American Politics the 2016 edition |
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JJLehto
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 05 2006 Location: Tallahassee, FL Status: Offline Points: 34550 |
Posted: December 23 2016 at 23:10 | ||
There is absolutely truth to this. Our celebrity worship has been shown off in glorious display with this election. Though you are right it's always been in our political culture, at least in modern times. I mean...let's look at the very start of widespread TV usage: 1960. JFK was handsome, made up and sounded nice. Nixon...none of that, though he was clearly more experienced, possibly smarter. Radio listeners felt Nixon was the clear winner, TV viewers thought it was JFK. You remind me of something I heard back in 2004 when John Kerry (the living (I think??) corpse) lost. How everyone who's beaten an incumbent has some type of moxie. That charisma, pizzazz, an image. Carter had it, as did Reagan and Bill Clinton. Ford, Kerry, Romney...nope. Even in normal elections: Gore vs Bush and Clinton vs Trump. In each it's clear which had more charisma (not saying the quality of it). In an election where people dont like either choice, the lesser disliked/more popular one may just win by default. We deff need a President with character. Sad to say, because much as I try to be strictly about issues, I cant escape this is not the norm. Quite the opposite Perot said no one cares about details, and Trump proved it right. I also hate to admit Sanders had some of this as well. I loved the guy because of his views/policies but he ran a not terribly detailed campaign, I wanted so bad for him to better defend himself, and I saw more than a few fans who just loved him more than any knowledge of issues. He was a different personality from the norm as well. Cant deny the impact of personality. Though since you mentioned Europe, I will say it does seem while the continent certainly lacks our addiction with celebrity, they seem just as prone to fear, baser instincts and demagoguery. A Merkel would never win here, but Merkels seem to be losing in Europe too. Except in Germany where those super cool, level headed folk are. Then again, I read displeasure in Germany with immigrants is on the rise, and there have been some supposedly red flags rising. Much like the US and the rest of the continent left and right wing populism seems on the rise there. Perhaps not even Germany is immune?
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Dean
Special Collaborator Retired Admin and Amateur Layabout Joined: May 13 2007 Location: Europe Status: Offline Points: 37575 |
Posted: December 23 2016 at 23:40 | ||
Germany has never been immune from following charismatic leaders.
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What?
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer Joined: September 03 2006 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 9869 |
Posted: December 23 2016 at 23:52 | ||
There's no doubt that populism and an attraction to strong men (goes hand in hand) is now sweeping through the world. Having been among the early movers in this regard, I hope the world can learn from the Indian experience, esp w.r.t demonetization - don't underestimate the importance of institutions...and the repercussions of handing them over to a man who disdains them. But even historically, it seems the USA is more attracted to charismatic leaders and, yes, the TV debate format and overall hyped up TV coverage may have contributed to it. This is where I really worry about what direction India is going in because our media in particular is attracted to American trends. They were never saints but at least they were fairly independent and 'low key' earlier. Now our media too is sharply polarised and the primetime debates tend to be either noisy shouting matches or dishonest or both. Thankfully no presidential system so no debates for the candidates, at least so far.
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer Joined: September 03 2006 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 9869 |
Posted: December 24 2016 at 03:15 | ||
Great article. Found another too about how life in a meritocracy can be exhausting. What's the solution, though? How to undo 30 plus years of Ayn Rand?
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Gamemako
Forum Senior Member Joined: March 31 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1184 |
Posted: December 24 2016 at 14:26 | ||
Truly, I think I could have lived with the presidency of many people. McCain, Kasich, hell, even Romney. I don't really agree with them, but I find them to be reasonable humans who would put their personal feelings aside to do what is necessary (especially McCain, who I would have voted for in a heartbeat this cycle). Trump scares me because he seems to be following through with his threat of governing from the extreme rather than the center, which is something we just don't see in U.S. politics. The closest analogue I could find in history would be Andrew Jackson 200 years ago, but his populism enjoyed strong majority support throughout where Trump has the lowest support among incoming presidents we've recorded. There's always the possibility that Trump instead assumes strong centrist position or spends his time pushing for policies which the Left also supports (e.g. infrastructure spending), but I would rather assume the worst.
Very difficult problem, but one we will have no choice but to address soon. Automation is accelerating as computers acquire the ability to generate strategies for weakly-constrained problems. That is what made Google's AlphaGo such a big deal, and I don't think most people realize just how large a leap that is. Humans are becoming superfluous in even complex professional tasks like engineering and medicine. A simple calculation based on the rate of net job creation in our best decade (1990s) minus the rate of job loss due to automation portends an unemployment rate in 2055 of 35% (relative to our current participation rate). Massive unemployment is an economic inevitability under our current system. I personally find the most likely solution to be a universal basic income. Whether or not we like it, it's a way to solve the issue without deliberately handicapping your economy. People will still want to work, but they will mostly have to work in creative and leisure pursuits. |
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Hail Eris!
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HackettFan
Forum Senior Member Joined: June 20 2012 Location: Oklahoma Status: Offline Points: 7951 |
Posted: December 24 2016 at 17:00 | ||
Yeah, any one of the small animals of the woodland forest would have been preferable. I've never been quite so frightened of US politics and governance in my lifetime. Andrew Jackson is a very good analog. Trump basically campaigned in favor of a new Trail of Tears. Even so, I think perhaps it's the environment where he is going to do the most damage. Umm...I think I recall it being Thomas Jefferson who spoke of Andrew Jackson as a very dangerous man. Imagine what he'd say about Trump. Edited by HackettFan - December 24 2016 at 17:01 |
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A curse upon the heads of those who seek their fortunes in a lie. The truth is always waiting when there's nothing left to try. - Colin Henson, Jade Warrior (Now)
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer Joined: September 03 2006 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 9869 |
Posted: December 25 2016 at 06:19 | ||
Yes, have been hearing about automation's relentless march. As to your last line, it's like Donald Fagen's fantasy (expressed in IGY) coming true in a scary way: "90 minutes from New York to Paris...more leisure time for artists everywhere". The Marxist left has long championed the idea of the end of work. It is bewildering to contemplate that there may literally be no alternative to end of work.
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Sean Trane
Special Collaborator Prog Folk Joined: April 29 2004 Location: Heart of Europe Status: Offline Points: 20194 |
Posted: December 26 2016 at 03:14 | ||
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SteveG
Forum Senior Member Joined: April 11 2014 Location: Kyiv In Spirit Status: Offline Points: 20602 |
Posted: December 26 2016 at 06:24 | ||
A populist is supposed to represent ordinary people, not a distinct political or social group. To refer to Trump as such right at the moment is in error. We have to wait and see who's interests will actually be represented. |
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Gamemako
Forum Senior Member Joined: March 31 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1184 |
Posted: December 28 2016 at 22:00 | ||
Insofar as our society is concerned, it's terrifying. Modern society on the whole has utterly rejected the notion that people have a fundamental right to property, individually or collectively. Our entire human social fabric, right down to our personal identity, is derived from work. This won't merely be an economic shift, it will be a seismic cultural reorganization. In 20 years, we'll see massive economic upheaval, and I fear the remaining Boomers will be beside themselves with rage at the coming abandonment of their cultural ideals. In the meantime, I will do my part to speed the destruction of the world. Who loves TensorFlow? I love TensorFlow! Nothing like watching the world burn from corporate box seats. Edited by Gamemako - December 28 2016 at 22:01 |
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Hail Eris!
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JJLehto
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 05 2006 Location: Tallahassee, FL Status: Offline Points: 34550 |
Posted: January 01 2017 at 23:57 | ||
Romney no. Especially with a Republican congress. That's my real worry, there'll be far less restraint on these Tea Partiers, as well as the Republican mainstream which is of course Tea-lite Party lol But yeah McCain, sure. Kasich is indeed very sane and reasonable but also very dedicated to top down class warfare and failed economics, oh sorry I mean: Reaganomics ;) Even Jeb who has somehow ended up as one of the acceptable ones is scary to think about. Speaking of the GOP is licking its lips. They finally have what they've wanted, Congress with a Republican PotUS. Years of being held at bay by Obama is now gone, lets hope the Democrats manage to fight for as much as they can. Inequality, the environment, public health, education and healthcare are all in danger. Let's not fool ourselves, this new post 2008 GOP is very ideologically dedicated and those who aren't are forced to be or risk being booted. And despite his "I won't touch the big 3 programs" talk I uh....dont really believe Trump will stick to that.
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JJLehto
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 05 2006 Location: Tallahassee, FL Status: Offline Points: 34550 |
Posted: January 02 2017 at 00:03 | ||
Oh and don't forget the state level!! We got understandably caught up by the Prez and Congress but Republicans still dominate the state level, both governorships and state legislatures. This is bad news because the state level can have a major impact on both econ and especially social policy. Kind ol Kasich signed even more restrictive abortion laws (I believe he already turned OH into one the more anti choice states) with advocates claiming they are emboldened by trump. Ha and civil rights, the environment...and econ. All impactful at the state level. There will continue to be cuts (to education, state jobs/wages, infrastructure) and regressive tax hikes/business handouts given this GOP dominance.
Oh and voter disenfranchisement.
Edited by JJLehto - January 02 2017 at 00:07 |
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Atavachron
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: September 30 2006 Location: Pearland Status: Offline Points: 65152 |
Posted: January 02 2017 at 00:09 | ||
^ We still got Governor Moonbeam --
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"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought." -- John F. Kennedy
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JJLehto
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 05 2006 Location: Tallahassee, FL Status: Offline Points: 34550 |
Posted: January 02 2017 at 00:16 | ||
That's what has really blown my mind over the last 8 years: How far, and quickly, people can change. I mean demographic shifts happen slowly, so there must be more to the average Republican going from moderately anti government and willing to moderate to uncompromising tea party nihilist. States that locally would support moderate Dems (as well as Republicans) ot even conservatives that were at least reasonable are beyond the brink. I can only assume its a knee jerk reaction to Obama. A true liberal who's pushed some actual changes and the US itself has undergone large changes like with gay marriage. Add in some political pandering (and some sincerity) to the hate government always at any cost folk...and yeah. Guess this is just history. There's always a reactionary response to large changes.
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JJLehto
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 05 2006 Location: Tallahassee, FL Status: Offline Points: 34550 |
Posted: January 02 2017 at 00:29 | ||
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Atavachron
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: September 30 2006 Location: Pearland Status: Offline Points: 65152 |
Posted: January 02 2017 at 00:42 | ||
I've always thought it a badge of honor.
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"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought." -- John F. Kennedy
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JJLehto
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 05 2006 Location: Tallahassee, FL Status: Offline Points: 34550 |
Posted: January 02 2017 at 01:03 | ||
Edited by JJLehto - January 02 2017 at 01:06 |
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Atavachron
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: September 30 2006 Location: Pearland Status: Offline Points: 65152 |
Posted: January 02 2017 at 03:50 | ||
No it isn't fair or nuanced, or sophisticated. And what a comeback from his dreary first two terms, he's ushered Cal back from the edge. You can't argue with results, and that's all one can say.
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"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought." -- John F. Kennedy
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JJLehto
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 05 2006 Location: Tallahassee, FL Status: Offline Points: 34550 |
Posted: January 04 2017 at 12:35 | ||
Like I said, he's done a superb job as governor. I just dont know if his style/views would be appropriate for federal government because they are different beasts. He has indeed done the impossible: Gotten Cali's budget under control. Let's hope future governors don't f**k it up. Like ya know, Gray Davis or any Republican that sees a surplus and dreams of tax cuts or unfunded spending increases.
I recall he fought off Democrats who instantly sought big spending increases and he said no, moment a recession hits that'll put us back in the red and we need to keep cushion such an event, AND it would be bad to build people up just so 2 years later we have to take it away. That is some darn pragmatic, level headed, forward thinking. Jokes aside, maybe his Buddhism hooey lifestyle has paid off!
It's funny, he supposedly built up quite a rain day fund during his first stint as governor but Prop 13 drained it all. Which hey, good it was there to keep the state afloat, but that basically shot all his work dead. Must be awful to have to sit back and watch things out of your control ruin good that you've done. Poor Obama, can only imagine what he must be going through. |
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JJLehto
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 05 2006 Location: Tallahassee, FL Status: Offline Points: 34550 |
Posted: January 04 2017 at 12:49 | ||
Found this video a couple of days ago.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQuHSQXxsjM
Not strictly politics, but econ and politics always hold hands. Political economist Mark Blyth from Brown University gives a lecture about austerity, the Euro crisis and some brief history. It's super down to Earth, often shockingly blunt, and decently profane. He begins with "I wrote this book because I was really really pissed off with people with lots of money telling people with no money they have to pay sh*t back" And he's Scottish. This guy may be my new hero Really it's a great talk. Puts things realistically and without gimmicks, touches on lots of issues. This one is a tad shorter and focuses more on Euro banks, though has much of the same content. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S31VLG8Qi78
Edited by JJLehto - January 04 2017 at 12:54 |
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