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Joined: September 03 2005
Location: Olympus Mons
Status: Offline
Points: 15916
Posted: April 04 2020 at 13:33
I work on an island - yes, I cross a 900m bridge every day to work. Where we are is rather isolated compared to the more metropolitan areas, which tend to be the hot-spots. We have only had 2 cases here, one of which, a woman in her 70’s, returning from a cruise ship, sadly passed away in hospital. Most folks abide by the new measures, though you get the odd fool who thinks they’re immune.
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator / Retired Admin
Joined: August 11 2007
Location: Memphis
Status: Offline
Points: 10350
Posted: April 06 2020 at 14:56
^ Very sad, hopefully he will pull through.
Help the victims of the russian invasion: http://www.jazzmusicarchives.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=28523&PID=130446&title=various-ways-you-can-help-ukraine#130446
Joined: September 03 2005
Location: Olympus Mons
Status: Offline
Points: 15916
Posted: April 06 2020 at 15:55
One thing I’ve noticed - people aren’t taking this seriously enough. How is it the human race gets bored and complacent very quickly ?? Behaviour like this will likely ‘allow’ Covid19 to claim many more, otherwise, avoidable deaths. “ Silly human, silly human race “ - Jon Anderson
Joined: December 05 2007
Location: Germany
Status: Offline
Points: 2720
Posted: April 06 2020 at 16:03
The guy goes around boasting how he shakes everyone's hand in the hospital including possible Corona virus victims. The man's a cretin on the same level as beach revelers during lockdown.
Joined: June 14 2007
Location: Sea of Peas
Status: Online
Points: 48827
Posted: April 06 2020 at 16:19
It looks like there might be a possible sign of curve flattening for New York. Hopefully it's not a blip. Meanwhile, another drug, Ivermectin, seems to have had some success at killing Covid-19 in lab tests...
---------- i'm shopping for a new oil-cured sinus bag that's a happy bag of lettuce this car smells like cartilage nothing beats a good video about fractions
Joined: April 05 2006
Location: Vancouver, BC
Status: Offline
Points: 32812
Posted: April 06 2020 at 18:06
lazland wrote:
This evening, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been moved into intensive care, as his condition has worsened over the course of the day.
Whatever political or tactical arguments we have over Covid-19, I know that everyone will join me in wishing him and his family well.
Incredible times........
I was deeply sad to hear this, and I most definitely wish him and his family well. I'd be sad if it was most anyone, but I've had a soft spot for Boris Johnson for years.
Joined: September 03 2006
Location: .
Status: Offline
Points: 9869
Posted: April 07 2020 at 00:02
Tom Ozric wrote:
One thing I’ve noticed - people aren’t taking this seriously enough. How is it the human race gets bored and complacent very quickly ?? Behaviour like this will likely ‘allow’ Covid19 to claim many more, otherwise, avoidable deaths. “ Silly human, silly human race “ - Jon Anderson
Too many people are making the mistake of looking at the data as it stands today, which is not very helpful when it comes to covid as you have to look at the likely trends in the coming days and weeks instead.
This well educated, 'libertarian' dude on Quora has been committing this fallacy again and again. Not gonna dox but will quote some of his gems:
"As of today:
Europe: 18,724 deaths
United States: 1,246 deaths
How bruised is the European ego that it can ignore their countrymen dying at a rate 1500% higher than the United States… yet still time find to be profess the superiority of their healthcare over the United States."
This was on Mar 28 and since then, US deaths have caught up rapidly with Spain. While Europe still accounts for more deaths, the gap is no longer as large as it was then and is likely to be closed further and further as US is on an accelerating trend as of now.
And on the question of "how does it make you feel that US is no.1 in new coronavirus cases", he says:
"Fairly good. Compared to the alternative.
See how Iran and India have little activity? Do we think the laws of physics and chemistry are strangely different in those places?
It's not really a question of new cases. It's a question of knowledge about new cases.
And then, when you break it down to the new case rate, we're fairly middle of the pack. Look at the deaths in Europe? We have less than 10% what they do."
Again, this outlook rapidly grows outdated as the number of cases climb.
A lot of people still seem to believe in a matter of weeks we would have seen the last of this. Doesn't look to me as if it's going to be anywhere that easy and I fear a protracted battle that will further cripple the world economy. The alternative is allowing a Spanish flu like blood bath. Which with today's population could lead to millions of deaths.
IF every person were infected with covid, you could either go with the 1% death rate reflected in Germany with high testing. Assuming that the number of asymptomatic cases is still higher and we go for the best case scenario of a 0.1%.
At 0.1%, the number of worldwide deaths would be 7.8 million. At 1%, it would be 78 million.
What was that thing about influenza again?
WHO estimates deaths from influenza between 290000 to 650000 annually.
Joined: June 22 2004
Location: England
Status: Offline
Points: 16130
Posted: April 07 2020 at 02:15
lazland wrote:
This evening, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been moved into intensive care, as his condition has worsened over the course of the day.
Whatever political or tactical arguments we have over Covid-19, I know that everyone will join me in wishing him and his family well.
Incredible times........
Indeed, I do wish him a full recovery. It's a terrible time for him and his family. The whole thing is surreal, and the PM's condition goes to show how this virus can be a long drawn out affair for sufferers which can worsen over time, and take a bad turn. It's not necessarily just five days of a sore throat and temperature, then getting back on the horse. The close media coverage of his condition will hopefully underline the reality of this condition, as it can be for many patients.
Joined: September 03 2005
Location: Olympus Mons
Status: Offline
Points: 15916
Posted: April 07 2020 at 05:44
There aren’t a helluva lot of cases here in Australia, compared to U.S. and Europe, BUT, we haven’t hit ‘flu season’ yet. Will be interesting how this sh*t progresses here during the coming months. I fear the worst.
Sweden's response has indeed been the most puzzling one for me. Didn't take them for the sort who would experiment with Darwinism. The data is most definitely not encouraging though, again, those who look at figures up to a point of time rather than gauging the trend will pat themselves on their back for some more time.
Sweden's cases per million rate is low compared to US or the worst hit European countries of Spain, France and Italy but it's also much higher than Canada and Australia and only a whit short of UK. Considering the pandemic is in a more advanced stage in the UK than Sweden, it's going to get much worse for Sweden from here before it gets better.
Singapore had earlier experimented with keeping things running with extensive testing and employing Korea-like contact tracing. But, like Sweden, they allowed normal activities in the pre-covid sense to carry on, including keeping discotheques open. They were forced to impose a lockdown earlier this week due to an alarming spike in number of cases. This is likely where Sweden will have to head to. The worry is they may have left it for too late, the way Italy and Spain did.
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Covid-19 and the madness of crowds
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lazland wrote:
