The American Politics Thread

For what it's worth Biden is leading in most of the polls I've seen by a good margin. I realize that doesn't always mean much but it's something. 

The cult surrounding Trump is neither secretive nor scared of voicing their opinion; in fact, you can't get them to shut up spewing nonsense. I also think that there is no concerted group of people "lying" to pollsters. If anything, they simply aren't answering the phone.

I'm surprised he hasn't accused the earth of changing the axis of it's rotation in order confuse republican voters when to be at the polls.

Texas is a bit of a wildcard here because it does not report party affiliation of the early votes unlike several other states (including Florida, where registered Democrats lead registered Republicans). 

I think that's why you are not hearing much from either side on this.  For the Republicans, a loss in Texas is too scary to contemplate.  It's the only BIG state that's been reliably Red. For the Dems, they don't want to get too cocky.  Trump doesn't have the resources to spend on Texas and is trying to fight Biden in the Upper Midwest.  Biden too is focusing on what is flippable as per conventional wisdom.  

HOWEVER, early voting in Texas has already exceeded the total vote in 2016.  Just think about that stat.  There is something afoot there.  Are there conservatives who have decided to vote this time because they don't want to lose the state to Biden?  Sure, some of them spoke to Guardian in their Anywhere But Washington episode.  But much of the increase in voting has come from metropolitan centers which in Texas too (like many other states) trend Democratic.  So THAT does not augur well for Trump.  If Texas flips, it's over for him.  And Texas counts ballots as they are received, whether mail in or person, so Texas will likely be announced on election day.  It would put paid to all of Trump's grand plans to use the newly minted conservative judge to steal the election in close states that aren't done counting. 

It's not a guarantee but the Texas data together with single digit leads for Trump in normally solid red states like Kansas, Alaska or Montana suggests a general weakening of support for Trump across the board. It would still not be enough (to ensure a Trump loss) if he manages to hold on to PA and also win Ohio and Florida...that is, if he wins Texas.

as I did after 2016.. replaced by looking at  hard numbers.. trends.. results

the best number.. national...Democrat +10..  that is what happened when both Democrats and Republicans both turn out in historic numbers

but 2020 is not 2018...  a few things have happened in this country I might have heard about..

I would not be the least bit surprised to see the final Talley approach Biden +15. As split ticket voting is finally rearing...finally putting its 2nd foot in the grave.. Republicans have long ditched it.. Democrats finally are. Straight ticket voting and the commonality of it .. is one of the biggest changes in this country politically in the last decade.

no one thinks sharing power.. or split control works.. see Mitch McConnell. It only leads to obstruction. .nothing getting done.

this is looking like it could be a down ballot catastrophe for the Republicans.. as we have been saying (since 2018 haha) it could be.

it does look like 2020 will be like 2018 which Democrats overwelms the Republican base but even more thoroughly than it did in 2018 and why what was wave in 2018 could be tsunami in 2020.. and that mere 5-7 Senate seat flip could be a bit low but even more importantly.. at the state and local level as it is census and redistricting time...