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jamesbaldwin View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2022 at 16:30
Originally posted by Lewian Lewian wrote:

@Lorenzo: As far as I'm concerned, the "psychological issue" (is Putin a madman?) isn't that relevant. Putin is a man in an extremely exposed position that implies an extreme lifestyle and behaviour, with a certain history, and surrounded by an environment that will tend to confirm his views. Perfectly normal people tend to perceive and believe what fits their prior convictions, and may behave erratically when they start to feel that things are going wrong. I don't think that any particular psychological diagnosis is required to explain Putin's actions, and many things that can happen (including nasty ones) are compatible with the absence of such a diagnosis.

I do think that discussing to what extent NATO's enlargement has contributed to the current situation makes some sense, although using terms such as "original sin" is rather inappropriate (and for sure doesn't look as if you "have many doubts and just want to discuss"). One problem with the idea that without NATO enlargement we wouldn't have this war is this: If you assume that the main reason for NATO enlargement was that NATO wanted to extend their powers, and as such it was something of an attack, and if you don't think that Americans or NATO people are particularly evil, you'd need to assume that enlargening the area of influence is a natural and common political motive and powers will generally tend to do that if they have the chance. But if this is so, you should well expect that also Russia, at a certain point after 1990, would have wanted and tried to do that, and the lack of extension of NATO would have given her a chance to get away with it on a larger scale. You'd basically need to assume that Putin is nicer and less offensive-minded than the Americans to think that the Russians wouldn't have done, at some point between 1990 and now, what the Americans have done, in your view, in the 1990s and early 2000s  Otherwise, NATO-membership of the Eastern European countries is perfectly justified (which is how I see things), given that they chose democratically to take part and nobody threatened them with war to get in.

Another thing that I wonder is what you think follows from your backward-looking analysis about who's at fault? What should be done now?

Making history with the word IF is dangerous.

I CAN'T say that without NATO enlargement to the East, Russia would not have invaded Ukraine. If I said so, I would give the responsibility for this war to the US. Instead, the main responsibility lies with Putin, the crimes must be blamed on him.

However, I cannot help but consider that the American administration was aware that by expanding NATO to the West it would break the peace with Russia and put Russia in a corner, surround it, humiliate it, with the risk that sooner or later it would react militarily. (especially after the 2014 coup in Ukraine).
The USA, however, preferred to violate the peace with Russia (Europe suffers a lot for this, not the USA) to cultivate their project of world domination, which they believed they had achieved by winning the Cold War (in 1991 the Bush senior's Iraq war for oil, with the excuse of the invasion of Kuwait).

Now, my doubts are:
- Putin's real intentions: does he want to annex Ukraine even at the cost of a long war?
- if the Ukrainian Resistance can win with Western weapons (I believe not, I believe that the weapons sent from the West will make this invasion even longer and bloody)
- if we arrive to a world war
- if there is still space to negotiate: can Putin be satisfied with only part of Ukraine?
- if sanctions on Russia are of any use
- if Putin risks falling due to an internal implosion

Now, what is missing is a dialogue between the US AND RUSSIA.
There is no dialogue due to both Biden and Putin.

Biden is unwilling to acknowledge the mistake of NATO's eastern enlargement. Putin closed the dialogue after starting the war.
To find out if there is still space for a diplomatic solution
Biden should
1) realize as soon as possible that PROBABLY the invasion of Ukraine cannot be stopped except with a world war and convince Zelenskij of this too
2) ask for a meeting with Putin and negotiate on the basis of a withdrawal from Ukraine in exchange for the cession to Russia of the areas south-east of Ukraine and the written promise that NATO will not expand to any other state of East Euope.

I don't know if, at this point, Putin would accept (if Biden had done it before, it was more probable), but certainly with this offer Biden would put Putin in serious trouble. If Putin didnt accept, he would be a criminal madman in the eyes of a large part of Russian public opinion, as well as of the economic oligarchies.
If Putin accepted, then it would be up to Zelensky to be realistic and accept this solution, instead of wanting to be a hero and lose the war.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2022 at 16:24
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2022 at 16:22
We are entering a new Cold War for sure. It's gonna get ugly. I didn't grow up during the Cold War, so this is a new thing.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2022 at 16:20
excellent post.. but taking the liberty of snipping you for in that post is a very vital point to understanding where we are.. and just how dangerous it is. 

Originally posted by tszirmay tszirmay wrote:

the Cold War had basic rules that were set in the sand, and the belligerents played within those rules. Unfortunately, the current conflict has no CLEAR rules 

very well stated sir... much better than I could have. One can easily say that the lack of such rules make this present situation far more dangerous than 1962 and perhaps more so than at any point during ...  well.. that we have ever seen.



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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2022 at 15:48
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

of course it is... don't think I didn't say we were. I do hold to the view that we are indeed at war right now with Russia. Just mentioning how one element of that hybrid war, a major tool in the Russian box, is an escalatory step to a shooting one and if we see it happen...  then the chances of escalation to a real war increase mightily.  As I said.. it is a good sign that Putin has not gone there that we might be alive a week from now. We are very close to 1962 territory here.. one bad move is all it will take.. which is why all this intellectual masturbating some are tossing offf here is laughable.  This isn't an classroom ideological discussion...  people are dying by the hundreds...  one misstep.. and we are talking tens or hundreds of millions.

Well said.....The Cuban missile crisis was a hair strand away from MAD but somehow, maybe alien interference, an improbable solution was made that was not either do nothing OR bomb the crap out of the planet. But the big difference is that the Cold War had basic rules that were set in the sand, and the belligerents played within those rules (like my US sub commander who, in an interview admitted that in 23 years , he had 7 "physical" encounters (read, ramming, bumping, nicking -sounds like a hockey game) with Soviet rivals that , could have escalated into BOOM BOOM or simply diverted to the good old use asymmetrical proxies to do all the dirty work. Unfortunately, the current conflict has no CLEAR rules , notice that the Russians have not concentrated on using overwhelming air power, as flying into the wrong airspace can be construed as an easy but deadly mistake. Plus the Grozny- Afghan-Georgia conflicts were mostly land-based, grinding affairs with heavy artillery and missile concentrations.  Yes....all it takes is one misstep without any Petrov around to NOT launch the ICBMs . 
Just saw the movie Wargames recently ( maybe 2 weeks ago)......chilling coincidence. 


Edited by tszirmay - March 07 2022 at 06:41
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2022 at 15:12
of course it is... don't think I didn't say we were. I do hold to the view that we are indeed at war right now with Russia. Just mentioning how one element of that hybrid war, a major tool in the Russian box, is an escalatory step to a shooting one and if we see it happen...  then the chances of escalation to a real war increase mightily.  As I said.. it is a good sign that Putin has not gone there that we might be alive a week from now. We are very close to 1962 territory here.. one bad move is all it will take.. which is why all this intellectual masturbating some are tossing offf here is laughable.  This isn't an classroom ideological discussion...  people are dying by the hundreds...  one misstep.. and we are talking tens or hundreds of millions.

Edited by micky - March 06 2022 at 15:13
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2022 at 14:57
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

one good sign at least to this point.  One huge advantage Russia has in a non lethal hyrbid war the ability and expertise to strike at us via cyber warfare and cripple our critical infrastructure and systems... in retaliation no doubt for the crippling of their economy.

they haven't gone there (yet to this point)... and perhaps with good reason.  Just as we don't want to escalate this. So far Putin appears to not want to either as it seems Washington did get word to Moscow that doing that would be construed as a direct attack on America by Russia and an Article 5 trigger... and a big escalation even if it doesn't directly lead to troops or jets moving into Ukraine and direct military confrontation.

.

The west is already in a hybrid war with Russia!!!!Confused
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2022 at 14:51
@Lorenzo: As far as I'm concerned, the "psychological issue" (is Putin a madman?) isn't that relevant. Putin is a man in an extremely exposed position that implies an extreme lifestyle and behaviour, with a certain history, and surrounded by an environment that will tend to confirm his views. Perfectly normal people tend to perceive and believe what fits their prior convictions, and may behave erratically when they start to feel that things are going wrong. I don't think that any particular psychological diagnosis is required to explain Putin's actions, and many things that can happen (including nasty ones) are compatible with the absence of such a diagnosis.

I do think that discussing to what extent NATO's enlargement has contributed to the current situation makes some sense, although using terms such as "original sin" is rather inappropriate (and for sure doesn't look as if you "have many doubts and just want to discuss"). One problem with the idea that without NATO enlargement we wouldn't have this war is this: If you assume that the main reason for NATO enlargement was that NATO wanted to extend their powers, and as such it was something of an attack, and if you don't think that Americans or NATO people are particularly evil, you'd need to assume that enlargening the area of influence is a natural and common political motive and powers will generally tend to do that if they have the chance. But if this is so, you should well expect that also Russia, at a certain point after 1990, would have wanted and tried to do that, and the lack of extension of NATO would have given her a chance to get away with it on a larger scale. You'd basically need to assume that Putin is nicer and less offensive-minded than the Americans to think that the Russians wouldn't have done, at some point between 1990 and now, what the Americans have done, in your view, in the 1990s and early 2000s  Otherwise, NATO-membership of the Eastern European countries is perfectly justified (which is how I see things), given that they chose democratically to take part and nobody threatened them with war to get in.

Another thing that I wonder is what you think follows from your backward-looking analysis about who's at fault? What should be done now?


Edited by Lewian - March 06 2022 at 14:52
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2022 at 14:27
one good sign at least to this point.  One huge advantage Russia has in a non lethal hyrbid war the ability and expertise to strike at us via cyber warfare and cripple our critical infrastructure and systems... in retaliation no doubt for the crippling of their economy.

they haven't gone there (yet to this point)... and perhaps with good reason.  Just as we don't want to escalate this. So far Putin appears to not want to either as it seems Washington did get word to Moscow that doing that would be construed as a direct attack on America by Russia and an Article 5 trigger... and a big escalation even if it doesn't directly lead to troops or jets moving into Ukraine and direct military confrontation.

.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2022 at 14:24
THE LOGIC OF WAR AND SOME QUESTION: 

In this thread I see how the logic of war works:

1) There is the MAD MAN, the new Hitler, the one who has only faults and no reason. The BAD you see in American movies. In this case, Putin.

2) We must take sides, support GOOD ONES, those who are right (the Ukrainian government, Zelenskyj) and support everything they ask for (weapons, entry into the EU and NATO), and despise the madman , which must be stopped, and possibly ousted from his throne

3) Anyone who wants to do analysis (me), who does not see all the faults only on one side is automatically a supporter of the madman (Putin). Although, first of all, he said that the invasion of Ukraine is wrong and must be condemned. Tertium non datur, the Latins said.

4) So you have to shut up (Dark Elf: "Stop", Steve G. "What is wrong with you"), censor those who don't cheer the madman, those who don't blame Putin, those looking for a solution to the war different from shipping weapons to Ukrainians, from sanctioning, from censoring Russian news sites in the West like Sputnik and Russia Today.

So I ask everyone here these questions:

1) Why do you think I keep reporting the analyzes of those who said that the enlargement of NATO to the East would probably lead to a war? Am I an anti-American? Am I a Putin supporter? Do I want to blame the US for the invasion? Why do I do it?

2) Are you sure that sending weapons to Ukrainians from EU countries will help them? Are you sure? Are you sure this will not lead to the complete distruction of Ukraine and World War III? Or can doubts be expressed in this regard?

4) Are you sure that Biden's invitation to Finland and Sweden to attend a NATO meeting was a peace move? Are you sure it only served to defend them? Are you sure that the good of Ukraine is to join NATO? Or can doubts be expressed in this regard?

5) Are you sure that Putin is crazy? And if so, were Clinton and Busj Jr. also crazy who bombed and then invaded Iraq? Are you sure that Ukraine Russia will invade other nations afterwards? Are you sure that by ousting Putin from his throne, a better one will come? What has history taught us about it? Can any doubts be expressed in this regard?

6) The sanctions on Russia: are you sure they will make Putin desist from the invasion? Are you sure they will not backfire on the Russian people? And if Russia annexes Ukraine, are you sure that the sanctions will not backfire on the Ukrainian people and on the Europeans themselves?

Reading some analysts, I have my own position on these questions, but I do not pretend that my ideas are recognized as right, becasu, first of all, I have many diubts on some matter. I just would like to discuss about these questions, about hat is good and what is wrong, and about the possible solutions of this war. 




Edited by jamesbaldwin - March 06 2022 at 14:27
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2022 at 13:38
Originally posted by mathman0806 mathman0806 wrote:

I am typically a casual follow of world news and politics. And would not claim to have a strong understanding of NATO, but it seems to me that it's two different things to say that NATO expansion has predictably lead to the war and that Putin's actions are justified. The predictability is based on understanding how Russia was going to perceive NATO expansion. If there were no expansion, as people have pointed out, the outcome of Russian aggression was going to play out in any case. Putin's own reasoning supports this as he views Ukraine as being part of Russia, so there would be no scenario in which Ukraine could be independent. NATO is a only perceived threat (and an excuse) as Russia has the check of nukes.

In any case. The concern now is the well being of all the people caught up in this. The end would have to be a change in leadership in Russia. Putin would have to be replaced by leadership motivated by preserving th internal well being of the Russian people and not some old notion of preserving its past.


Thank you for these words of wisdom, which express what I also think in much better terms than I would have been able to find. Sometimes reading this thread feels a bit like watching spectator sports - either you root for Team A or for Team B. Like Geo, I am primarily concerned about the innocent people caught up in this - not only the Ukrainians, whose country (a sovereign nation, something that way too many people seem to forget) has been invaded, but also the vast majority of Russians, including the young, inexperienced guys in the army who have found themselves fighting a war rather than taking part in a drill. Just as Trump despises most of his supporters who are not wealthy and powerful, so Putin could not care less about the welfare of his people, or any other supposedly ethnic Russians, in Ukraine or elsewhere.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2022 at 13:36
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

^ after Steve? There is the matter of before and during as there is extremely strong and persuasive evidence evidence that everything Stalin did right up to Jun 22 1941 was geared to one outcome. 

Stalinsim.. is the violent export of world communism.  Stalin was brutal.. but the man had a plan. 

The answer to the great question many have asked.. why did Germany attack the Soviet Union knowing their history all too well..... that opening a 2nd front was a no win proposition... quiet simply the German's knew they had no choice. Stalin telegraphed his intent in the spring of 1941 by going over and above what the Molotov-Ribbentrop treaty assigned the Soviet Union and attacking Germany.

thus Hitler beat Stalin to the punch.. as both armies stressed offensive tactics NOT defensive tactics. Stalin was moving troops to the western frontier in the spring of 1941 to knock Germany out of the war in the fall of 1941 and with Britain and its forces island bound.. and America on the other side of the ocean years from interfering.. Stalin planned.. and would have not just taken Eastern Europe.. but ALL of Europe.  Just imagine what Stalin did to the Polish... the Baltics and Bessarabia.. and imagine that level of liquidation across all of Europe.


If Hitler cut the same deal with Stalin that FDR did, Stalin would have had the Eastern Block with Hitler taking Western Europe, but old Adolf wanted it all. BTW, Russia seemed pretty unprepared for a war with Germany in the beginning of their conflict. No Western arms and no tank factories in the East of the country at that point.

Edited by SteveG - March 06 2022 at 13:44
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2022 at 13:31
^ after Steve? There is the matter of before and during as there is extremely strong and persuasive evidence evidence that everything Stalin did right up to Jun 22 1941 was geared to one outcome. 

Stalinsim.. is the violent export of world communism.  Stalin was brutal.. but the man had a plan. 

The answer to the great question many have asked.. why did Germany attack the Soviet Union knowing their history all too well..... that opening a 2nd front was a no win proposition... quiet simply the German's knew they had no choice. Stalin telegraphed his intent in the spring of 1941 by going over and above what the Molotov-Ribbentrop treaty assigned the Soviet Union and attacking Germany.

thus Hitler beat Stalin to the punch.. as both armies stressed offensive tactics NOT defensive tactics. Stalin was moving troops to the western frontier in the spring of 1941 to knock Germany out of the war in the fall of 1941 and with Britain and its forces island bound.. and America on the other side of the ocean years from interfering.. Stalin planned.. and would have not just taken Eastern Europe.. but ALL of Europe.  Just imagine what Stalin did to the Polish... the Baltics and Bessarabia.. and imagine that level of liquidation across all of Europe.


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2022 at 12:49
Have people here forgotten about Russian expansionist actions after WW2 where the Eastern Block countries and one half of Germany were occupied and controlled by Russia? In 1941, the USSR and Nazi Germany signed a non aggression pact. If Germany did not attack the USSR, the European countries and the US and Canada might have ended up fighting both Hitler and Stalin, as Russia’s aim was always to expand in Europe. These are the reasons why NATO existed and thrived after the fall of the USSR. No one in the West forgot any of this and a stronger NATO was the result and fully justified, as was the inclusion of several former Eastern block countries. Ukrainians may fear that their country will be Russian controlled once more but Polish citizens do not. Thank God. And thank NATO.

Edited by SteveG - March 06 2022 at 12:54
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2022 at 12:35
Originally posted by mathman0806 mathman0806 wrote:

I am typically a casual follow of world news and politics. And would not claim to have a strong understanding of NATO, but it seems to me that it's two different things to say that NATO expansion has predictably lead to the war and that Putin's actions are justified. The predictability is based on understanding how Russia was going to perceive NATO expansion. If there were no expansion, as people have pointed out, the outcome of Russian aggression was going to play out in any case. Putin's own reasoning supports this as he views Ukraine as being part of Russia, so there would be no scenario in which Ukraine could be independent. NATO is a only perceived threat (and an excuse) as Russia has the check of nukes.

In any case. The concern now is the well being of all the people caught up in this. The end would have to be a change in leadership in Russia. Putin would have to be replaced by leadership motivated by preserving th internal well being of the Russian people and not some old notion of preserving its past.
Well said. The truth always lies somewhere in the middle.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2022 at 12:23
I am typically a casual follower of world news and politics. And would not claim to have a strong understanding of NATO, but it seems to me that it's two different things to say that NATO expansion has predictably lead to the war and that Putin's actions are justified. The predictability is based on understanding how Russia was going to perceive NATO expansion. If there were no expansion, as people have pointed out, the outcome of Russian aggression was going to play out in any case. Putin's own reasoning supports this as he views Ukraine as being part of Russia, so there would be no scenario in which Ukraine could be independent. NATO is only a perceived threat (and an excuse) as Russia has the check of nukes.

In any case, the concern now is the well being of all the people caught up in this. The end would have to be a change in leadership in Russia. Putin would have to be replaced by leadership motivated by preserving th internal well being of the Russian people and not some old notion of preserving its past.

Edited by mathman0806 - March 06 2022 at 14:32
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2022 at 12:23
I tend to see such claims (see below) within the scope of conspiracy theories, and this is not an exception. (I cannot dismiss them outrightly, but I find them highly improbable.)

Unproven claims of US-funded Ukraine bioweapons labs spread online

Source: https://news.yahoo.com/unproven-claims-us-funded-ukraine-185758600.html

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2022 at 12:00
Originally posted by jamesbaldwin jamesbaldwin wrote:

About The Guardian:

I have posted an article written by an American analyst of the Cato's Institute (Massachussetts) just to prove that in the last years many Occidental analysts said: We better be beware to enlarge Nato to the East Europe.

The Guardian, as many worthy newspapers, publishes not only news from Ukraine but even analysis with different point of view.

Stop. Just stop. Quit apologizing for Putin. He is dead wrong. Totally to blame for his actions, and his actions alone. And speaking of the dead, if dear ol' Vlad dies tomorrow of a brain aneurysm brought about by his troops failure to defeat common citizens armed with antique rifles and Molotov cocktails (and we can only hope he dies soon), NATO will not be attacking Russia. No one will attack Russia. NATO did not attack Russia when the Iron Curtain fell. No one was marching to Moscow like Napoleon or Hitler. 

But you know what did happen? Countries long repressed by Soviet domination declared their independence. And all of them are in far better shape than when the USSR was dominating them, or annexing them, or quashing their independence movements. Europe, and Russia, for that matter, will be better when they slap together that 5'6'' pine box and bury your boy behind one of the urinals in the basement of the Kremlin. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2022 at 11:03
looks like the US signed off on the 3 way deal to get more fighter jets transferred to Ukraine via Poland.  Good move Thumbs Up
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2022 at 11:02
About The Guardian:

I have posted an article written by an American analyst of the Cato's Institute (Massachussetts) just to prove that in the last years many Occidental analysts said: We better be beware to enlarge Nato to the East Europe.

The Guardian, as many worthy newspapers, publishes not only news from Ukraine but even analysis with different point of view.
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