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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2022 at 04:58
Originally posted by jamesbaldwin jamesbaldwin wrote:

Originally posted by suitkees suitkees wrote:

Originally posted by jamesbaldwin jamesbaldwin wrote:

<div style=": rgb248, 248, 252;">8) The original sin of this war is therefore the enlargement of NATO to the East...


I'm sorry Lorenzo, but continuing this statement seems to me blatantly ignoring who's at the origin of this war. I understand you don't like NATO, but NATO never attacked Russia. So please, explain me what should be a decent reason for Russia to attack Ukraine!


Kees, tszirmay quoted my starting 10 points (posted in the other thread), saying he disagreed with the eighth, and then asked me some question. I answered him and reposted my 10 starting points, that's all.

According to official news, the three reasons why Russia is waging this war are:
1) Request for a neutral Ukraine
2) Recognition of the Crimea
3) Recognition of the Independence of Donbass.

We don't know though

1) Whether Ukraine is willing to negotiate on these three points
2) If the US is advising Ukraine to resist (they have sent them many weapons) and not to negotiate
3) Is Russia really willing to negotiate just on the basis of these three points 
3) Whether Russia is continuing its war of destruction to achieve a situation of dominance that will persuade Ukraine to negotiate or to ask for the annexation of other areas.

My impression is that Zelenskij does not want to negotiate because Ukraine is unwilling to recognize Crimea as part of Russia and autonomous Donbass





Initially he was also demanding the retreat of NATO back to the 97 borders, so basically NATO getting out of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and maybe Poland (? - I'd have to Google) but in any case he seems to have quietened down on this particular demand - probably realizing it was never going to happen, regardless of his implied nuclear threats.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2022 at 03:33
Originally posted by jamesbaldwin jamesbaldwin wrote:

THE WORD "GENOCIDE"

Regarding the wird "genocide", I have already specified, from my first message, that since Ukraine is a country of 44 million people, for there to be a genocide there must be the killing of many millions of people.

[…]

As always, if we want to discuss some specific terms, it would be enough to agree honestly on the definition of these terms.

Your last sentence is true, but it is your definition that is the outlier. The definition as given by the ICC of genocide is applicable to Russia’s aggression in the UK. I think most people understand genocide in the way it is described by the ICC.

You may not consider what Russia to be doing is genocide, but I would be very surprised if your idea of genocide was anything but a minority view.

So yes, let’s come to an agreement on the definition of the term, but for sure your need to show a lot more movement than anyone else.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2022 at 03:14
THE WORD "GENOCIDE"

Regarding the wird "genocide", I have already specified, from my first message, that since Ukraine is a country of 44 million people, for there to be a genocide there must be the killing of many millions of people.

There is no absolute limit to the number of people killed for talking about genocide, so I never said that genocide "starts" if a million people are killed.
I also tried to add the example of the "Eskimos" to specify that if they were exterminated it would be a genocide of less than a million.

But empirically, the list of genocides typically includes crimes that have resulted in the killing of people on the order of millions.

King Of Loss mentions the genocide that Churchill's England was responsible for, namely that of the Bengal famine: it also affects a few million people, from 2 to 4 million, as far as I know.

Precisely because no genocide is taking place in Ukraine, Mr Zelinskji was criticized yesterday by many Israeli leaders: he compared what is happening in Ukraine to the genocide of Jews. About 6 million Jews were killed during the Shoah and today, despite the fact that the number oj jews has grown, there are just 14 million Jews worldwide. This gives the idea of ​​what genocide is. 

If we count the Ukrainian population, there are still 44 million after a month of war: no one estimates the people killed in Ukraine, up to now, to be more than a million, but not even more than 100,000. This gives the measure of why the word genocide is not appropriate.

Furthermore, a genocide must presuppose the will to annihilate a people, to make them disappear from the face of the earth. It is difficult to think that a genocide will occur if the author of the genocide agrees to humanitarian corridors.

Recently there has been talk of genocide for what happened (and continues to happen) in Syria. In that case, the Assad regime, thanks also to its military allies, including Putin's Russia, would have killed most of the 250,000 - 300,000 people who died during the endless Syrian civil war. Since the Syrians are about 20 million, in that case the death toll is more than 1 cent of the population (plus refugees), and if we also consider the devastation of entire cities, some speak of genocide. In this case, the word is used in a broad sense. 

The same is true for the Palestinians: if we consider the number of Palestinians killed by Israel from 1967 to the present, some speak of genocide in a broad sense. But the Israelis reply that the Palestinian population from 1967 to today has grown: of course, because Palestinians have a high reproductive rate, much higher than Israeli Jews, so if they had not been killed in many tens of thousands from 1967 to today, they would be in a much higher number than today. However, even in that case the word genocide can only be used in a broad sense.

As always, if we want to discuss some specific terms, it would be enough to agree honestly on the definition of these terms. 


Edited by jamesbaldwin - March 21 2022 at 03:29
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2022 at 21:48
Originally posted by tszirmay tszirmay wrote:

Originally posted by King of Loss King of Loss wrote:

Originally posted by tszirmay tszirmay wrote:

“THE GREATEST LESSON IN LIFE IS TO KNOW THAT EVEN FOOLS ARE RIGHT SOMETIMES.” (WINSTON CHURCHILL) I will add :They can be also on the LEFT


I hate to be a contrarian, but Winston Churchill was responsible for one of the worst genocides of the 20th century.

That has no bearing on the quote.......You can start a Churchill genocides thread if you wish.....This is specific to this thread. 

I don't know..... but people in this thread are mentioning genocide and Putin as Hitler. I felt like it was inappropriate to use a Churchill quote....
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2022 at 21:06
Originally posted by jamesbaldwin jamesbaldwin wrote:

Originally posted by suitkees suitkees wrote:

Originally posted by jamesbaldwin jamesbaldwin wrote:

8) The original sin of this war is therefore the enlargement of NATO to the East...

I'm sorry Lorenzo, but continuing this statement seems to me blatantly ignoring who's at the origin of this war. I understand you don't like NATO, but NATO never attacked Russia. So please, explain me what should be a decent reason for Russia to attack Ukraine!

Kees, tszirmay quoted my starting 10 points (posted in the other thread), saying he disagreed with the eighth, and then asked me some question. I answered him and reposted my 10 starting points, that's all.

According to official news, the three reasons why Russia is waging this war are:
1) Request for a neutral Ukraine
2) Recognition of the Crimea
3) Recognition of the Independence of Donbass.

We don't know though

1) Whether Ukraine is willing to negotiate on these three points
2) If the US is advising Ukraine to resist (they have sent them many weapons) and not to negotiate
3) Is Russia really willing to negotiate just on the basis of these three points 
3) Whether Russia is continuing its war of destruction to achieve a situation of dominance that will persuade Ukraine to negotiate or to ask for the annexation of other areas.

My impression is that Zelenskij does not want to negotiate because Ukraine is unwilling to recognize Crimea as part of Russia and autonomous Donbass



Mr.Putin just stated for the record that only TOTAL SURRENDER would be acceptable to him, adding the words "or else" . I guess he is not bullying , just being pragmatic in the face of NATO aggression.Confused
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2022 at 21:04
Originally posted by King of Loss King of Loss wrote:

Originally posted by tszirmay tszirmay wrote:

“THE GREATEST LESSON IN LIFE IS TO KNOW THAT EVEN FOOLS ARE RIGHT SOMETIMES.” (WINSTON CHURCHILL) I will add :They can be also on the LEFT


I hate to be a contrarian, but Winston Churchill was responsible for one of the worst genocides of the 20th century.

That has no bearing on the quote.......You can start a Churchill genocides thread if you wish.....This is specific to this thread. 


Edited by tszirmay - March 20 2022 at 21:10
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2022 at 21:00
Originally posted by tszirmay tszirmay wrote:

“THE GREATEST LESSON IN LIFE IS TO KNOW THAT EVEN FOOLS ARE RIGHT SOMETIMES.” (WINSTON CHURCHILL) I will add :They can be also on the LEFT

 


I hate to be a contrarian, but Winston Churchill was responsible for one of the worst genocides of the 20th century.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2022 at 20:40
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=330515278902132 

The speed at which she is bundled off is faster than the Kinzhal ! Its a free speech trap &amp;#9785;&amp;#65039;
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2022 at 17:33
Originally posted by suitkees suitkees wrote:

Originally posted by jamesbaldwin jamesbaldwin wrote:

8) The original sin of this war is therefore the enlargement of NATO to the East...

I'm sorry Lorenzo, but continuing this statement seems to me blatantly ignoring who's at the origin of this war. I understand you don't like NATO, but NATO never attacked Russia. So please, explain me what should be a decent reason for Russia to attack Ukraine!

Kees, tszirmay quoted my starting 10 points (posted in the other thread), saying he disagreed with the eighth, and then asked me some question. I answered him and reposted my 10 starting points, that's all.

According to official news, the three reasons why Russia is waging this war are:
1) Request for a neutral Ukraine
2) Recognition of the Crimea
3) Recognition of the Independence of Donbass.

We don't know though

1) Whether Ukraine is willing to negotiate on these three points
2) If the US is advising Ukraine to resist (they have sent them many weapons) and not to negotiate
3) Is Russia really willing to negotiate just on the basis of these three points 
3) Whether Russia is continuing its war of destruction to achieve a situation of dominance that will persuade Ukraine to negotiate or to ask for the annexation of other areas.

My impression is that Zelenskij does not want to negotiate because Ukraine is unwilling to recognize Crimea as part of Russia and autonomous Donbass




Edited by jamesbaldwin - March 20 2022 at 17:34
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2022 at 15:29
Originally posted by suitkees suitkees wrote:

Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:


I thought photos of high ranking Ukrainian officials leaving the Ukraine with 30 million dollars seemed relative.  That said, I understand your point...I will delete the photos. 

Thank you, Cindy. I don't think that putting forward this kind of possible misconducts (which are typically either staged or brought forward to discredit one party, but are seldomly part of the bigger picture) are contributing to the discussion here. In any war there are misconducts, but that should not blind us about the general implications of the war. Both sides will communicate about details that are either false or just insignificant regarding the bigger issues at hand. Both sides will try to discredit the other. Let's try not to fall into those traps. And let's try to keep us to verified information instead of to rumors and calumny.
And yes, that means that we should trust certain media sources more than others. Some of those might not align with your/mine ideas, but it is up to us to verify through multiple, and possibly contradicting sources.

Especially post mortem, when the truth (or history: aka analyzing BOTH sides arguments and letting the reader decide) surfaces and appropriate action can be taken to get the correct numbers . 


Edited by tszirmay - March 20 2022 at 15:29
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2022 at 15:25
Originally posted by nick_h_nz nick_h_nz wrote:

Originally posted by tszirmay tszirmay wrote:

Originally posted by nick_h_nz nick_h_nz wrote:

Originally posted by tszirmay tszirmay wrote:

The Azov Battalion has 900 members , not much of a state , somewhat smaller than San Marino, Liechtenstein or Andorra. We are talking Ukraine as per the thread title. 
Before someone says it, 900 is the lowest approximation for me membership of the Azov Battalion, and the highest approximation I’ve seen is 2,500. Regardless, before Russia upped the ante in their aggressive invasion and occupation of Ukraine (ongoing since 2014j, that 900-2500 was clearly a minority in the more than 200,000 troops that Ukraine had. That 200,000 is now an outdated figure, as with martial law and the volunteering of so many citizens, Ukraine’s defensive force has grown. Already a small percentage of Ukraine’s total military force, the scale and influence of the Azov is now even more over-stated than it previously was.

That’s not to suggest that it should exist, as there is never a place for Nazis. But to suggest that neo-Nazis form a majority of Ukraine’s military, let alone it’s population, is plainly wrong. Let alone the fact that Zelenskyy is a Jew, with clearly centrist views and policies, and is hardly going to agree with the extreme right wing views of the Azov.

[EDIT] The existence of the Azov is problematic, and has been recognised as such from within Ukraine. This is a quote from 2020 from a Ukrainian journalist:

“The Azov movement has long been a symbol of the far-right in Ukraine. It has risen to prominence over the past six years due to its role in the ongoing war against Russia, and has achieved levels of mainstream media exposure far in excess of the group’s minimal electoral support. This is not only a domestic issue for Ukraine. The far-right in general, and their apparent impunity, have significantly damaged Ukraine’s international reputation and left the country vulnerable to hostile narratives exaggerating the role of extremist groups in Ukraine. With awareness of right-wing terrorism now growing globally, the potential threat posed by the Ukrainian far-right beyond the borders of the country is attracting increasing attention.“

Even the name Azov Battalion is somewhat disengenuous as it confers a respectability they don’t really have. They initially called themselves a movement, then a regiment, and now a battalion, but they pretty much remain a bunch of hard-core, right wing hooligans that have taken their aggression away from football stadia and put it against Russians. Because white supremacists are often violent extremists, they’ve proved effective against the Russians, and for this reason, and this reason alone, they were integrated into the National Guard. Was that a mistake? Probably so, but the reasoning behind it is understandable. I don’t for the moment believe they have ever been intended to be a permanent part of the Ukrainian military, but as a temporary measure against Russian aggression, they have done the job. It’s a case of the ends justifying the means, I guess. Whether or not we agree that these means are justifiable is definitely debatable. And, as per the above quote, has been debated within Ukraine.


I am perfectly aware of the 2500-900 number, but if Russia's self-avowed mission is to eradicate the Ukrainian Nazis (by using Russian Nazis BTW) thus precisely targeting said battalion , it could be presumed that the Azov troops have suffered immense losses. Regardless, even 2000 doesn't not make a nation of 44 million Nazis. The same crap happened in Yugoslavia, on all sides.... 

I was agreeing with you, and pre-emptively defending you, because someone like Cindy could pounce on your figure of 900 (rather than 900-2500) and accuse you of lying or falsifying facts - because that’s the sort of crap she pulls. (The same way she has twisted Mira’s words.)

Hopefully the Azov have suffered immense losses. Hopefully they will no longer be recognised, nor counted as part of the National Guard, once this war is over. But let’s face it, Russia is hardly sticking to their self-avowed mission, or they’d not be shelling schools, hospitals, and places of refuge such as theatres and monasteries.

This is war. This is genocide. No matter how imperfect Ukraine may have been / may be, it and it’s people do not deserve this war. I stand with Ukraine.

Lorenzo gets upset with the use of the word " genocide" , as for his definition, it must entail a minimum of 1 million and up to multiple millionS of corpses (which according to Cindy, are mostly photoshopped). Now this would be interesting only if you had a nation/race/ tribe /society of , say 800,000. By killing them all to the very last one , it would mean it is still not genocide . Confused 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2022 at 15:21
Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:


I thought photos of high ranking Ukrainian officials leaving the Ukraine with 30 million dollars seemed relative.  That said, I understand your point...I will delete the photos. 

Thank you, Cindy. I don't think that putting forward this kind of possible misconducts (which are typically either staged or brought forward to discredit one party, but are seldomly part of the bigger picture) are contributing to the discussion here. In any war there are misconducts, but that should not blind us about the general implications of the war. Both sides will communicate about details that are either false or just insignificant regarding the bigger issues at hand. Both sides will try to discredit the other. Let's try not to fall into those traps. And let's try to keep us to verified information instead of to rumors and calumny.
And yes, that means that we should trust certain media sources more than others. Some of those might not align with your/mine ideas, but it is up to us to verify through multiple, and possibly contradicting sources.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2022 at 14:58

“THE GREATEST LESSON IN LIFE IS TO KNOW THAT EVEN FOOLS ARE RIGHT SOMETIMES.” (WINSTON CHURCHILL) I will add :They can be also on the LEFT

 



Edited by tszirmay - March 20 2022 at 20:45
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2022 at 14:39
^ I really don't know what to think of you anymore, Cindy, but you seem to me so obtuse and dug into a parallel universe that a decent discussion with you seems impossible. What you bring forward now has nothing to do with the current thread's discussion, so, please, be decent, and either stay on topic, or start your own thread or just stay silent.



Edited by suitkees - March 20 2022 at 16:18

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2022 at 14:23
Originally posted by suitkees suitkees wrote:

^ I really don't know what to think of you anymore, Cindy, but you seem to me so obtuse and dug into a parallel universe that a decent discussion with you seems impossible. What you bring forward now has nothing to do with the current thread's discussion, so, please, be decent, and either stay on topic, or start your own thread or just stay silent.

I thought photos of high ranking Ukrainian officials leaving the Ukraine with 30 million dollars seemed relative.  That said, I will delete the photos. 


Edited by omphaloskepsis - March 20 2022 at 15:13
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2022 at 14:08
Originally posted by jamesbaldwin jamesbaldwin wrote:

8) The original sin of this war is therefore the enlargement of NATO to the East...

I'm sorry Lorenzo, but continuing this statement seems to me blatantly ignoring who's at the origin of this war. I understand you don't like NATO, but NATO never attacked Russia. So please, explain me what should be a decent reason for Russia to attack Ukraine!

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2022 at 13:46
1) Putin invaded Ukraine with the intention of annexing it to Russia. The invasion of a sovereign state is always a crime, we must condemned it, regardless of the reasons. More devastating this invasion will be in terms of destruction and deaths, Greater will be the crimes to be blamed on Putin. And unfortunately Putin's crimes are growing day by day.

Then Putin needs to be put down like any rabid dog, to end the poor animal's paranoid and nightmarish existence, but more importantly to keep the neighborhood safe.

2) Any comparison with Hitler invading Poland, or with the USSR invading Czechoslovakia / Hungary etc. it does not make sense.

It is a more plausible argument to say Putin is Stalin, except with less hair (Stalin was a tiny man as well). Stalin thought nothing of starving 4 million Ukrainians to death, and Putin thinks nothing of bombing schools and hospitals in Ukraine. And yes, it makes perfect sense in historical context.

3) Any historical category of the past (fascist / Nazi / communist) applied to Russia or Ukraine makes no sense. However, Russia and Ukraine are two very nationalist States that have nothing to do with Lenin's communism.

Putin is KGB all the way, he misses the old USSR, which had nothing to do with communism but rather the continuation of an authoritarian state where only the elites profited. Except now there isn't the slightest pretense of communism or Soviet socialism, but a blatant and corrupt money grab by Putin and his toadies. 

4) Any reference to whether Russia or Ukraine is democratic or not makes no sense. 

Russia does not have free elections, and hasn't since Putin came to power. The 2019 Ukraine presidential election featured 39 candidates. And not one of them was poisoned with uranium -- a regular feature of Russian elections under Putin.  

5) Russia's reasons are to be found in the expansion of NATO to the East, which has endangered its security. The coup d'état carried out in Ukraine in an anti-Russian sense is also part of Putin's reasons. Last but not least, the fact that there are many Russians in Ukraine. These reasons do not justify the war or Putin's crimes, but serve to understand the root causes, which cannot be traced back to Putin's psychological analyzes.

Only a Russian shill would refer to it as a "coup d'état", The world and Ukrainians saw it as a popular revolution against a Russian puppet who abused power and who was, generally speaking, a corrupt douche-bag beholden only to Putin to remain in power. The people of Ukraine booted him out. The people. The majority. The majority (by a wide margin) also wants to be part of the EU, not a Russian puppet state. 

6) Putin's reasons correspond to the sins of the West, in particular of the USA, which are ALMOST as big as Putin's. I'm talking about political faults, not crimes. If Biden will continue to try to expand NATO at East or foment war, the US's faults will be greater.

Stop it. Putin's wants power for Putin. This is all about Putin, not the interests of the Russian people, who would be far better off with the little corporal in a grave. And your blatant hatred of the U.S. is beyond annoying.

7) There are economic and political reasons why the US want an Europe united with the Eastern States in NATO: this enlarged Europe will never be a political subject and will be disadvantaged economically by a break with Russia.

Ask just about any Eastern State that left the USSR and the Russian orbit if they are better off now in the European Union or under Moscow's repression and brutality. Most are thriving more now than at any time since before WWII. I'm sure the majority of Ukrainians certainly want nothing further to do with that murderous regime. 

You know where folks are the most miserable? In Russia. In every poll, Russians bemoan the lack of civil liberties, of free speech, of regular elections, of free opposition parties, of free religion, of fair judiciary, of free internet. Countries tied to Russia are the ones who are economically disadvantaged, backwards, uneducated, misogynistic and technologically-stunted, as are the Russians themselves.

8) The original sin of this war is therefore the enlargement of NATO to the East, or rather the enduring existence of NATO with the Cold War and the USSR over. NATO is a military alliance that plans to make wars. Putting American missiles in Ukraine, as would happen with Ukraine's entry into NATO, is as if Mexico allied itself with Russia, Syria and Iran and placed missiles aimed at the US cities: what would the US do? We know what they would do, they would not accept this possibility, which is reminiscent of the Cuban missile crisis. Ukraine, if Ukraine was governed wisely, it would have sought neutrality. Europe's ineptitude is 1) the unwillingness to get out of NATO or the American yoke 2) the unwillingness to get a political subject.

The only original sin is Putin doing away with free elections in Russia and growing into a post-KGB tyrant. Putin changed the Russian constitution so he can remain in power until 2036 (the next constitutional change, I am sure, will forbid death from visiting Vlad's bed).  If Putin were gone, this would not be an issue. 

Putin, not the Russian people, is to blame for this mess. Eliminate Putin, and Russia can become a responsible, mature European country, and regular Russians can share in the vast resources of the country, and not just Putin's oligarch cronies. The only yoke is the one Putin uses interchangeably with his horse and humans under his power. 

9) The Ukrainian people, but also the whole of Europe and Russia's s people will be the victims of this war. Americans will still benefit from it. The UN should by now be considered an obsolete organization, unable to maintain the conditions for which it was born.

The Russian people will suffer only as long as Putin is dictator. Ukraine will suffer only as long as Putin is dictator. Europe will only suffer as long as Putin is dictator. Eastern European countries bordering Russia will suffer only as long as Putin is dictator. Break Putin economically and his inner circle will become a noose. 

And bravo to the Ukraine people for killing the fifth Russian general in the past few weeks. Between the brain drain (more of a stampede, really) of intelligent Russians fleeing Putin's lunacy, the political drain as paranoid Putin eliminates hundred of apparatchiks and eunuchs from office for looking suspicious, and the drain on the military, who look more and more inept and less like a super power every day, Russia will implode. Putin has fulfilled his own prophesy.

10) If I were a politician of the European Parliamento or an American politician, I would ask for a meeting with Putin in the neutral zone in order to find an agreement on the basis of the exchange:
- immediate withdrawal from Ukraine
- pact not to enlarge NATO to the east (Ukraine, Finland, Sweden).
The fate of the Ukrainian areas with a Russian majority needs to be discussed.
Unfortunately, no Western politician is doing this, on the contrary, the European Union has accepted Ukraine's candidacy within the EU just as there is a war, and some European states are sending weapons to Ukraine. The US instead invited Sweden and Finland to attend a NATO meeting. In short, the West is doing everything wrong, it is blowing on the fire.

If you were a politician, you'd be a sycophantic Putin lackey, and would have a very short tenure in office -- unless of course you sold your country to the Russians for "peace in our time". Ukraine is a sovereign state and should be allowed to associate with whomever it wishes, otherwise it is Hungary or Czechoslovakia from a previous era (and, again, the historical context you choose to blithely ignore is right there). Sweden and Finland should be rightly worried about Putin's intentions because the man is an inveterate liar, a bully, a murderer and a sadist.  

Either you are gullible or suffer from battered-wife syndrome and keep returning to the brute who beat you. 
...a vigorous circular motion hitherto unknown to the people of this area, but destined
to take the place of the mud shark in your mythology...
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2022 at 11:28
Originally posted by tszirmay tszirmay wrote:

 

When I first responded to you on that other thread, I clearly remember that I gave you massive credit for having valid points on your long list , ONLY objecting to your #8 relating to NATO , which, having some slight expertise on the matter, I challenged your facts, namely times , locations and dates. Your obvious passion, though somewhat obsessive, is perfectly admired by all, as debate is the panacea for the mind. The fact that neither you or I have given an inch is the reality. You trust your sources , I trust mine. I have been a non-violent military historian since the age of 12, my thesis at 19 was on the NSDAP. My argument was and still is , that there is little difference structurally between Nazism and Leninism/Stalinism. War solves NOTHING.  
I wanted to ask you this question since the moment you state your clear non-aligned pacifism, and this question is devoid of any baiting, pre-arranged countermove or agenda whatsoever. In fact, I won't even respond . Serious question: If Russian tanks would be in Milano, going down Corso Vittorio Emanuele II and blasting buildings indiscriminately while shooting at the Carabinieri, what would you do, or say? How would you react? 

Thomas,

If you ask me what, realistically, would happen, you know the answer: since Italy is a member of NATO, the third world war would break out. In fact, the members of NATO consider the aggression to one of its states as an aggression to all the states of the alliance.

If you ask me what I would do if Italy were neutral, there are two possibilities, the same as Ukraine has:

1) If Italy has a chance to repel the invasion, Italy has every right to make war on the invaders. In that case, since I refused to do military service (in my time it was mandatory but you could make a conscientious objection and they sent you to do socially useful jobs: I worked in a center for disabled children for a year), I could be called to fight but in unarmed roles, since having made the "conscientious objection" I cannot use weapons even in wartime, this established the law.

2) If Italy has no chance of repelling the invasion, the best thing would be to negotiate surrender as soon as possible. And then, I hope that Italy would organize a nonviolent resistance to the aggressor with civil disobedience. In any case, I would not invoke the entry of NATO on the scene to defend us, with the real risk of a third world war on Italian soil.

However, I don't think Russia invaded Ukraine with the intention of annexing it (in my first message I have been inaccurate on this point).


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My first message about this war:

This is my opinion:

1) Putin invaded Ukraine with the intention of annexing it to Russia. The invasion of a sovereign state is always a crime, we must condemned it, regardless of the reasons. More devastating this invasion will be in terms of destruction and deaths, Greater will be the crimes to be blamed on Putin. And unfortunately Putin's crimes are growing day by day.
2) Any comparison with Hitler invading Poland, or with the USSR invading Czechoslovakia / Hungary etc. it does not make sense.
3) Any historical category of the past (fascist / Nazi / communist) applied to Russia or Ukraine makes no sense. However, Russia and Ukraine are two very nationalist States that have nothing to do with Lenin's communism.
4) Any reference to whether Russia or Ukraine is democratic or not makes no sense.
5) Russia's reasons are to be found in the expansion of NATO to the East, which has endangered its security. The coup d'état carried out in Ukraine in an anti-Russian sense is also part of Putin's reasons. Last but not least, the fact that there are many Russians in Ukraine. These reasons do not justify the war or Putin's crimes, but serve to understand the root causes, which cannot be traced back to Putin's psychological analyzes.
6) Putin's reasons correspond to the sins of the West, in particular of the USA, which are ALMOST as big as Putin's. I'm talking about political faults, not crimes. If Biden will continue to try to expand NATO at East or foment war, the US's faults will be greater.
7) There are economic and political reasons why the US want an Europe united with the Eastern States in NATO: this enlarged Europe will never be a political subject and will be disadvantaged economically by a break with Russia.
8) The original sin of this war is therefore the enlargement of NATO to the East, or rather the enduring existence of NATO with the Cold War and the USSR over. NATO is a military alliance that plans to make wars. Putting American missiles in Ukraine, as would happen with Ukraine's entry into NATO, is as if Mexico allied itself with Russia, Syria and Iran and placed missiles aimed at the US cities: what would the US do? We know what they would do, they would not accept this possibility, which is reminiscent of the Cuban missile crisis. Ukraine, if Ukraine was governed wisely, it would have sought neutrality. Europe's ineptitude is 1) the unwillingness to get out of NATO or the American yoke 2) the unwillingness to get a political subject.
9) The Ukrainian people, but also the whole of Europe and Russia's s people will be the victims of this war. Americans will still benefit from it. The UN should by now be considered an obsolete organization, unable to maintain the conditions for which it was born.
10) If I were a politician of the European Parliamento or an American politician, I would ask for a meeting with Putin in the neutral zone in order to find an agreement on the basis of the exchange:
- immediate withdrawal from Ukraine
- pact not to enlarge NATO to the east (Ukraine, Finland, Sweden).
The fate of the Ukrainian areas with a Russian majority needs to be discussed.
Unfortunately, no Western politician is doing this, on the contrary, the European Union has accepted Ukraine's candidacy within the EU just as there is a war, and some European states are sending weapons to Ukraine. The US instead invited Sweden and Finland to attend a NATO meeting. In short, the West is doing everything wrong, it is blowing on the fire.


Edited by jamesbaldwin - March 20 2022 at 12:05
Amos Goldberg (professor of Genocide Studies at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem): Yes, it's genocide. It's so difficult and painful to admit it, but we can no longer avoid this conclusion.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2022 at 11:28
Originally posted by jamesbaldwin jamesbaldwin wrote:

When I write "start disarmament, I mean, The UE should starts disarmament and the Nato should negotiate with Putin for a disarmament in the East of Europe.

Before this present moment, I would have agreed with you. At the present moment, I don't think this is the way we should go now. And as long as Putin is leading Russia, I'd say we should rather go the opposite way.


Edited by suitkees - March 20 2022 at 11:30

The razamataz is a pain in the bum
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2022 at 11:21
Originally posted by suitkees suitkees wrote:

Originally posted by jamesbaldwin jamesbaldwin wrote:

to stop it, you have to negotiate as soon as possible, be willing to give something up and, instead of increasing military spending (which will favor other wars), start disarmament.

Yes to disarmament, but what to give up? Disarmament is typically a matter of negotiation. In my humble opinion, Putin has excluded himself to be a reliable partner for negotiations. And give up something sounds very much like selling your soul to the devil in the present circumstances. For what in return? Not much to expect from Putin that could be considered a decent proposition, at the moment.
For me it is rather clear that Putin is just stalling every possible negotiation in order to advance his deathly and unacceptable plans.

These are no simple matters, but morally speaking I think we - the West - should go at it and have that 3rd World War, because Putin is trying to impose a new World Order that goes against everything humanist. I cannot accept that.
That said, strategically, I'm not sure if we should go that way (involve NATO and thus start WW3). That's a real dilemma, and personally I'm not set at that, yet.  I really don't know...

I'd say we should be prepared for WW3 but for sure I don't want to have it. I still hope that deterrence works to some extent. The aim of the US/NATO supporting Taiwan is to not have China invading. It's not the aim to have the war when they invade. The aim of supporting Ukraine is to make the whole enterprise so painful for the Russians that they ultimately may accept a negotiated solution that is just about acceptable (if not "good") for anyone. The aim of having NATO membership and military in Estonia, Poland, Romania... is to deter Putin from going there. I hope that he won't, whereas I do think the probability for WW3 to happen is much larger if NATO intervenes directly in Ukraine (such as having a no fly zone), as Putin can simply not afford to not win anything from the Ukraine war, so he needs to have something (like Crimea and non-NATO membership of Ukraine). If he doesn't win that he might just start WW3 out of desperation. But I still hope (of course I don't know for sure) that he won't start another adventure with even bigger probability of going wrong than the current one after the current one is hopefully ended at some point.
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