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rushfan4 View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 05 2018 at 14:00
Collins says that she is voting Yes to confirm Kavanaugh.  It is pretty much a done deal unless a "burning bush" shows up in DC in the next 24 hours and God tells McConnell to go jump in a lake.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 05 2018 at 14:18
Yeah, I saw Collins' nauseating speech on the floor of the Senate. Now we'll have to hear how low down and seedy the Dems are by the people who perfected the art of being s**m bags until the crack of doom. She even had the nerve of comparing Kavanaugh to Obama appointee Merrick Garland in both court decisions and temperament. That was rich. The guy the GOP refused to even consider for the Supreme Court. 

This is a major achievement for Trump even though Mitch McConnell was the engineer. Oh, well, it was still a good fight. But I have to agree with Collins that Dr. Ford was secondary in this procedure and I do feel bad for her but it was all that the Dems had to fight with. Her claims and nothing else.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 05 2018 at 14:34
Coming back to the Kavanaugh hearing itself, I thought this was an interesting video, if a bit trivial in the greater scheme:
I hadn't watched the original video of the hearing but this shows well what y'all meant with reagrds to his bad temper...
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 05 2018 at 14:44
^ Good video but Senators, although almost all Senators in the hearing are lawyers, they are not trial lawyers or criminal prosecutors. 

Edited by SteveG - October 05 2018 at 14:50
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2018 at 04:13
It seems a strange way to conduct an FBI investigation.

Look, there’s this serial killer that’s been on the loose for 30 years, and you’ve been given 1 month to find
him. All you’re allowed to do is talk directly to a small number of specified victims listed by us, and if they
don’t testify there’s only one conclusion: there is no serial killer. You are to ignore all graves waving flags
to get your attention. They are not relevant to this investigation for obvious reasons that we will not go into
at this point.

Can law enforcement really work like this and expect to maintain the public trust? The FBI can't be happy
about the perception of their work that this creates.

Monty Python could have made a sketch out of this without actually altering anything about it.


Edited by npjnpj - October 06 2018 at 04:16
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2018 at 04:59
Originally posted by npjnpj npjnpj wrote:

It seems a strange way to conduct an FBI investigation.

Look, there’s this serial killer that’s been on the loose for 30 years, and you’ve been given 1 month to find
him. All you’re allowed to do is talk directly to a small number of specified victims listed by us, and if they
don’t testify there’s only one conclusion: there is no serial killer. You are to ignore all graves waving flags
to get your attention. They are not relevant to this investigation for obvious reasons that we will not go into
at this point.

Can law enforcement really work like this and expect to maintain the public trust? The FBI can't be happy
about the perception of their work that this creates.

Monty Python could have made a sketch out of this without actually altering anything about it.

Except a serial killer would leave dead bodies in their wake.  We need either some evidence of the crime having happened (which is impossible without CCTV footage) or some corroboration from witnesses, from people who knew both the accuser and accused.  There was neither here.  There could have been other reasons not to vote Kavanaugh in but the lack of corroboration renders the sexual harassment/abuse claims a false flag at this point.  Whatever may have been Jeff Flake's motivation for giving in and allowing an FBI enquiry, allowing it will likely prove to be a political masterstroke.  He probably calculated that the odds of anything turning up against Kavanaugh after 36 years were remote and therefore it was best to allow it and appease women voters.  Not all of them will be appeased but I doubt all of them are going to buy the Democrat line that the investigation was a sham.  The worst is some may have even flipped Republican for a while to come, believing that Democrats were only interested in thwarting a Republican nominated judge and misused somebody's tragedy for said purpose.  That's probably why it's best not to declare upfront that you want to block the opposing party's nominee by hook or crook.  Because then if you happen to find a legit reason to do so later, you will not be easily believed. Mitch McConnell didn't fail to rub it in yesterday.


Edited by rogerthat - October 06 2018 at 05:04
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2018 at 05:05
Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Yeah, I saw Collins' nauseating speech on the floor of the Senate. Now we'll have to hear how low down and seedy the Dems are by the people who perfected the art of being s**m bags until the crack of doom. She even had the nerve of comparing Kavanaugh to Obama appointee Merrick Garland in both court decisions and temperament. That was rich. The guy the GOP refused to even consider for the Supreme Court. 



that was surprising I must admit...  perhaps I had too high an opinion of Susan.. considering more a rational than the typical Republican.. so yeah.. that was disappointing.

However I think she telegraphed her 2020 intent...  leaving the Senate for the Gov's mansion.. which means that is a blue pickup in 2020. 

Anyhow...  in the end it really doesn't matter about Kavanaugh.  It was a good fight, but just another example of how broken our system is.  In another age, a less broken time, he would not have been elevated.  We have been down this road before where judges were nominated who were found to have 'non judicial issues' in their past.. they were always withdrawn..  the notion that even if you diagreed with their judicial ideology you accepted that because they were at least honest, moral and with integrety.

the fact that he wasn't and is so divisive is proof enough that our system is really broken. Again nothing we haven't known, but it just made the leap from Capital Hill into our previously respected and trusted Supreme Court.

as was before is more true today.. the Conversatives were going to get that seat filled.. what is important and facinating is how this plays moving forward.. the midterms next month and does this increase the chance of the Dem's retaking the Senate... and the rapidly upcoming 2019-2020 Presidential primaries.  The conservatives won a battle here, but did they piss women and moderates off so badly they accelerated losing the war? We shall see...  
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2018 at 05:43
and the funny thing.. and this is more directed to you Steve...  is there are silver linings... the most obvious is his elevation is very highly likely to mean 2018 and especially 2020 see greater involvement and passion to see the Senate, and the Presidency flip... if the Dem's don't retake the Senate in 2018.. and they likely won't for the math was too much, they will in 2020 for that math is much MUCH more favorable.. on top of a Presidentail race when already will maximize the get out the vote.

as a note..  in less than 24 hours the PAC set up to win Collins's seat in 2020 has recieved more than 2 MILLION DOLLARS in donations.  Note that most Senators have a total campaign warchest of single digits millions. Her vote was, I do believe, done knowing she will not be facing reelection for that seat.  She was already likely facing a tough primary opponent from the right (don't forget her Obamacare vote) .. now knowing full well she was losing most non-Wynette women with that yes vote.. she knew going into that vote that a Yes vote wouldn't save her from the far right.. but lost any chance of crossover moderates and independents.  There has been a lot of talk about her and 2020. I think that Kavanaugh vote was a huge hint she does not plan to seek reelection in 2020.

but the one I really can see happening..  his elevation saves.. not dooms Roe v. Wade.  I really can see Roberts splitting and being the opposite swing vote for understanding the court now has a legitimacy problem and that case and a reversal would forever fracture the one thing he cares about passionately...  the integrity of the SCOTUS.  Thanks to Kavanaugh any reversal would not be seen in legal terms, but political ones and dont' tell me that it wouldn't if not for Kavanaugh, for as I said and most people do understand it even if one does not agree with it. There is a non political LEGAL basis for reversing it. However there is no chance in hell that legal viewpoint will be recognized with Kavanaugh on the court.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2018 at 06:01
and even if they did...  likely you'd see in 2020 with the Democrats very likely having what the Republicans having what they have now .. control of both houses and the Presidency...legislation passed making the right to choose Federal law.. thus removing the ambiguity that makes this such a back and forth legal issue. The Constitution obviously did not address it, nor has Congress.  I strongly suspect that might be one of the very first things on the Democratic agenda in 2021.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2018 at 06:25
It's possible that the GOP will leave such a pile of detritus that once the Democrats have inherited the mess, the Republicans will spin it so that it looks as if it had been caused by the Democrats. One election later, and the GOP will be back in power again.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2018 at 06:29
just thinking about these upcoming midterms.. reinforces what a disaster Trump has been.

for the Republican Party...

As I coined way back.. the very definition of 'catastrophic success'. Winning a battle so badly.. you lose the war.

instead of approaching a fillabuster proof majority in 2018 and likely holding the Senate for years.. not losing the AL seat and not picking up the  5 to 6 seats they would have.. they now risk losing it or simply breaking even and setting up on a platter the Democrats in 2020 to retake it when the math turns in their favor.

the House... gone...  that wouldn't have happened if HIllary had won... with the Republicans were energized to vote agasint her and her policies.

and tied into the House and perhaps the most disasterous part of this...  control of state legistlatures and Governorships.   for guess what comes in 2020... a census.. and redistricting... 

in winning short term power... the Republicans likely lost a chance to hold the Senate for years.. and may have lost the House for a decade or more...  

this on top of the electoral math which has been (the 2016 blip excempted) swinging decisively towards the Democrats..
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2018 at 06:43
Originally posted by npjnpj npjnpj wrote:

It's possible that the GOP will leave such a pile of detritus that once the Democrats have inherited the mess, the Republicans will spin it so that it looks as if it had been caused by the Democrats. One election later, and the GOP will be back in power again.

that overlooks a few fine details.. some of which i just spelled out.  And I did not even touch in that the continued decline of the 'angry white voter' as a share of the overall vote, nor the exodus of educated, suburban moderate voter/politician from the Republican Party. 

what you express is a reaction that would be regional.. rather than national...and they already hold those seats

which is why political forward thinkers see the Republican Party declining to a regional rump party.  Without outreach to women (hah) and minorities (HAH!) they are left with appeal to only the bible belt. Which loses the House, Senate and the Presidency. Unless the Republican Party moderates.. ie turns left... under Trump it has set fire to those bridges with those important constituancies and the only way they can appeal to them is to risk losing their core supporters.  ie ... career suicide for those who hold safe offices.  

and if I suspect happens in 2020.. that Democrats do play the economic card, not ID politics, and start listening to working class whites..  they eat signficantly into a base of what will be left of any sense of a national not regional Republican contituency.


Edited by micky - October 06 2018 at 06:46
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2018 at 06:46
I suppose so.
I can just imagine the bible belt ex-farmers living under bridges, passing around the brown paper bag, and saying: totally worth it.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2018 at 06:50
what do you think WalMart shopper does in Mississippi...  praise God for the GOP representing them keeping their country white and God primary and Guns aplenty... before they return to the trailer home and the junked out cars in the front lawn...
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2018 at 07:46
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

and the funny thing.. and this is more directed to you Steve...  is there are silver linings... the most obvious is his elevation is very highly likely to mean 2018 and especially 2020 see greater involvement and passion to see the Senate, and the Presidency flip... if the Dem's don't retake the Senate in 2018.. and they likely won't for the math was too much, they will in 2020 for that math is much MUCH more favorable.. on top of a Presidentail race when already will maximize the get out the vote.

as a note..  in less than 24 hours the PAC set up to win Collins's seat in 2020 has recieved more than 2 MILLION DOLLARS in donations.  Note that most Senators have a total campaign warchest of single digits millions. Her vote was, I do believe, done knowing she will not be facing reelection for that seat.  She was already likely facing a tough primary opponent from the right (don't forget her Obamacare vote) .. now knowing full well she was losing most non-Wynette women with that yes vote.. she knew going into that vote that a Yes vote wouldn't save her from the far right.. but lost any chance of crossover moderates and independents.  There has been a lot of talk about her and 2020. I think that Kavanaugh vote was a huge hint she does not plan to seek reelection in 2020.

but the one I really can see happening..  his elevation saves.. not dooms Roe v. Wade.  I really can see Roberts splitting and being the opposite swing vote for understanding the court now has a legitimacy problem and that case and a reversal would forever fracture the one thing he cares about passionately...  the integrity of the SCOTUS.  Thanks to Kavanaugh any reversal would not be seen in legal terms, but political ones and dont' tell me that it wouldn't if not for Kavanaugh, for as I said and most people do understand it even if one does not agree with it. There is a non political LEGAL basis for reversing it. However there is no chance in hell that legal viewpoint will be recognized with Kavanaugh on the court.
What really annoyed me about Collins' closing speech was the fact that it was so obviously staged for dramatic effect. She claimed to be undecided until the last minute and then closes with a speech full of numerous court decisions, statistical facts and a potpourri of scurrilous "facts" about Kavanaugh, the Dems and the judicial process in a speech which would have taken days to write by professional speech writers instead of the few hours that Collins had before speaking at the Senate. She stroked Trump's ego and by proxy exonerated him from his own sexual allegations while now claiming the that GOP were now the keepers of the moral high ground in order to brown nose McConnell. Sickening.

As far as Roe v Wade, that is somewhat secondary to the Right's insistence on limiting and restricting state's rights concerning abortions. And Kavanaugh is all for that.




Edited by SteveG - October 06 2018 at 07:47
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2018 at 07:54
Originally posted by micky micky wrote:

what do you think WalMart shopper does in Mississippi...  praise God for the GOP representing them keeping their country white and God primary and Guns aplenty... before they return to the trailer home and the junked out cars in the front lawn...
Yeah, but one man's poverty is another man's paradise! LOL
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2018 at 14:04
America died just now. Murdered by the fearful. The experiment is over, tomorrow begins a dark future of dreadful rule.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2018 at 14:43
As an outsider, I'm watching all this and wondering: dear God, as Americans, how can they stand this?

That's apparently what US women need: a good old-fashioned kick in the teeth. Good grief!
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2018 at 15:16
^ It's called democracy, look into it.

"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought."   -- John F. Kennedy
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2018 at 16:01
I beg to differ. It looks more like abuse of democracy to me.

Democracy does not mean: you elected us so we can do what we want until the next election, although it's undoubtedly and increasingly treated that way.


Edited by npjnpj - October 06 2018 at 16:04
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