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SteveG View Drop Down
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Points: 20617 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2022 at 08:52
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

The Russian people will help? Perhaps not. Putin has drilled into the masses that NATO is an existential threat to the country, and many belive Putin when he says he will make Russia great again. Reminds you of someone else, doesn’t it?

if the ruble becomes as valuable as toilet paper??  Might be race between the Oligarchs and common man to hang Putin high.

the shame is that many.. many Ukrainians will have to die... to sacrifice themselves to allow the time for sanctions to really hit home and realization they do not end until Russia is completely out of Ukraine and international borders reestablished. In short.. this is a war Russia can not win. Putin will not survive (politically or otherwise). Just a question of when and who by he is turned upon

While what we've seen hurts.. and hurts badly.. it was the result of 4-5 months of behind the scenes and secret negotations. US intelligence nailed this back in October. That is why Biden let slip about Nord Stream before even the invasion started...  and people were like.. what can we do.  It was already settled. I don't think Putin thought we could .. much less that quickly .. heal the divisions and economic self interests that divided many European nations.  They were obviously caught flat footed with their years long attempt to make themselves sanctions proofed in ruins.

and it seems the 2nd shoe is in the works to drop.. the complete cutting off of Russia economically.  Italy which is the leading importer of Russian energy as at the moment moving moves to adapt to the cutting off of Russian energy.

how long it takes for the biillionaires to toss him out of window and end this senseless war?  Who knows
Nice to see back mick! Smile Hope that you and raff are well!
 
Yes, I agree that Putin's political career is over, but he's got a lot of stooges in his arsenal and will not go easily and in a timely manner. But go he will.
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Points: 20617 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2022 at 08:58
Originally posted by Archisorcerus Archisorcerus wrote:

Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Very well. I have to defer to your superior knowledge on these things, being so close to Russia and having more contact with its citizens.

Our culture gets the Russian culture better. You might know that we were very close with Russia, before America's cultural influence manifested itself. Also the "freedom" thing is a very convulated thing. Your (America's) unseen red line is a straight and fixed one. And it seems like impossible to cross that with "speech", unless you're an evil genius with a godly charisma. Whilst, here it is quite complex and fragile. Anyway, thank you. Smile
America's "freedom" has gotten a bit convoluted,  and it's democracy is quite fragile these days, but that's a topic for another thread. LOL
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Points: 46843 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2022 at 09:13
Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

The Russian people will help? Perhaps not. Putin has drilled into the masses that NATO is an existential threat to the country, and many belive Putin when he says he will make Russia great again. Reminds you of someone else, doesn’t it?

if the ruble becomes as valuable as toilet paper??  Might be race between the Oligarchs and common man to hang Putin high.

the shame is that many.. many Ukrainians will have to die... to sacrifice themselves to allow the time for sanctions to really hit home and realization they do not end until Russia is completely out of Ukraine and international borders reestablished. In short.. this is a war Russia can not win. Putin will not survive (politically or otherwise). Just a question of when and who by he is turned upon

While what we've seen hurts.. and hurts badly.. it was the result of 4-5 months of behind the scenes and secret negotations. US intelligence nailed this back in October. That is why Biden let slip about Nord Stream before even the invasion started...  and people were like.. what can we do.  It was already settled. I don't think Putin thought we could .. much less that quickly .. heal the divisions and economic self interests that divided many European nations.  They were obviously caught flat footed with their years long attempt to make themselves sanctions proofed in ruins.

and it seems the 2nd shoe is in the works to drop.. the complete cutting off of Russia economically.  Italy which is the leading importer of Russian energy as at the moment moving moves to adapt to the cutting off of Russian energy.

how long it takes for the biillionaires to toss him out of window and end this senseless war?  Who knows
Nice to see back mick! Smile Hope that you and raff are well!
 
Yes, I agree that Putin's political career is over, but he's got a lot of stooges in his arsenal and will not go easily and in a timely manner. But go he will.

blame Covid!!  Finally after two years... got it over the weekend now enjoyed a 5 day paid quarantine/vacation from work so little to do but enjoy Raff's company... and motherly ways... and spam the internet!!!  Doing well otherwise.. just growing old and more crotchety in each others anti-social company haha.

as I posted earlier Steve.. the end to the war is not hard to see.. Putin is finished either way. Admitting defeat and withdrawing.. which NO ONE sees as a real possibility.. or fighting an unwinable war with his economy going into the toilet until the ecomomic powers that be removed him and every Russian troop is back outside of Ukrainian borders... and good God will Russia have a bill to pay in recompense.  I quipped about it earlier... curious to see if Biden/Nato do try to right a wrong and make the Crimea part of the final bill Russia pays for its aggression and removal of the sanctions.  

the wild card.. burning the house down on the way out...as always.. does Russia have the same safeguards we have here.. and were implemented during Nixon and Trump when the military realized the head of state was f**king nuts...unstable and quietly.. inserted controls on 'unlimited' controls over deploying nukes.

Russians do indeed love their children as well...
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Points: 17081 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2022 at 09:27
Putin has enough people that back him in Russia to stay in power. It's only a matter of time before he passes away, but I believe the next Russian leader will be more or less the same. If not even more nationalistic.
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Points: 46843 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2022 at 09:37
that's a bit of an opaque crystal ball to look through but as always common sense is always a good start.

I think the real power in Russia is.. and long has been the economic Oligarchs... as long Putin made them rich they kept him.  They will likely be the first in line to dipose him.. their love is money.. not clouded by propaganda  or soviet era nostalgia. I suspect they will see the writing on the wall very quickly... if not already.  Putin lost the economic war by the first weekend.. and got into an unwinnable miltary one. One they can't win before their economy and currency collapses.

Putin's war is costing them billions and doesn't stop.. until the war is over and Ukraine's borders reaffirmed.

as to the next....  who do you think they'll choose.. some military guy.. or ex KGB agent with pretension of miltary imperial glory? Do they want to head down this road again???  f**k no Flossy... they pick one of their own. A business man... a Vodka King!!!!  LOL


Edited by micky - March 01 2022 at 09:39
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Points: 17081 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2022 at 10:05
I don't agree. In countries like China and like Russia, capital do not dominate the politicians, rather it is the opposite direction. The capitalist oligarchs are tools of the state and do not own the state, unlike what's found in the United States and Western Europe.
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Points: 53926 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2022 at 10:23
I found the news of Ukraine's application to be a member of the EU interesting. This usually takes years of negotiations and Zelenskyy was hoping they would "fast track" this, a process that currently doesn't exist. I understand Ursula von der Leyen has said that "we want them in the European Union." 

I imagine this is more symbolic than practical at this time, because if the Ukraine were immediately made a member, member states of the EU would have to defend Ukraine in the current war. Very unlikely, but this threat of EU membership may turn into a possible bargaining chip for Zelenskyy during the next round of negotiations on the Belarus border. I find that a creative strategy given the circumstances.
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Points: 46843 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2022 at 10:23
hmm... I'll defer to Russian experts on that. Who generally agree that Putin has existed in power and making a mockery of their constitution at the sufferance of the oligarchs. Thus are true shadow powers of the state.. thus would you think have a large say in who takes over next and making things right with the west and get on the path back to normality business wise as well as repairing the economic damage this war brought. This invasion was likely the death of the dreams of a new Russian empire and dreams of past power and influence it once had as a global superpower like the good old days.. just as the Suez was for the Brits. Those dreams of past grandeur have to often be beat out of a country. As the US will soon learn itself I suspect in the decades to come and doubt any dreamers or pretenders to that will be allowed anywhere close to the Kremlin which means former spooks and kooks rooted in conflict with the west? Don't bother applying
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Points: 46843 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2022 at 10:30
Originally posted by progaardvark progaardvark wrote:

I found the news of Ukraine's application to be a member of the EU interesting. This usually takes years of negotiations and Zelenskyy was hoping they would "fast track" this, a process that currently doesn't exist. I understand Ursula von der Leyen has said that "we want them in the European Union." 

I imagine this is more symbolic than practical at this time, because if the Ukraine were immediately made a member, member states of the EU would have to defend Ukraine in the current war. Very unlikely, but this threat of EU membership may turn into a possible bargaining chip for Zelenskyy during the next round of negotiations on the Belarus border. I find that a creative strategy given the circumstances.

I do wonder if that.. plus a negotiation on future NATO status both comes into play with regards to a final answer to the Crimean question.  You best bet Ukraine wants back what belongs to it.. but depending on who long this war lasts and .. well.. just who they are negotiating with if it isn't Putin.. but makes a hell of bargaining chip to getting Crimea back as one can assume the end of sanctions will tied to a full Russian withdraw and of course the Crimean annexation was never deemed a legal one.  In that the sooner the Russians call it a failure the better for the more Ukrainian dead and destroyed cities.. the harsher the cost to the Russians to get out from the sanctions. 
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Points: 5319 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2022 at 12:46
Originally posted by NotAProghead NotAProghead wrote:

^ Apparently you are okay with your government provoking my government to kill innocent citizens.
Discussion becomes pointless.
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Points: 34099 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2022 at 15:05
All of the scenes from Ukraine makes me both depressed and sad.
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Points: 5111 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2022 at 15:24
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

I think the real power in Russia is.. and long has been the economic Oligarchs... as long Putin made them rich they kept him.  They will likely be the first in line to dipose him.. their love is money.. not clouded by propaganda  or soviet era nostalgia. I suspect they will see the writing on the wall very quickly... if not already.
I'm hoping that discreet conversations are currently being had between US/EU/UK* security services at the highest level and key oligarchs, whereby said oligarchs are being offered concrete assurances as to the protection of their financial interests in the West, provided they can effect the removal of Putin.  

I mean I don't like these chaps or their corruption or their dirty money, but right now getting rid of the madman has to be the only priority.

* Note, I only mention insignificant third-rate power the UK here because it's home to so much of the oligarchs' filthy lucre, and a key part of their laundry arrangements, so ought to be a participant in such conversations.


Edited by Mascodagama - March 01 2022 at 15:24
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Points: 46843 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2022 at 16:02
Hey Simon!  Good to see you around and kicking still.  

Yes it wouldn't' surprise me IN THE LEAST if such feelers are already out there.  If one has really paid attention one would see that it is quite apparent that we have extensive contacts/spies within the Russian military/command apparatus.  Lost to many but not all was the unheard of displays of Biden providing public releases of what our intelligence services are telling us to blunt Russian disinformation tactics.

was obviously enough to foul up the false flag ops the Russians had planned to justify the original invasion.. to the point they had nothing left in the pot to use as justification but some sh*t about drug addled nazi's threatening Russia hahah

it really looks like the whole invasion went off with little planning or thought.. almost like they knew any plans were compromised.  The latest intell... their damn forces are running out of ammunition and fuel. To say nothing of going in piecemeal and gettting slaughtered... not sure what.. if any plan they had but Putin's recognition that he was compromized by US intellgience (which came out this week they had notice of this invasion back in October) probably led to the shoddy half hazard nature of it.

Won't slap a timeframe on this...  but the hits keep rolling in.. shipping companies are not docking in Russian ports.  I wouldn't be surprised that within a week the economic powers that be see to his removal.. and begin the steps to end this economically destructive war to Russia before it becomes a disaster/meltdown. Especially as the sooner they do.. the less onerous the terms the Ukrainians will demand.. who I strongly suspect the west.. in deference to the bravery Ukrainians and Zelensky himself showed.. will fully back.


Edited by micky - March 01 2022 at 16:04
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Points: 20617 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2022 at 18:16
Originally posted by Mascodagama Mascodagama wrote:

Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

I think the real power in Russia is.. and long has been the economic Oligarchs... as long Putin made them rich they kept him.  They will likely be the first in line to dipose him.. their love is money.. not clouded by propaganda  or soviet era nostalgia. I suspect they will see the writing on the wall very quickly... if not already.
I'm hoping that discreet conversations are currently being had between US/EU/UK* security services at the highest level and key oligarchs, whereby said oligarchs are being offered concrete assurances as to the protection of their financial interests in the West, provided they can effect the removal of Putin.  

I mean I don't like these chaps or their corruption or their dirty money, but right now getting rid of the madman has to be the only priority.

* Note, I only mention insignificant third-rate power the UK here because it's home to so much of the oligarchs' filthy lucre, and a key part of their laundry arrangements, so ought to be a participant in such conversations.

Well said and very insightful.
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Points: 10748 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2022 at 20:27
Ukrainians altered their highway signs to help Russian troops find where they need to go:




Edited by Easy Money - March 01 2022 at 20:28
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Points: 6101 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2022 at 22:20
Originally posted by Easy Money Easy Money wrote:

Ukrainians altered their highway signs to help Russian troops find where they need to go:




Na chuj! LOL
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Points: 24880 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 02 2022 at 02:49
^WTF?
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Points: 47035 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 02 2022 at 02:52
Originally posted by someone_else someone_else wrote:

^WTF?

I think it's a swearing of sorts. 
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Points: 10748 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 02 2022 at 05:46
Cheers Hrychu, a Polish friend with friends and family in the Ukraine sent me that.
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Points: 6673 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 02 2022 at 06:25
One positive is the much appreciated return of our much loved Micky, I ,as well as many (if not all) have missed your sense of humour, a rare commodity these days. Wit, bite and giggles are back on PA . Putin is in real trouble now......
I never post anything anywhere without doing more than basic research, often in depth.
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