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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2019 at 17:49
The election will probably come down to Florida, Ohio, Michigan Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Someone who only takes the coasts will not be able to win, it takes some of that north mid-west to deliver a winner.

And yes, Texas and Georgia may be next. I know Texas very well and it is far different from Louisiana, Oklahoma, Arkansas and the rest of the south. If anything, Texas is more similar to California.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2019 at 17:28
and yeah John.. watch Sherrod. He is my dark horse in that race.. and considering the bloodbath that will take place among the front runners..  I think that makes him in fact.. the betting favorite to be our next President.  

That and his unique ability to appeal both to the left and center.. and the working classes...  even more than Biden.. he is far more Trump's worst nightmare.  He gets landsllid if facing him... he loses all of the rust belt..  Florida.. and yes.. perhaps Texas and some of the upper midwest considering how Trump's trade war is really starting to hurt.  Never mind that idiot above.. see he crawled out from his rock... would be the biggest electoral landslide since 84. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2019 at 17:17
Originally posted by Easy Money Easy Money wrote:

Someone worth checking out for the 2020 election, Sherrod Brown, this is the person who could get the working people's vote back from t-rump. He won re-election in Ohio during the same election that saw t-rump carry the state.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/as-unions-awaken-to-renewed-political-clout-sherrod-brown-hopes-to-benefit-100000104.html

also noted as as long predicted... looks like Texas will be in play in 2020...Beto 2018 obviously NOT a blip on the radar.. note even HRC cut the Obama 2012 losing deficit in half in 2016...  that can be, and you heard it here first, will be the death nell of the Republican Party. See California for the what the demographic changes and how badly the Republican Party have played them for what is coming for Texas.

 They lose it, and they are, the Republicans lose any realistic path to the White House and become a de facto rump regional party. until they blow up the party that is.. and stop being the Republican Party. Best do it before a 3rd party comes and takes their place at the 2 party table. One that has national appeal, broad appeal, not just reliance on playing White Identity bigoted politics of fear.


Edited by micky - March 06 2019 at 17:18
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2019 at 12:09
even if the democrats would nominate an old white man, that would be the biggest blowout election in decades (in Trump's favor)
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2019 at 10:59
Someone worth checking out for the 2020 election, Sherrod Brown, this is the person who could get the working people's vote back from t-rump. He won re-election in Ohio during the same election that saw t-rump carry the state.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/as-unions-awaken-to-renewed-political-clout-sherrod-brown-hopes-to-benefit-100000104.html

Edited by Easy Money - March 06 2019 at 11:01
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 28 2019 at 01:33
Atavachron: I've been thinking about what you said, and yes, I'm afraid I have to admit that you've got a point
there, although what you describe was never my intention.

My problem seems to be that my observations about what's going on in the USA has me wildly swinging
between anger and amusement. I think that when those two intersect, I tend to come across the way you
describe. That's regrettable and I apologize to everyone, and I'll do my best to avoid that in future.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2019 at 19:20
why you ask? Easy 

this was as I said. .. much to to do about nothing. It was political theater.. and was nothing that wasn't already known already especially taken into account what is known about the DOJ and their 'person of interest' and soon to be indicted President of the United States.

this was all about the show.. politics...  what really matters however... is the legal end of this.  The Democrats are not going to impeach him.. that is akin to taking a baseball bat to a baby seal alone out of the ice. Sure it might be a mercy .. but god help you once the leftists hear of it.  Same with Trump.. he is dead man walking.. why impeach him and do him a favor and make it politcal and politize it.. when the very reaspected and apolitical DOJ.. whom only idiot Trump supporters think is partisan or political will do hard work for them at zero poltical cost other than offending a few radical lefties who want to impeach Trump now.. Pelosi is too smart to let that happen. But this was a show that was too good to pass up... 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2019 at 19:19
It will always amaze me that Trump accepted the nomination, apparently never expecting for him, his shady
associates, and his business dealings to be probed. Had he been sensible, he'd have gone and hidden under a
blanket until it all blows over. What a dunce!
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2019 at 19:12
Darkelf: I agree, but why on earth bother to bring in Cohen to testify about something Muller can prove anytime?
Cohen's testimony just muddies the waters. They'd have been better off without him.


Edited by npjnpj - February 27 2019 at 19:14
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2019 at 19:10
really nothing surprising came of his testimony I must say.  The vast majority, the lies, payoffs, att that jazz have been long suspected and indirectly already confirmed the the DOJ.  As we talked about before.. you don't go after the President of the United States based on the word of one person.. they obviously have hard evidence and multiple sources confirming what Cohen told them.  What we heard today is proably only the tip of the iceburg for you best believe he was directed what NOT to say as it would affect an ongoing case.

however I must say the most interesting tidbit of what he did say is confirmed what you read here.. and others strongly suspected.

He never intended to be President.. this was all a big PR/branding stunt that got out of his control.. or his ego's ability to say.. whoa...  thus the poor sh*t and is almost easy to feel sorry for him, for he is going to lose everything out of this..  found it impossible to come clean and has built years of lies and lies for as Cohen so nailed.. he was never supposed to win...  thus all of this would be soon forgottten and never followed up upon.

umm hmmm

see Webster entry for Catastrphophic Success (© Micky 2016) and you will find a picture of of Trump in a prison jumpsuit.. but don't forget the subnote b to see (Repubican Party (1854 - 2032)

what a disaster he has been for that party.. though it couldn't have happened to worse group of people haha
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2019 at 19:09
Originally posted by npjnpj npjnpj wrote:

Seriously guys, what's going on? I seem to be regarded by some people as belonging to the Trump supporter
camp for some reason I can't fathom. My view is, and has been for years now that Trump should be held
accountable and convicted as soon as possible. He's a terrible person, as are the members of his administration,
and should be locked away and the key melted down. I've been quite clear about that. So what did I say to
upset people? I'm puzzled and I'd really like to  know.

I never pegged you as a Trump supporter.   My reaction to you (in the past) was about my dislike of reactionary negativity.   I don't take well to the "How can you morons have elected a Donald Trump-- You're doomed!" kind of stuff.   Strikes me as useless and trollish.   But don't mind me, you're more than welcome to post.   You've got balls, I'll say that.


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2019 at 19:04
Originally posted by npjnpj npjnpj wrote:

Darkelf: It seems you misunderstood me. I was expressing my doubt about the validity of anything Michael
Cohen says, not because I personally doubt his words, but because if you want to have a credible witness
against Donald Trump, you'd have to do better than having Cohen testify.

The problem is that Cohen is a proven liar, and just because it this point of time he happens to say what I (or
possibly we) believe to be the truth, I can't just declare a breakpoint and say: OK, this is what I want to hear,
so it's valid and believable. Heaven knows what he might say if, for instance, Trump would start dangling
pardons about again.

If we're unlucky, this might even backfire by having the republicans hold up his testimony as 'proof' that a liar
is now testifying against Trump, and therefore Trump must be innocent.

As for his conviction: it is possible for Cohen to have his sentence reduced through appeal to the judge, if he
can present himself as a reliable, credible, and helpful witness even after his conviction. That's quite an
incentive to roll over and play the good boy.

I understand where you're coming from. But let's look at who was watching the Congressional hearing. It wasn't just the House Reps. Bob Mueller's office was tuned in, or one of the attorneys was sitting there recording the whole thing. You don't think Mueller isn't already completely aware of everything Cohen was testifying about?

In November, Cohen made a plea deal with Mueller for lying to Congress about efforts to build a Trump Tower in Moscow throughout the 2016 election cycle. I'm certain that in the multiple several hour interviews Cohen had with Mueller's staff that every one of his assertions was fact checked.

The Trump Tower issue has been proven to have happened by more than one source and by actual physical evidence. But Trump lied in tweets and during the campaign and while president. Many times. Over and over again. In print and in person. How many times have you heard the words "I have no business with Russia" come out of his mouth? And it was an incontrovertible lie.

So, if Trump lied so blatantly about dealings with Russia, he certainly lied about paying off a porn star during the election. The only time Trump tells the truth is when he just blurts stuff out like firing Comey over "that Rusher thing". 

Let's look at the number of Trump associates guilty of lying:
Manafort
Flynn
Papadoplous
Gates
van der Zwaan
Cohen
and Stone currently in court.

Trump hires liars. A person doesn't congregate with people who don't reflect their values, or lack thereof. It is clear Trump is a sociopath and narcissist. No conscience. No ethics or morality except for ones of convenience (I mean, really, do you think Trump actually cares about abortions? Or coal miners? Or a wall?).




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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2019 at 19:00
Seriously guys, what's going on? I seem to be regarded by some people as belonging to the Trump supporter
camp for some reason I can't fathom. My view is, and has been for years now that Trump should be held
accountable and convicted as soon as possible. He's a terrible person, as are the members of his administration,
and should be locked away and the key melted down. I've been quite clear about that. So what did I say to
upset people? I'm puzzled and I'd really like to  know.


Edited by npjnpj - February 27 2019 at 19:01
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2019 at 18:50
ehhh... much to do about nothing and you worry far too much about Njpbaby...  the court of public opinion is not Trump's greatest problem... his political problems... are not his greatest problem.

He is facing jail time, for it isn't the democrats after him..  it is the southern NY branch of the DOJ.. who cut their teeth going after the mob, organized crime and very rich and well connected.

Trump is toast.. is it only a matter of when.  And as I alluded to before...  it may not wait until 2021.

You think the 'rebel's' in his administration and exploring the 25th are the only ones that are well aware this guy is a threat to our country. His instability, lack of knowledge, empathy, intelligence (though possessing great cunning) and his utter lack of respect for the office he holds, and the instituation that most non-Trump supporters hold dear.

you bet your ass the DOJ does.. and the word spokely quietly here.. is due to the special nature of Trump precedence and guidelines regarding the indictment of a sitting President might be tossed due to specical circumstances at play here. NOt the crime as much.. but the danger to this country that he himself poses.  

Personally.. though the DOJ is apolitical.. they still have to avoid the appearance of being so.. so I think if it going to.. it happens soon.  In the next 6 months before the election campaign itself kicks off.. after the Clinton fiasco.. no way again they ever get anywhere near being thought to influence and like 2016 actually help decide an election.  
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2019 at 18:34
Darkelf: It seems you misunderstood me. I was expressing my doubt about the validity of anything Michael
Cohen says, not because I personally doubt his words, but because if you want to have a credible witness
against Donald Trump, you'd have to do better than having Cohen testify.

The problem is that Cohen is a proven liar, and just because it this point of time he happens to say what I (or
possibly we) believe to be the truth, I can't just declare a breakpoint and say: OK, this is what I want to hear,
so it's valid and believable. Heaven knows what he might say if, for instance, Trump would start dangling
pardons about again.

If we're unlucky, this might even backfire by having the republicans hold up his testimony as 'proof' that a liar
is now testifying against Trump, and therefore Trump must be innocent.

As for his conviction: it is possible for Cohen to have his sentence reduced through appeal to the judge, if he
can present himself as a reliable, credible, and helpful witness even after his conviction. That's quite an
incentive to roll over and play the good boy.


Edited by npjnpj - February 27 2019 at 18:36
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2019 at 18:00
^ I sure hope you're right, precedence says that is the case.   But he is such a smarmy New'Yawkuh one does wonder if anything he's ever said is real.


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2019 at 16:52
Originally posted by npjnpj npjnpj wrote:

Following the Michael Cohen testimony today, my thoughts were: here is this strong-arm man and nasty
piece of work enforcer, whose testimony is worth nothing at all because he’s a convicted felon and liar,
speaking to a body such as he’s already lied to, hoping to reduce his sentence by telling what everyone
already knows anyway, and throwing a bone of one or two of dubious pieces of evidence to back up his
claims. True or not, who cares? It’s Michael Cohen!

Evidently, you don't care. What you should be asking yourself is why everyone in the Trump sphere has been convicted of lying...for Trump. Cohen was convicted for a number of things, one of them was lying for Trump. Cohen has already been sentenced. He is not getting his sentenced reduced by appearing before Congress again, so that stupid right-wing take is just a nonsensical diversion. He lied before Congress to protect Trump, he was caught in the lie by Mueller (who already knows what the truth is), and now he is being forced to tell the truth in public.

So, it seems you are okay that Trump has lied about committing obstruction of justice, lied about paying off sexual liaisons during the 2016 elections because that information would have harmed his chances (and I would suggest that news that Trump slept with a porn star while his wife was nursing a newborn would certainly have affected many voters), knowingly falsified federal financial disclosures, and blatantly lied about doing business with Russia during the election (which he denied numerous times).

You are okay with that, right? Having read court transcripts from any number of RICO cases where mob bosses have been found guilty of racketeering by being implicated by convicted subordinates who did the boss's bidding, I don't really see any difference. Boss Tweet has been implicated by his Scammany Hall underlings on more than one occasion. Cohen is just a piece of the puzzle.
 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2019 at 12:19
Following the Michael Cohen testimony today, my thoughts were: here is this strong-arm man and nasty
piece of work enforcer, whose testimony is worth nothing at all because he’s a convicted felon and liar,
speaking to a body such as he’s already lied to, hoping to reduce his sentence by telling what everyone
already knows anyway, and throwing a bone of one or two of dubious pieces of evidence to back up his
claims. True or not, who cares? It’s Michael Cohen!
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2019 at 18:29
I can't resist saying that I find 45 revolting.  
I do hope he gets crushed in the BIGGEST landslide EVER!
"Into every rain, a little life must fall." ~Tom Rapp
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2019 at 18:10
oh dear God no man..  there is nor will be any GOP revolt.

My point is and always has been... do you remember my 2020 election preview. I broke down the states that decided the 2016. Trump didn't get many more votes than Romney did in 2012.. ie.. that mythical 'missing white vote' that his right wing nationalism is thought to have encouraged, that the GOP has been chasing for years didn't win Trump the election. It merely offset the first real signs of the dissolving of the classic Republican Party and the moderate elements NOT voting for him. 

 It was depressed Democratic turnout that decided the 2016 election.. AND.. and a big and at that.. those who voted 3rd party (were the margins in nearly all those rust belt states).  They hated both Trump and Hillary.. well guess what.. only one of them will be on the ballot in 2020.

Most Republcians will support him Madan..  again..  they don't vote in their economic self interest.. and the Democrats never have (though 2020 could well be different) have given them reason to return to the party after all these decades.

The very real problem Trump has.. and why I am not going out on a limb and saying Trump is very quickly heading to having less chance of winning in 2020 than I do of being a famous porn star in 2020 is...

he has made ZERO.. nadda.. ZIPPO attemps to be anything but President of those that support him.. he has alienated large swaths of the electorate.. not just urbanite Democrat.. but moderats suburbanite... and his base of support is not enough anyway to win. 2018 proved that where Republicans turned out in huge numbers.. and still got crushed.

add into that .. not a revolt.. but even a slight slipping of his support. Which there is already ample evidence of. The few pragmatic and non-white ID politics/Religous Fundies still left in teh Republican party he crosses the line from merely losing the election 

to getting crushed in a landslide (electorally)


Edited by micky - February 25 2019 at 18:13
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