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nick_h_nz View Drop Down
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Points: 6742 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2022 at 09:43
This may have been posted before, but I think it might make interesting reading for some. There are definitely some Westsplainers who post in this thread…. 😜
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Points: 6052 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2022 at 10:13
@Nick

Nick, the history of Ukraine, and of Crimea, and the relations of these areas with Russia are very complex.

In any case, Crimea is an area with a Russian majority, and occupied by Russia. Whether this is right or not can be debated, but the fact remains that nothing now but a war against Russia can change this state of affairs.
So I don't see how we can think that Crimea should go back to being an integral part of Ukraine.

I have no nationalistic sentiment, and no sympathy for Putin. I'm just saying that Crimea is already Russian. And it is not an occupation like the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories, because Crimea has a Russian majority. The Ukrainian wife of one of my best friends agrees that Crimea is Russian.
And I'm talking about a girl whose parents are living now in Kiev, under the Russian bombs.

The Donbass republics have been in revolt for many years and Ukraine in Minsk had signed pacts that guaranteed them semi-independence. You can believe what you want, in a pro-Nato or pro-Putin narrative, but in those regions there was a repression by the Ukraine, which also used the famous neo-Nazi battalions. This was reported by the Western press in recent years, not the Russian press.

So, even in that case, I don't see how you can think, now that Russia has invaded Ukraine starting from the defense of those republics, how these areas can return to Ukraine. Only a supporter of Ukrainian nationalist propaganda can think this: but then Ukraine would become the aggressor who wants to annex land that is no longer its own.

I would have no problem if the Italian South Tyrol, which we call Alto Adige, were ceded by Italy to Austria if its citizens feel more Austrian, just as I believe that Spain should allow Catalonia to hold a referendum to ask for secession.
Based on this, I could say that the best solution in the Donbass republics would be a referendum for independence from Ukraine, but I do not think it is realistic. Same thing for Crimea. 
But again, here we are in the field of the ideal, and not of the real.

Finally, I assure you that many people of Western Europe have understood, at this point, that the alternatives are:

1) The Third World War (Nato against Russia) or a long and devastating war between Ukraine and Russia

2) the acceptance of these concessions to Putin which, I repeat, do not provide for annexation of any Ukrainian territory.

So, what do you prefer?
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Points: 6742 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2022 at 10:28
Easy. Third World War. And I would have chosen this option in 2014, too - though perhaps less easily. But certainly, I find it disgusting that the West sits back and watches simply because Ukraine is not part of their gang.

I used to not understand how people could willingly go to fight in a war which did not (at that time) affect their own country or liberty. But, though of course I would be terrified, I would willingly go and fight for Ukraine if there were conscription. I would be metaphorical cannon fodder, but I would still feel that was a morally right way to die.

I am a pacifist at heart. I have never been in a fight in my life. I used to bullied at school, in part because I would never fight back. And I have never wanted to fight. I don’t agree with war. But Putin has made this a war, and I agree with sitting on the fence even less than I do with war.

I think it’s stupid to fear Putin’s nuclear threats, and not go to war with Russia because of them. In fact, I don’t for a moment believe that the NATO leaders are genuinely afraid of Putin going nuke. It makes a convenient excuse, as there are convenient excuses on all sides of the war for actions, reactions, and inactions.

I’m sure that wasn’t the answer you were expecting, but there at is. You have named one person who believes Crimea is Russian, and that is meaningless to me. I could come back at you with others who say and think different. I know both Russians and Ukrainians in Crimea who believe Crimea is Ukraine. There is no “intents and purposes” at all, except for an illegal invasion and occupation.
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Points: 6878 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2022 at 10:33
Easy, I choose the acceptance of these concessions to Putin which, I repeat, do not provide for annexation of any Ukrainian territory.  

Around 80 million people died in WW II.  I don't want a nuclear war.  I fear hundreds of millions would perish. 
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Points: 6742 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2022 at 10:40
Yeah, it’s very easy to choose the acceptance of one country losing sovereignty to the another, when it is not your own. That’s why Chamberlain’s “peace in our time” was cheered for.

But there’s no way Putin will stop there, if his demands are met. He may not go further into Ukraine, but there are plenty of other juicy morsels for him: Moldova, Georgia, Kazachstan. Not only that, but it will be further proof that NATO will allow him to do just that - so long as he doesn’t intrude on their borders.

You may well be fine with that, but I am not. And I would rather more countries were drawn into the conflict. I don’t think they should need to be drawn into it, so much as put themselves into it - but clearly that is not going to happen. So I hope one of those shells near the Polish border accidentally goes a little too far. I hope we do head into WWIII - because apart from his death, it’s the only way Putin will be stopped.
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Points: 53465 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2022 at 10:41
Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:

Originally posted by progaardvark progaardvark wrote:

Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:

[QUOTE=progaardvark][QUOTE=omphaloskepsis]


Need I remind you that before this conflict you distrusted US intelligence sources and thought Putin would not invade Ukraine? Guess which sources were right on that one. Maybe you should reconsider that you're being duped by Putin's propaganda.

Thanks for reminding me of my December 11 post, which is still visible on Progarchives. I'll paste it below.
Dec. 11, 2021
"My opinion-

1. As long as Ukraine does not join NATO.
2. As long as NATO/America does not install missiles in Ukraine. 
3. As long as NATO/America does not put Troops on the ground in Ukraine.
4. As long as Ukraine does not attack Donbas,

Russia will not attack Ukraine." 

1.Ukraine attempted to join NATO. I saw it on America News.

2. Ukraine Nazi battalion "Azov" shelled and attacked the Donbas in the weeks proceeding Russian invasion. The Azov Battalion proudly admit that they are NAZI's. They killed thousands of people in the Donbass. 
 
3. Although America did not put troops on ground.  America financed Bio Labs (Which America's Victoria Nuland admitted before the Senate).  If you remember, America invaded Iraq after accusing Iraq of Weapons of Mass Destruction.  According to International Law, Bio Labs qualify as Weapons of Mass Destruction. Victoria Nuland expressed worry at what Russia would do if Russia took over Ukraine/American Bio Labs.



ProgArdvark wrote-
"The spellings do matter on that propaganda map you posted. By using Russian spellings for Ukrainian cities, it is symbolic of Putin treating Ukraine as if it was Russian and always belonged to Russia. It's an insult to the Ukrainian people."

American Spellings are used on American Media maps of Ukraine. I agree with you ProgArdvark. By using America spellings for Ukrainian cities, it is symbolic of Biden treating Ukraine as if it was American and will always belong to America. It's an insult to the Ukrainian people."




You didn't understand my post at all. I'm sorry that I can't get through to you.
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Points: 6742 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2022 at 10:43
^Oh, I think she did, but is being wilfully obtuse (as usual).
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Points: 53465 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2022 at 10:52
Originally posted by nick_h_nz nick_h_nz wrote:

Yeah, it’s very easy to choose the acceptance of one country losing sovereignty to the another, when it is not your own. That’s why Chamberlain’s “peace in our time” was cheered for.

But there’s no way Putin will stop there, if his demands are met. He may not go further into Ukraine, but there are plenty of other juicy morsels for him: Moldova, Georgia, Kazachstan. Not only that, but it will be further proof that NATO will allow him to do just that - so long as he doesn’t intrude on their borders.

You may well be fine with that, but I am not. And I would rather more countries were drawn into the conflict. I don’t think they should need to be drawn into it, so much as put themselves into it - but clearly that is not going to happen. So I hope one of those shells near the Polish border accidentally goes a little too far. I hope we do head into WWIII - because apart from his death, it’s the only way Putin will be stopped.


I understand your point of view on this, and regrettably, I agree that we may have reached that point where something more significant needs to be done. I absolutely detest war, but if democracies are to survive in this world we have to put our foot down to autocracies and say enough is enough. Every time we give in to their demands, they think they can take more. I'm still hoping cooler heads will prevail, but that seems less and less likely to happen.
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Points: 10732 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2022 at 11:09
I have always been anti-war and have actively worked against all US military aggression, but I think we have a special case here. I don't think putin will stop unless he is made to stop. His utter disregard for human life, both Russian and non-Russian, has been made very clear at this point.

Edited by Easy Money - March 16 2022 at 11:13
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Points: 5319 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2022 at 12:00
The issues that face the entire world are not going to go away because an ego driven madman wants some attention.
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Points: 10732 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2022 at 12:07
More news from Slava working the refugee center in Vilnius:

Migration Dept opened three more refugee centers around country, so the one in Vilnius is slightly less crowded. From other hand, no one knows what will happen tomorrow. These days authorities organize Ukrainian refugees transfer from Moldova to Lithuania, Moldova is flooded by them and absolutely have no resources even for minimal support. Poland is overcrowded with almost 2 MLN of refugees. Germany asked Poland to stop transfer refugees there. 15% of Warsaw population in a moment are refugees from Ukraine.

Today the decision to recruit 270 more employees around the country has been done by Lithuanian Migration Dept (for now there are 500 + employees in Dept in total) what sounds as relief. But the recruitment takes time, and than then all will need at least initial training
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Points: 15394 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2022 at 12:37
The first thing that is clear is that it's for the Ukrainians to decide, and not for us, whether to accept one or more of Putin's conditions. One may personally hope for the Ukrainians to fight on or to concede, but it's Ukrainian lives on the line in the first place, and of course their country.

That said, here's what I think. I'm really in two minds about this.
For me the key question is really whether Putin would stop if these points, neutral Ukraine, Donbass region and Crimea to Russia, were to be fulfilled. If this were indeed the case, many lives could be saved by such an agreement, and for sure, while the Ukrainians may want to fight on for their own reasons, and they have the right to do it as it's their country, nobody in the West sitting safely at home in my view should say, better these people die because it is just not morally right to cede anything to Putin.

I don't expect Putin to be replaced in the near future, and neither do I expect the Russians to give up winning this war. Russia is, unfortunately, too big and strong to be effectively policed. The best that can be done against Russian aggression is to have the ability to defend oneself, optimally as a powerful alliance, strong enough that Russia wouldn't dare to attack in the first place. I very much hope that NATO is strong enough for this, and of course in Europe we should do all we can to make ourselves more independent of the US, or at least to contribute stronger to our own defense. Unfortunately this has not worked out for Ukraine, however I do think it is right to support Ukraine only as far as we can without becoming direct party of the war. There is in my view certainly a chance that Putin understands he cannot go further, but he has already gone so far that he probably cannot accept defeat there, meaning that he may be up for world war with NATO over Ukraine (as conceding there would kill all he stands for, inconceivable for him to allow at pretty much any price), but not beyond. The bitter pill to swallow obviously would be that he may get what he wanted (maybe less but still enough for him to celebrate it as a victory), and we will feel bad about this. Hard to take really but I can very realistically imagine worse to happen. At the end of the day, let's support the Ukrainians as far as they want to go, but for sure let's not try to push them further. And also, with all due respect, I wouldn't go to world war for them, as this would involve many other human beings in many places who haven't decided on their own that they want to be part of it. Too high a price to pay for NATO pride!

The risk is of course that Putin indeed may try his luck elsewhere if he is at least to some extent successful in Ukraine. I'm not as sure as Nick that this will be the case. The Ukraine had a special place in Russian communication before this year, Georgia and Kazakhstan can hardly be sold to the Russian people as "really Russian". I don't believe he will directly attack NATO. This in fact (and also any potential Georgian, Moldovan etc. advanture) becomes the less likely the more the Russians suffer in Ukraine, which of course is a very good reason to hope for the Ukrainians to fight on and to do as well as they can, and to help them there.

I don't know. Not sure whether I envy those who think they know what's right. You may look down on me for being so morally weak that I'd think Donbass and Crimea can be conceded to the aggressor to save lives, but here we go. Putin needs to be stopped and the world needs peace. I do have on my radar what happened in 1938 and I know there is no guarantee Putin will stop. I just give a narrowly larger subjective probability for avoiding further atrocities in case Putin's conditions are accepted for once (of course with a properly free and self governed remaining part of the Ukraine), Putin is not quite Hitler and 2022 is not quite 1938, but at the end who am I to know? Up to the Ukrainians to decide for themselves!

   
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Points: 10732 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2022 at 13:48
Hundreds seeking refuge in a theatre in Mariupol were just bombed.
"Video shows Mariupol theater packed with women and children before it was destroyed"
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-march-16-2022/

Edited by Easy Money - March 16 2022 at 13:55
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Points: 20617 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2022 at 14:15
Originally posted by Lewian Lewian wrote:

The first thing that is clear is that it's for the Ukrainians to decide, and not for us, whether to accept one or more of Putin's conditions. One may personally hope for the Ukrainians to fight on or to concede, but it's Ukrainian lives on the line in the first place, and of course their country.

That said, here's what I think. I'm really in two minds about this.
For me the key question is really whether Putin would stop if these points, neutral Ukraine, Donbass region and Crimea to Russia, were to be fulfilled. If this were indeed the case, many lives could be saved by such an agreement, and for sure, while the Ukrainians may want to fight on for their own reasons, and they have the right to do it as it's their country, nobody in the West sitting safely at home in my view should say, better these people die because it is just not morally right to cede anything to Putin.

I don't expect Putin to be replaced in the near future, and neither do I expect the Russians to give up winning this war. Russia is, unfortunately, too big and strong to be effectively policed. The best that can be done against Russian aggression is to have the ability to defend oneself, optimally as a powerful alliance, strong enough that Russia wouldn't dare to attack in the first place. I very much hope that NATO is strong enough for this, and of course in Europe we should do all we can to make ourselves more independent of the US, or at least to contribute stronger to our own defense. Unfortunately this has not worked out for Ukraine, however I do think it is right to support Ukraine only as far as we can without becoming direct party of the war. There is in my view certainly a chance that Putin understands he cannot go further, but he has already gone so far that he probably cannot accept defeat there, meaning that he may be up for world war with NATO over Ukraine (as conceding there would kill all he stands for, inconceivable for him to allow at pretty much any price), but not beyond. The bitter pill to swallow obviously would be that he may get what he wanted (maybe less but still enough for him to celebrate it as a victory), and we will feel bad about this. Hard to take really but I can very realistically imagine worse to happen. At the end of the day, let's support the Ukrainians as far as they want to go, but for sure let's not try to push them further. And also, with all due respect, I wouldn't go to world war for them, as this would involve many other human beings in many places who haven't decided on their own that they want to be part of it. Too high a price to pay for NATO pride!

The risk is of course that Putin indeed may try his luck elsewhere if he is at least to some extent successful in Ukraine. I'm not as sure as Nick that this will be the case. The Ukraine had a special place in Russian communication before this year, Georgia and Kazakhstan can hardly be sold to the Russian people as "really Russian". I don't believe he will directly attack NATO. This in fact (and also any potential Georgian, Moldovan etc. advanture) becomes the less likely the more the Russians suffer in Ukraine, which of course is a very good reason to hope for the Ukrainians to fight on and to do as well as they can, and to help them there.

I don't know. Not sure whether I envy those who think they know what's right. You may look down on me for being so morally weak that I'd think Donbass and Crimea can be conceded to the aggressor to save lives, but here we go. Putin needs to be stopped and the world needs peace. I do have on my radar what happened in 1938 and I know there is no guarantee Putin will stop. I just give a narrowly larger subjective probability for avoiding further atrocities in case Putin's conditions are accepted for once (of course with a properly free and self governed remaining part of the Ukraine), Putin is not quite Hitler and 2022 is not quite 1938, but at the end who am I to know? Up to the Ukrainians to decide for themselves!

   
A very thoughtful and honest post. I can only add that it's up to the Ukrainians to decide what is right and support their decisions. Either to fight on or surrender. It is, as you said, their country and their choice.
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Points: 20617 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2022 at 14:18
Originally posted by Easy Money Easy Money wrote:

Hundreds seeking refuge in a theatre in Mariupol were just bombed.
"Video shows Mariupol theater packed with women and children before it was destroyed"
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-march-16-2022/
In a violent action filled with atrocities, this may be the worst so far. Heartbreaking.

Edited by SteveG - March 16 2022 at 14:19
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Points: 15394 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2022 at 14:46
Originally posted by jamesbaldwin jamesbaldwin wrote:


Nick, the history of Ukraine, and of Crimea, and the relations of these areas with Russia are very complex.

In any case, Crimea is an area with a Russian majority, and occupied by Russia. Whether this is right or not can be debated, but the fact remains that nothing now but a war against Russia can change this state of affairs.
So I don't see how we can think that Crimea should go back to being an integral part of Ukraine.

I have no nationalistic sentiment, and no sympathy for Putin. I'm just saying that Crimea is already Russian. And it is not an occupation like the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories, because Crimea has a Russian majority. The Ukrainian wife of one of my best friends agrees that Crimea is Russian.
And I'm talking about a girl whose parents are living now in Kiev, under the Russian bombs.

The Donbass republics have been in revolt for many years and Ukraine in Minsk had signed pacts that guaranteed them semi-independence. You can believe what you want, in a pro-Nato or pro-Putin narrative, but in those regions there was a repression by the Ukraine, which also used the famous neo-Nazi battalions. This was reported by the Western press in recent years, not the Russian press.

So, even in that case, I don't see how you can think, now that Russia has invaded Ukraine starting from the defense of those republics, how these areas can return to Ukraine. Only a supporter of Ukrainian nationalist propaganda can think this: but then Ukraine would become the aggressor who wants to annex land that is no longer its own.
I believe that in principle there's only one authority to decide about where Crimea and the Donbass region belongs, and that's the people of these regions. From the outside nobody is entitled to say they "are really Russian" (or Ukrainian for that matter). We should not play Putin's game to derive something like a "true nature" of regions by shady historical or ethnical arguments ("Crimea is Russian"). And neither can this be determined by, say, referenda or declarations in the midst of war with people having a gun pointed at their head, as Putin seems to believe.

If I say that I can imagine that the Ukrainians accept to lose these regions, I say this grudgingly and for purely pragmatic reasons, to save lives and to avoid further escalation. Democracy is an ideal but where it doesn't exist, other considerations will decide what happens, which is acknowledging reality, nothing else. For sure I will not buy into any reasoning that states some kind of "natural right" of anyone there (neither Russia nor Ukraine nor Ukrainian wives of best friends) other than the people of these regions themselves, and of course if they are split on this, it's a tough problem they have to deal with themselves ultimately. The fact that people are displaced and population willfully changed by external forces doesn't help either.
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Points: 1587 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2022 at 16:40
Originally posted by nick_h_nz nick_h_nz wrote:

... Putin has made this a war, and I agree with sitting on the fence even less than I do with war.

I think it’s stupid to fear Putin’s nuclear threats, and not go to war with Russia because of them....


One of the thing that concerns and alarms me about this current conflict is that one person can have the say over the fate of so many.
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Points: 6052 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2022 at 17:14
Originally posted by Lewian Lewian wrote:

Originally posted by jamesbaldwin jamesbaldwin wrote:


Nick, the history of Ukraine, and of Crimea, and the relations of these areas with Russia are very complex.

In any case, Crimea is an area with a Russian majority, and occupied by Russia. Whether this is right or not can be debated, but the fact remains that nothing now but a war against Russia can change this state of affairs.
So I don't see how we can think that Crimea should go back to being an integral part of Ukraine.

I have no nationalistic sentiment, and no sympathy for Putin. I'm just saying that Crimea is already Russian. And it is not an occupation like the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories, because Crimea has a Russian majority. The Ukrainian wife of one of my best friends agrees that Crimea is Russian.
And I'm talking about a girl whose parents are living now in Kiev, under the Russian bombs.

The Donbass republics have been in revolt for many years and Ukraine in Minsk had signed pacts that guaranteed them semi-independence. You can believe what you want, in a pro-Nato or pro-Putin narrative, but in those regions there was a repression by the Ukraine, which also used the famous neo-Nazi battalions. This was reported by the Western press in recent years, not the Russian press.

So, even in that case, I don't see how you can think, now that Russia has invaded Ukraine starting from the defense of those republics, how these areas can return to Ukraine. Only a supporter of Ukrainian nationalist propaganda can think this: but then Ukraine would become the aggressor who wants to annex land that is no longer its own.
I believe that in principle there's only one authority to decide about where Crimea and the Donbass region belongs, and that's the people of these regions. From the outside nobody is entitled to say they "are really Russian" (or Ukrainian for that matter). We should not play Putin's game to derive something like a "true nature" of regions by shady historical or ethnical arguments ("Crimea is Russian"). And neither can this be determined by, say, referenda or declarations in the midst of war with people having a gun pointed at their head, as Putin seems to believe.

If I say that I can imagine that the Ukrainians accept to lose these regions, I say this grudgingly and for purely pragmatic reasons, to save lives and to avoid further escalation. Democracy is an ideal but where it doesn't exist, other considerations will decide what happens, which is acknowledging reality, nothing else. For sure I will not buy into any reasoning that states some kind of "natural right" of anyone there (neither Russia nor Ukraine nor Ukrainian wives of best friends) other than the people of these regions themselves, and of course if they are split on this, it's a tough problem they have to deal with themselves ultimately. The fact that people are displaced and population willfully changed by external forces doesn't help either.

It is clear that only the Ukrainians can decide their fate, and speaking of this matter, I would like to know how many of them approve of Zelenskij's war policy: it is wrong to assume that they agree with him.

Said this, I think that:
1) If you want to negotiate, you must be willing to give something, otherwise there can be no negotiation
2) If you want to wage war to the bitter end, it is not indifferent to European nations: they will have to host many refugees
3) an outside observer like me, just as he judges Putin's war as a criminal, also judges the behavior of Zelenskij, the European Union, Italy, etc. In my opinion Zelenskij is proving to be an unreliable and dangerous politician because every day he sends false news (Chernobyl), creates provocative videos (Paris bombed), asks for NATO to enter the war, offends Europe which should show pride and go to war etc.
4) Crimea has been occupied by Russia for years, and in any case its ethnic-linguistic composition, as far as I know, is predominantly Russian. Now, a referendum would be the best thing for Crimea and Donbass (and I believe the option to stay in Ukraine would not win) but obviously it would have to be done in peacetime and under the UN control.
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Points: 20617 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2022 at 17:46
Whatever reason you have to malign Zelenskyy can only be born from your anti democracy, pro socialist stance. To freedom loving people, he is a hero in an era when so few exist

Edited by SteveG - March 16 2022 at 17:47
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Points: 6052 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2022 at 18:01
Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Whatever reason you have to malign Zelenskyy can only be born from your anti democracy, pro socialist stance. To freedom loving people, he is a hero in an era when so few exist

The logic of war:

if anyone doesn't praise Zelenskyj, if anyone doesn't consider him a hero, then ...

this can only be born from his anti democracy, pro socialist stance....

Confused
Amos Goldberg (professor of Genocide Studies at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem): Yes, it's genocide. It's so difficult and painful to admit it, but we can no longer avoid this conclusion.
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