Russia/Ukraine tensions - Any concern? |
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Lewian
Prog Reviewer Joined: August 09 2015 Location: Italy Status: Offline Points: 14205 |
Posted: December 07 2021 at 11:12 | ||
This has nothing to do with blood. It has happened all over the world, with Western Europe and the USA also often happily involved. By the way, I think Putin is a good strategist. Before he does something like this, he'll do his best to make sure that he can get away with it (not that this is particularly reassuring... ).
Edited by Lewian - December 07 2021 at 11:14 |
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King of Loss
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 21 2005 Location: Boston, MA Status: Offline Points: 16351 |
Posted: December 07 2021 at 11:05 | ||
We will see what happens. I won't be surprised if Putin launches a military incursion. That seems to be in the Russian blood.
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Shadowyzard
Forum Senior Member Joined: February 24 2020 Location: Davutlar Status: Offline Points: 4506 |
Posted: December 07 2021 at 09:43 | ||
^ Yes, but also the minorities and the fringes of the societies were understood better with postmodernism. Many problems are yet to be solved, but we at least are aware of those unlike in modernism. I don't think that we're "progressing" as humanity in the literal sense. But, after postmodernism, we might do that.
Edited by Shadowyzard - December 07 2021 at 09:44 |
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Blacksword
Prog Reviewer Joined: June 22 2004 Location: England Status: Offline Points: 16130 |
Posted: December 07 2021 at 09:28 | ||
The nature of the threat changed after WWII, and the stakes got much higher. The MAD doctrine deterred another global conflict, but it doesn't eliminate the threat altogether. The risk of miscalculation - counting on your opponent not cross the line - would be the probable cause of another global conflict IMO, and it's important to note that the treaties put in place to reduce nuclear arsenals have been ditched by Washington & Moscow. There is the school of thought on both sides, that in light of new developments in missile technology, nuclear conflict could be fought, limited, contained and crucially 'won' so basically MAD no longer stands (or so some believe) This also increases the risk. In any case, that's getting too far ahead. Neither side actually want that, and the more immediate threat is to the people of Ukraine. |
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Ultimately bored by endless ecstasy!
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Shadowyzard
Forum Senior Member Joined: February 24 2020 Location: Davutlar Status: Offline Points: 4506 |
Posted: December 07 2021 at 09:18 | ||
But modernism is said to have ended after the WWII. Most people couldn't predict the 2nd WW after the first. But, it is also said that the immediate aftermath of the first WW caused the 2nd one. I'm not a postmodernism guy, but I think it created an "atmosphere" that hasn't give way to the 3rd World War. Of course, anything can happen still. Modernism would be great in ideal societies, but we seem to be far away from that. Long live postmodernism!!! Till we understand why modernism was great, but we weren't ready for that! |
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snobb
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: August 20 2009 Location: Vilnius,LT,EU Status: Online Points: 3577 |
Posted: December 07 2021 at 09:15 | ||
I don't think Putin going to start the war intentionally - today's Russia isn't an USSR, he just wants to push lazy and toothless Westerners once again to get a gift - the promise to leave Ukraine in Eurasian orbit, not European
But knowing Eurasians impulsivity and partial irrationality, the local conflict can start just by chance, as it already happened before Edited by snobb - December 07 2021 at 09:16 |
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Easy Money
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator / Retired Admin Joined: August 11 2007 Location: Memphis Status: Offline Points: 10395 |
Posted: December 07 2021 at 09:10 | ||
Russia has such a long history of being peace loving pacifists.
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Blacksword
Prog Reviewer Joined: June 22 2004 Location: England Status: Offline Points: 16130 |
Posted: December 07 2021 at 08:58 | ||
Yeah, that's what many people thought before WW1 & WWII.. |
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Ultimately bored by endless ecstasy!
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snobb
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: August 20 2009 Location: Vilnius,LT,EU Status: Online Points: 3577 |
Posted: December 07 2021 at 08:47 | ||
Hi, Hugues, I'm a bit shocked by your post - are you still reading those Kremlin official papers till now?! |
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moshkito
Forum Senior Member Joined: January 04 2007 Location: Grok City Status: Online Points: 16458 |
Posted: December 07 2021 at 08:18 | ||
Hi,
I think that some folks are playing with fire, and all I can hope for is that this does not turn into another Vietnam! It has the makings of it already. But all in all, this kind of thing has been going on for thousands of years with many "conquerors" and we still think they are movies and were not real people! It couldn't happen today with real people, right?
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Music is not just for listening ... it is for LIVING ... you got to feel it to know what's it about! Not being told!
www.pedrosena.com |
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Blacksword
Prog Reviewer Joined: June 22 2004 Location: England Status: Offline Points: 16130 |
Posted: December 07 2021 at 06:12 | ||
Indeed, and the Ukrainian defence minister has said he didn't want NATO troops fighting on Ukrainian soil, but wanted arms and logistical support. So long as Russia doesn't declare that a 'red line' there may not be conflict |
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Ultimately bored by endless ecstasy!
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omphaloskepsis
Forum Senior Member Joined: October 19 2011 Location: Texas Status: Online Points: 6002 |
Posted: December 07 2021 at 05:43 | ||
...I agree with the previous posts. Plus...
I don't think Russia attacks Ukraine unless NATO pours a bunch of troops inside Ukraine. Hopefully, the NeoCon's won't antagonize Russia into a war.
Edited by omphaloskepsis - December 07 2021 at 05:45 |
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Blacksword
Prog Reviewer Joined: June 22 2004 Location: England Status: Offline Points: 16130 |
Posted: December 07 2021 at 05:42 | ||
It appears that one of Moscow's biggest concerns is Ukraine joining NATO, as per Latvia and Lithuania. There is some legitimacy to his concerns, as NATO is encroaching ever close to the Russian border.
That said, it's hard to say which side is actually the most paranoid. What exactly does Putin think NATO is going to do? Invade Russia? I don't think so. I hope this is another example of Putin playing to the gallery at home, and testing the west, although if Georgia and Crimea show us anything, it's that he's not all mouth and no trousers (as we say in England) Then there's the joint military exercises Russia and China held earlier in the year, and the tension with China and Taiwan. It all seems a bit dicey right now.. |
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Ultimately bored by endless ecstasy!
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Sean Trane
Special Collaborator Prog Folk Joined: April 29 2004 Location: Heart of Europe Status: Offline Points: 19709 |
Posted: December 07 2021 at 05:09 | ||
I wish the EU (and NATO) would stop meddling in there, and I have even less trust in the Ukrainian regime than I do in Moscow.
Would most of these ex-Soviet nations treat their respective Russian minorities (even the majority in Latvia) with respect and not think of them as second or third class citizens, Russia wouldn't be in there meddling in.
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let's just stay above the moral melee
prefer the sink to the gutter keep our sand-castle virtues content to be a doer as well as a thinker, prefer lifting our pen rather than un-sheath our sword |
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essexboyinwales
Forum Senior Member Joined: April 27 2015 Location: Bridgend Status: Offline Points: 4539 |
Posted: December 07 2021 at 04:42 | ||
🤞 |
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NotAProghead
Special Collaborator Errors & Omissions Team Joined: October 22 2005 Location: Russia Status: Offline Points: 7711 |
Posted: December 07 2021 at 04:10 | ||
I think storm in a tea cup.
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Who are you and who am I to say we know the reason why... (D. Gilmour)
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Blacksword
Prog Reviewer Joined: June 22 2004 Location: England Status: Offline Points: 16130 |
Posted: December 07 2021 at 02:35 | ||
The British news media has a long tradition of dubious prioritisation of stories. Clearly there's been a lot going on over the last couple of years, with covid and increasing fears over the urgency of the climate crisis, but...
Along with growing tensions with China over Taiwan (again, seldom mentioned by the BBC) there is clearly something potentially very worrying taking shape on the Russia/Ukraine border. This is seldom mentioned by the BBC on it's prime time news, but finally it has surfaced on their news homepage, instead of buried as an afterthought on one of their international pages. Russia has a history of brinkmanship and pressuring the west, when it's seen to have 'weak' or incompetent leadership. With over 100K troops poised on the other side of the Ukraine border, and accusations by Kiev of a planned coup to topple the government and install a pro Moscow regime, where do you think this will lead? Storm in a tea cup, or BANG!! Putin Biden to Zoom |
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