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Topic ClosedCovid-19 and the madness of crowds
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Tapfret View Drop Down
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Points: 8634 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 09:27
Originally posted by lazland lazland wrote:

Call Trump and Boris what you will, but neither are remotely on the Xi or Putin scale.


Speaking of which, Russia is definitely a place that I feel has been less than forthcoming about their covid numbers. No way they have only 250 cases sharing a 2000 mile border with patient zero.

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micky View Drop Down
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Points: 46843 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 09:28
again..I'm a knuckle dragging idiot whose only talents are...   I'll get back to you on that once I figure out what those that don't involve  having 9 lives and a failure to put myself into an early grave with self abuses ... or other 'talents'  that are probably TMI for the forum.

I'm no doctor of course.. but disregarding China and what they report.. we do have hard numbers from outside China and there is a difference between the mortality rates (disregarding Iran for several reasons) between the two countries most affected. That are neither totalitarian as China nor blatently corrupt and politically self serving as ours.  One has a much higher rate of mortality and both similar in pertient ways.  Very close in smoking rates, high percentage in older populations, modern densely packed soceities with excellent health care.  

perhaps it isn't a mutation per se but genetic. It is entierely possible that asians are more resistant to this than westerners. Be it diet, genetics.. whatever. For what S.K. has reported.. yes I can see a plausibility of the possibility that there was much less impact on the Chinese people than it might here upon us in the west. 

anyhow.. the numbers are what they are for a comparitable soceity to ours. Italy and this virus is not a world ender.. but is likely to be a world changer.  It isn't the f**king flu. Mortality rate appears to be in the 2-4 percent range which is much much higher than the common bug or influenza.
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Points: 46843 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 10:18
interesting.. and perhaps why we are being warned the new normal for as long as next year is living with this.

we are learning about the bug



The virus is much more infectious than influenza or the SARS virus, which it closely resembles. This week, new data showed that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, can live on contaminated surfaces as the SARS virus can, so it may spread, sometimes explosively, from doorknobs, elevator buttons and contaminated surfaces in hospitals and elsewhere. But we also learned that, unlike SARS, patients become highly infectious before they become seriously ill, explaining at least in part why Covid-19 acts like a super-SARS, far more infectious than its vanquished cousin.

and on that note.. fresh in the news this morning...  looks like we are giving up on trying to contain it..too much economic interests at play to do what needs to be done and shut it down.. but trying to mitagate the numbers that will die from it. Quite simply..  our substandard and for profit health care system is already being overwhemed. We can't even test for it. Which means this will likely be around for months... and months ... which is what the experts feared once it got here.

short story summation... we are on our own with this one..

doctors are being advised not to test those experiencing only mild respiratory symptoms unless “a diagnostic result will change clinical management or inform public health response.”

The recommendation reflects a "shifting from a strategy of case containment to slowing disease transmission and averting excess morbidity and mortality," according to the statement.
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Points: 13244 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 10:31
Originally posted by Tapfret Tapfret wrote:

Originally posted by Angelo Angelo wrote:

Oh, and forget about the three weeks, Tapfret. We’re three weeks into a four week lockdown and it’s likely to be extended by at least two more weeks.


I'm not talking about 3 weeks to ending restrictions and social distancing measures. Far from it. I'm talking 3 weeks to "flattening the curve". Admittedly, extremely difficult to measure as testing has been slow, to put it mildly. In the US Pacific Northwest it is likely the virus was in the community for a couple weeks before symptomatic testing even started. So right now the US doubling rate is pretty skewed (2.4 days vs 5-8 days for most worldwide studies). However you look at it, with 330,000,000 people, 3 weeks at the current rate of virulence will be devastating.

Anyway, I am far from saying that we will be filling stadiums in 3 weeks, or even opening restaurants. Just pointing out the trend is likely to flatten in that time. Flattening does not mean ending, just making the doubling time weeks, rather than days. Even with that, systemic strains on emergency and intensive care will be profound. As a health care worker I can assure you that I am well aware that the sh*t that is coming will be heavy and sustained. I've already worked on one of the covid units and I am certain in 7-14 days we will all be covid units.

Anyway, hope you and your family/friends are safe and healthy. Good luck.


I meant the same. It is not flattening...
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Points: 13244 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 10:34
Originally posted by The Dark Elf The Dark Elf wrote:

<p style="margin: 0px 0px 6px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb28, 30, 33; font-size: 14px;">Huh...would you look at that....Man-made pollution and carbon emissions dropped dramatically in Italy and China when the Coronavirus caused people and governments to change their habits.

<p style="margin: 6px 0px; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb28, 30, 33; font-size: 14px;">So the pandemic has had an unintended effect - less air pollution. Cleaner air can improve public health, maybe even save lives.

<p style="margin: 6px 0px 0px; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb28, 30, 33; font-size: 14px;">People can change climate change.

<p style="margin: 6px 0px 0px; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb28, 30, 33; font-size: 14px;">

<p style="margin: 6px 0px 0px; display: inline; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb28, 30, 33; font-size: 14px;">https://www.space.com/coronavirus-pollution-emissions-drop-china-italy-satellite-views.html?fbclid=IwAR2q3mt-vU2EZzDFL0Ln89TpI8CuQ5kS3JWIVx6PboxocjdjbirbGJ44_1s



The Alps are 45 minutes from our house by car. For the first time in a year we’ve been able to see them from here every day for a full week. The city of Milan is in between, says a lot.
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Points: 20617 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 10:43
Originally posted by Catcher10 Catcher10 wrote:

Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Originally posted by Catcher10 Catcher10 wrote:

Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Trump to reporters in briefing: You're sitting too close

Inside Politics

During a White House press briefing with the coronavirus task force, President Donald Trump told reporters they were sitting too close and said the White House needed to cut down the number of journalists at the briefings.
Source: CNN
How about that. Tongue

My position is still the same on testing...
Yeah, we know.

Hopefully people will read my entire post and not just what you posted, which contributes to fake news. Your opinion and my opinion, just deal with it and relax.
LOL Democrats spouting fake news. Trump's brainwashing has worked!
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Points: 20617 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 10:50
Originally posted by Cosmiclawnmower Cosmiclawnmower wrote:

My daughter and one of my grandsons are confirmed as having the virusCry and are in isolation in Bristol. More worryingly she is about 6 months pregnant. When it becomes personal, it really hits home.
This is really sad and my best wishes go out to you and your loved ones. PA may not be a family but it is a community that's made up of a great amount of decent folks and even our differences regarding politics, music or whatever cannot put a dent in that. We're all in this together and what effects one member effects us all. Rest assured that many here are pulling for you.

Edited by SteveG - March 21 2020 at 10:54
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Points: 20617 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 10:54
All my testing bravado seems for naught as NY and CA are going to scale down testing radically as there is not enough personal protective equipment, like masks and gloves, for the technicians to wear in order to perform the tests. This really is resembling life during wartime and I hope that our national leaders are up to it.
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Points: 46843 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 10:56
hah...  I've always seen it the opposite way Steve.  PA's may not be a community but a family made of misfits, oddities, freaks of nature, and marvels of modern chemistry that get would get tossed out of communities but are loved and accepted here as only one could could with one's family members.

one chooses a community.. you don't choose a family..
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Points: 20617 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 10:58
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

hah...  I've always seen it the opposite way Steve.  PA's may not be a community but a family made of misfits, oddities, freaks of nature, and marvels of modern chemistry that get would get tossed out of communities but are loved and accepted here as only one could could with one's family members.

one chooses a community.. you don't choose a family..
No, as you can't unfriend your family. I know as I've tried! LOL
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Points: 46843 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 11:00
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Points: 18042 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 12:02
Originally posted by Tapfret Tapfret wrote:

Originally posted by lazland lazland wrote:

Call Trump and Boris what you will, but neither are remotely on the Xi or Putin scale.


Speaking of which, Russia is definitely a place that I feel has been less than forthcoming about their covid numbers. No way they have only 250 cases sharing a 2000 mile border with patient zero.
I was thinking of this last night we have not heard much from Russia, they have been "quiet". I'm also concerned about southern hemisphere countries as they come out of summer and enter their flu season, Brazil especially.
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Points: 13244 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 14:34
The madness of crowds is being handled harder now in Italy, at least in Lombardy. The army is now patrolling the streets of Milan, and violators of the rules (only go out for groceries, medicines or work) is now fined with 5000 euros.
If it helps nobody knows, but the fascist Lega governor believes in fear as a means to contorl the people.
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Points: 65821 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 15:06
^ Except he could get sick too.   Hopefully we'll all have some natural immunities a year or two from now, and we''ll just have to live with this strain of flu like we do other viruses.





Edited by Atavachron - March 21 2020 at 15:07
"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought."   -- John F. Kennedy
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Points: 46843 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 17:11
Originally posted by Angelo Angelo wrote:

The madness of crowds is being handled harder now in Italy, at least in Lombardy. The army is now patrolling the streets of Milan, and violators of the rules (only go out for groceries, medicines or work) is now fined with 5000 euros.
If it helps nobody knows, but the fascist Lega governor believes in fear as a means to contorl the people.

hah..well .. fear is a bit underrrated..  otherwise ignorance and stupidity rules.. sometimes people .. the masses ...might need a kick in the ass and need to be told what it right for them and they have bigger worries than running out of f**king toilet paperLOL  A bit of right wing fear mongering and old school kick assing...might serve us better than the current right wing ....spend money at the f**king beach on spring break or at the damn local 'essential' Gamestop and help prop the economy.... kind of control.
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Points: 46843 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 17:53
Originally posted by Catcher10 Catcher10 wrote:

Originally posted by Tapfret Tapfret wrote:

Originally posted by lazland lazland wrote:

Call Trump and Boris what you will, but neither are remotely on the Xi or Putin scale.


Speaking of which, Russia is definitely a place that I feel has been less than forthcoming about their covid numbers. No way they have only 250 cases sharing a 2000 mile border with patient zero.
I was thinking of this last night we have not heard much from Russia, they have been "quiet". I'm also concerned about southern hemisphere countries as they come out of summer and enter their flu season, Brazil especially.

Bolivia is already under total lockdown,, total quarantine.. it has already spread to the southern atmosphere 

and summer/winter.. doesn't matter. cases reported all over in hot tropical/equatorer regions..  it isn't a seasonal bug..either showing up.. or disappearing depending the temperature or season.


Edited by micky - March 21 2020 at 17:54
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Points: 15447 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 22:18
And then there's this.....

https://rateyourmusic.com/~siLLy_puPPy
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Points: 13244 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 03:00


Btw, Mickster, does Tal Wilkenfeld know she’s in your avatar? Yes, I know my stuff 😉
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Points: 46843 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 07:54
LOL nah... I doubt she does haha.  

Besides I'm better known throughout the internet by my avatar and alter-ego pissed off Elmo with a gun...

and there goes the neighborhood... reason 1a why this isn't going away quickly.  China getting hit again by a new wave of cases...this time by the boomerang effect. People from outside China bringing it back in as they try to return to normal.  Poor Italy and places like that.. they will eventually tamp it down.. and likely have it come back as we try to return to the old normal.  Is is a 9-11ish event but on global scale..  things... life will really change.
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Points: 66784 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 11:09
I hope you all have good virus protection on your computers....I just sneezed on the screen. 
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