religious consideration. They wanted control, they wanted more power, they wanted to ensure that the entire industry surrounding illegal drugs is under their control and not somebody else's, they pretended to look moral by depriving people of a choice, they wanted to jail as many black Americans as possible... The war on drugs is racist, fascist, imperialist, and it may qualify as one of the true real conspiracies of our time. 
"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 22 2013 at 12:24
http://www.newyorker.com/arts/critics/atlarge/2012/01/30/120130crat_atlarge_gopnik?currentPage=1

article on prisons and the drug war
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 22 2013 at 11:20
Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:

Originally posted by The T The T wrote:

Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:


Drug war strikes again.

The casualties and victims of the worst policy in US history (the "Drug War") sadly are not limited to these cases of obvious stupidity in the law and in lawmakers. It's not limited to small time traffickers in the US. It's not limited to smugglers caught in the US. it is not limited to the millions of addicts who overdose/get jailed/die thanks to illegality, it is not limited to minorities specially targeted by the war on drugs. This disaster even expands to other countries and specifically Mexico where the idiocy of American legislators have created more of a proper war with thousands of thousands of casualties every year. But hey, why would Mr. Rich Senator in Wyoming care about thousands of deaths in some awful sounding place like Tamaulipas state, Mexico? 

The drug on wars is a drug on people. Nixon, Reagan and everybody who has pushed it and continued it are criminals in their own way. 


Totally agree. And it's not just Mexico. It's the Middle East as well. The Drug War is not a figurative war. It's a foreign policy issue as much as a domestic (okay maybe not as much but allow the hyperbole). It also has serious repercussions and not just a bunch of stoner losers not being able to smoke pot all day instead of getting a job.

Of course. Let's not forget that while cocaine and its relatives come from South America via Mexico, Opium derivatives come from the Middle East. I read somewhere that now that the US is retiring Opium poppy production in Afghanistan is increasing at a high rate. Another triumph of the policy of semi-covert-imperialism of the US. 

One always tends to say "Oh it is a failed policy but it started with good intentions." I wonder if it's true. I wonder if Nixon and Reagan and those who really furthered this "war" ever really thought on solving addiction and reducing drug's impact out of any human or even religious consideration. They wanted control, they wanted more power, they wanted to ensure that the entire industry surrounding illegal drugs is under their control and not somebody else's, they pretended to look moral by depriving people of a choice, they wanted to jail as many black Americans as possible... The war on drugs is racist, fascist, imperialist, and it may qualify as one of the true real conspiracies of our time. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 22 2013 at 10:22
Originally posted by JJLehto JJLehto wrote:

Originally posted by rogerthat rogerthat wrote:

There is a theory that US and West European economies have reached saturation and financial engineering in the 80s onwards was just a way to keep things going.  I don't know how far it is true.  But I have observed that from 2008 onwards, our big firms have started preferring Koreans even for fairly high tech capital equipment.  They only buy from Germans or French when they don't have options from Korea.  Koreans are very aggressive and bid for huge projects at ridiculously low prices and THEN work out how they can make it profitable!

 It seems that the only way out is either a massive productivity jump for US/West Europe or a massive wage cut.  But the export market for your machines is going to get more and more restricted in future at existing prices.
 
Of course the US is mainly a service economy now, and I think many western countries are? Sans Germany and Japan though we've already discussed how you can't export forever, as China is realizing. I've said before while I get the benefits of open trade, it does seem to be a double edged sword that can bring downsides.
 
What exactly is meant by saturation? It does seem reasonable to me that we all have just "maxed out", done all we can, made all we can, and now are a finance driven service economy based on internal consumption. The natural process. I guess only problem with that is, this happened before in the 1920s and the US did bounce back.
 
I read a book by Eric Janszen that did indeed claim we pretty much need a new new deal, maybe not in the FDR sense but that the gov needs to basically jump start things and bring the productivity jump. Hit the reset button and do it again better. IDK how realistic this is but he did claim there's plenty the US can still produce, and there's always stuff to do, so we can find a way to bring a productivity jump. Since wage cut seems unacceptable.

After 1920s, there was a huge technological leap for the world as such.  Ironically, some of it at least may have been aided by the bloody wars. It is that kind of wave that will lift the US to higher rate of growth.  I.e. I am not a big believer in this economic theory or that fuelling the kind of growth that either side - left or right - like to dream about.  That was propelled by a series of fundamental changes to our very way of life.  Yes, to that extent, maybe there is a case for govt intervening by funding research projects that businesses may deem unviable. I am not sure that there is much support for that idea from either side, Democrats or Republicans, but I could be wrong.


Edited by rogerthat - November 22 2013 at 10:23
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 22 2013 at 10:09
Originally posted by The T The T wrote:

Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:


Drug war strikes again.

The casualties and victims of the worst policy in US history (the "Drug War") sadly are not limited to these cases of obvious stupidity in the law and in lawmakers. It's not limited to small time traffickers in the US. It's not limited to smugglers caught in the US. it is not limited to the millions of addicts who overdose/get jailed/die thanks to illegality, it is not limited to minorities specially targeted by the war on drugs. This disaster even expands to other countries and specifically Mexico where the idiocy of American legislators have created more of a proper war with thousands of thousands of casualties every year. But hey, why would Mr. Rich Senator in Wyoming care about thousands of deaths in some awful sounding place like Tamaulipas state, Mexico? 

The drug on wars is a drug on people. Nixon, Reagan and everybody who has pushed it and continued it are criminals in their own way. 


Totally agree. And it's not just Mexico. It's the Middle East as well. The Drug War is not a figurative war. It's a foreign policy issue as much as a domestic (okay maybe not as much but allow the hyperbole). It also has serious repercussions and not just a bunch of stoner losers not being able to smoke pot all day instead of getting a job.
"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 22 2013 at 10:07
Don't mean to post too much but another article I feel impelled to share. Police harassment of a convenience store in Miami. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 22 2013 at 09:58
As a retired timber cutter it does not surprise me that a rotten tree has rotten branches. The best you can hope for is to cut it down to the stump so new growth can emerge.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 22 2013 at 09:54
Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:


Drug war strikes again.

The casualties and victims of the worst policy in US history (the "Drug War") sadly are not limited to these cases of obvious stupidity in the law and in lawmakers. It's not limited to small time traffickers in the US. It's not limited to smugglers caught in the US. it is not limited to the millions of addicts who overdose/get jailed/die thanks to illegality, it is not limited to minorities specially targeted by the war on drugs. This disaster even expands to other countries and specifically Mexico where the idiocy of American legislators have created more of a proper war with thousands of thousands of casualties every year. But hey, why would Mr. Rich Senator in Wyoming care about thousands of deaths in some awful sounding place like Tamaulipas state, Mexico? 

The drug on wars is a drug on people. Nixon, Reagan and everybody who has pushed it and continued it are criminals in their own way. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 22 2013 at 09:34
I agree which is why I mentioned it being unchallenged. I don't think it can hold up. I actually don't even think that as written it's a proper statute. However, in the past these types of things have come down on the side of government where vague notions of intent are usually assumed in its favor. The expansion of eminent domain seizing and civil forfeiture. Juries tend to be easily swayed in these cases too since the public campaign to assume guilt in the case of drug offenses has been very successful. Maybe I'm not as optimistic about it being struck down as I was a few minutes ago actually.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 22 2013 at 09:22
Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:

Evidently Ohio has a law, which has yet to be challenged, that prohibits cars to be equipped with hidden compartments "with the intent of drug trafficking" (however that's to be measured). The first arrest was recently made.

Drug war strikes again.

Horrible.  Though I wonder if he can succeed in court - how can the state prove he had intent to engage in drug trafficking?  Since that phrase is part of the statute, it's a necessary condition for proving guilt.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 22 2013 at 09:18
Evidently Ohio has a law, which has yet to be challenged, that prohibits cars to be equipped with hidden compartments "with the intent of drug trafficking" (however that's to be measured). The first arrest was recently made.

Drug war strikes again.
"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 22 2013 at 09:15
Originally posted by JJLehto JJLehto wrote:

Long, and maybe a bit wonky and Keynes-y (sorry) but an inconvenient truth, I'm really starting to believe.

tl;dr if left to its own capitalism is inhernetly unstable...Prone to financialization that hijakcs the economy, leading to increasingly devestating bubbles, which are fueled by us going into debt, leading to the soaring inequality and "real economy" stagnation the world has seen since the 80s.
 
 
I really wonder what the folks here think.
I know the classic "It's not a true market" argument but IDK...maybe that notion really is archaic? Perhaps the economy has simply evolved and the late 1800s don't apply now?
I mean, this happened once before...and the 1920s were not a time of big gov, nor have been the 80s to now. I'm not saying the Fed doesn't make problems worse, but does seem to hold that periods of "leave it alone" leads to this finance driven systemic crash.
 
 


I can't say that I find the argument convincing at all really. The analysis like most that come to similar results is just incomplete. It really ignores the issue of time preference most obviously which, although the school is riddled with faults, flaws, and wackjobs, is a really important contribution of austrian theory. I'm not sure how the 20s and the present era don't qualify as periods of big government.


"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 22 2013 at 07:20
Originally posted by rogerthat rogerthat wrote:

There is a theory that US and West European economies have reached saturation and financial engineering in the 80s onwards was just a way to keep things going.  I don't know how far it is true.  But I have observed that from 2008 onwards, our big firms have started preferring Koreans even for fairly high tech capital equipment.  They only buy from Germans or French when they don't have options from Korea.  Koreans are very aggressive and bid for huge projects at ridiculously low prices and THEN work out how they can make it profitable!

 It seems that the only way out is either a massive productivity jump for US/West Europe or a massive wage cut.  But the export market for your machines is going to get more and more restricted in future at existing prices.
 
Of course the US is mainly a service economy now, and I think many western countries are? Sans Germany and Japan though we've already discussed how you can't export forever, as China is realizing. I've said before while I get the benefits of open trade, it does seem to be a double edged sword that can bring downsides.
 
What exactly is meant by saturation? It does seem reasonable to me that we all have just "maxed out", done all we can, made all we can, and now are a finance driven service economy based on internal consumption. The natural process. I guess only problem with that is, this happened before in the 1920s and the US did bounce back.
 
I read a book by Eric Janszen that did indeed claim we pretty much need a new new deal, maybe not in the FDR sense but that the gov needs to basically jump start things and bring the productivity jump. Hit the reset button and do it again better. IDK how realistic this is but he did claim there's plenty the US can still produce, and there's always stuff to do, so we can find a way to bring a productivity jump. Since wage cut seems unacceptable.
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