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omphaloskepsis View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 14 2022 at 12:53
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday said that he has been informed that Russia will attack on Wednesday.

The comments from the Ukrainian leader, made in an address to his nation posted on Facebook, come amid heightened tensions between Kyiv and Moscow.

Russia has amassed more than 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border. The troop buildup had raised concerns among the U.S. and NATO allies that Russia is planning a military incursion, but Moscow has continually denied having any such plans.

Officials from Ukraine, Russia and NATO nations have engaged in diplomatic discussions for weeks with hopes of easing the tensions in the region but the conversations did not bear any breakthroughs.

Zelensky wrote in a statement on Facebook that Ukraine will hold a Day of Unity on Wednesday. He said the relevant decree has already been signed.

He said, "We are told that February 16 will be the day of the attack," according to a Facebook translation of his comments.

President Biden spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday, during which he warned that "swift and severe costs" would follow if Moscow invaded Ukraine.

Biden administration officials have warned that Ukraine could be invaded "any day now."


My personal view?  I don't think Russia will invade on Wednesday. I believe President Biden wants to start a war with Russia to gin up his poor polling numbers. I find the timing suspect... one day after Durham Report claims Clinton Campaign spied on Trump Tower and Trump (the sitting president).  I think America will initiate a "False Flag Provocation" to force Putin to respond in a military way. Or, Ukraine attacks East Ukraine. Putin claims that he has no intention of invading Ukraine.  

https://news.yahoo.com/zelensky-says-ukraine-informed-feb-190318842.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

https://news.yahoo.com/durham-tech-exec-working-clinton-145141701.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall


USA intelligence claims Russia moved military units into attack positions.  Of course, the White House provided zero evidence. Just their word. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-units-near-ukraine-moved-191224052.html




Edited by omphaloskepsis - February 14 2022 at 14:01
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 15 2022 at 03:02
If Washington says they will attack on Wednesday, they obviously won't. Biden's choice to be 'open' about the intelligence, is a change of tactic for the US, who would normally keep the intel under wraps. I guess being 'open' about it, removes Russia's element of surprise, should they decide to attack.

In any case, Russia has actually started pulling some forces back now, according to the BBC.

Putin/Lavrov are saying that diplomacy should still be pursued, but if they never had any plans to invade anyway (as they claim) then what is the diplomacy supposed to achieve? Avoid a war that wasn't going to happen anyway??

This is essentially an information war between Russia and the west, and also, I suspect a test of western responses to a mass build up of force. When their 'drills' are complete they may just pack up and go home. The west will claim a victory, saying Moscow backed down, but Moscow can simply say "We never planned to invade anyway. We were only holding exercises, like we do every year. You guys chose to create hysteria"

There's still the matter of Moscow's security demands though...
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 15 2022 at 12:32
Originally posted by Blacksword Blacksword wrote:

If Washington says they will attack on Wednesday, they obviously won't. Biden's choice to be 'open' about the intelligence, is a change of tactic for the US, who would normally keep the intel under wraps. I guess being 'open' about it, removes Russia's element of surprise, should they decide to attack.

In any case, Russia has actually started pulling some forces back now, according to the BBC.

Putin/Lavrov are saying that diplomacy should still be pursued, but if they never had any plans to invade anyway (as they claim) then what is the diplomacy supposed to achieve? Avoid a war that wasn't going to happen anyway??

This is essentially an information war between Russia and the west, and also, I suspect a test of western responses to a mass build up of force. When their 'drills' are complete they may just pack up and go home. The west will claim a victory, saying Moscow backed down, but Moscow can simply say "We never planned to invade anyway. We were only holding exercises, like we do every year. You guys chose to create hysteria"

There's still the matter of Moscow's security demands though...

I see the biggest problem in the general total lack of knowledge of each other's culture, mentality, traditions, views, and even history. OK, I do not mean us here. Here we have smart ladies and gentlemen who know a lot and want to know even more. 

But, even speaking of such an insignificant issue as cartoons for children, many foreigners have no idea of the Soviet cartoons. The USSR certainly produced much less cartoons than the Americans, not every Soviet cartoon was of a decent quality. But there were like 50 or so Soviet cartoons that became instant classic. 

There were two episodes of (a very free retelling of) The Bremen Town Musicians, indeed a musical in two parts, with memorable melodies and lyrics full of wordplay and really reasonable lines (in Russian): 

Here's part one with English translation



Here's part two with English translation



Other than the troubadour and the princess wearing all red, and the clear anti-monarchist (and anti-establishment) message, this was not a pro-communist or somehow political work of art. 


There was a three-episode series about Winnie the Pooh, also dear to many foreigners now when it is available to them: 

here is it with English dubbing




The Iron Curtain, it's understandable why the foreigners could not watch it - but why in the world the Soviet government did not translate all of those in English, French, Italian, Spanish, Dutch?! Why nowadays foreigners have to be amazed to see that the USSR was not only about direct political propaganda, that there were numerous works of art that were so indirectly Soviet, one should try very hard to see the traits of indirect propaganda behind the picture. 

Neither of the sides (sure, we're not speaking of Ukraine here, the sides are the USA/UK/France/Capitalist-Germany and Russia/USSR) used to know much about each other. Unfortunately, neither of the side's governments were really interested in ending the Cold War. Too many people benefit from it. 

Take Ronald Reagan. As I've heard, he believed no Communists in the USSR were baptized in Christianity. Well, we now know that even Putin was baptized thanks to his mother - by the way, he was baptized by the father of the current leader of Russian Orthodox Christian Church. Vasily Chuikov, the legend of Stalingrad Battle, held a small paper icon in his passport as is evidenced by his relatives. Georgy Zhukov, famous WW2 commander seemed to be a religious person as we now know. Gagarin once made a speech about preserving the old Russian churches, not destroying them. Gagarin was definitely a Communist. Mr. Reagan had vague views of the whole thing. He did not notice shades, he just saw a hammer and a sickle and a red banner - the same as in China and North Korea. Did Ronald Reagan watch any Soviet cartoons or many Soviet comedies (apart from Oscar-winning Moscow Does Not Believe In Tears)? How much of the Soviet poetry or literature did he read? Unlike the ordinary Americans he was able to find them in translated form or request for the translations... Did he need them?

When the adversaries do not really know each other, what's the use of a boxing match? To beat the opponent fairly you must know him first. It applies to both sides of the conflict. I can easily tell you what images appear in an average Russian or Ukrainian mind when, for example, the modern day Netherlands are mentioned: legalised drugs of all kinds, female prostitutes, perverts of all kinds. Being not a Dutch I can easily TRY to describe what images an AVERAGE Dutch person has in mind when Russia is mentioned: vodka, criminals, KGB. How can a fair discussion be possible with such stereotypical views on both sides? 


Edited by Woon Deadn - February 15 2022 at 12:55
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 15 2022 at 14:24
Originally posted by Blacksword Blacksword wrote:

If Washington says they will attack on Wednesday, they obviously won't. Biden's choice to be 'open' about the intelligence, is a change of tactic for the US, who would normally keep the intel under wraps. I guess being 'open' about it, removes Russia's element of surprise, should they decide to attack.

In any case, Russia has actually started pulling some forces back now, according to the BBC.

Putin/Lavrov are saying that diplomacy should still be pursued, but if they never had any plans to invade anyway (as they claim) then what is the diplomacy supposed to achieve? Avoid a war that wasn't going to happen anyway??

This is essentially an information war between Russia and the west, and also, I suspect a test of western responses to a mass build up of force. When their 'drills' are complete they may just pack up and go home. The west will claim a victory, saying Moscow backed down, but Moscow can simply say "We never planned to invade anyway. We were only holding exercises, like we do every year. You guys chose to create hysteria"

There's still the matter of Moscow's security demands though...

A few days ago I saw somebody (I think a Russian journalist living in the west) saying that there is a tradition that the Russians do something to "test" an new American president to see what they can get away with. One way of doing this is to put so much military close to the border that it looks like a preparation for war, and see what happens. They can use it to win some concessions which may work or not, but anyway, whatever happens they can easily walk away from it claiming that they never had anything evil in mind.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 15 2022 at 20:28
I can't help but feel like Putin is playing the "West" like a fiddle. Maybe that's his go-to strategy and we can't help but respond as he (and all of the rest of us) know we'll respond. An actual land war invasion in Europe? Preposterous (!....?) Even the Balkan situation was inter-ethnic, not from outside. Is it *conceivable* that something like that could happen? Sure, but we can't keep looking back to 70 years ago. That's a lifetime. Again, nothing is impossible, but Putin is a ridiculously cunning and incredibly smart leader. He is playing the hand Russia holds so well, assuming power and Western concessions are his goal (why wouldn't they be?).

Then again, this all assumes history is predictable and leaders and states are rational.

 ---Freud plunges a clawed hand from the grave, poised to rise up and show us our folly in assuming we know human nature---

Maybe we just can never know the motives of those with power and authority to act on the world stage. All we can do is try.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 16 2022 at 07:14
Originally posted by Lewian Lewian wrote:

Originally posted by Blacksword Blacksword wrote:

If Washington says they will attack on Wednesday, they obviously won't. Biden's choice to be 'open' about the intelligence, is a change of tactic for the US, who would normally keep the intel under wraps. I guess being 'open' about it, removes Russia's element of surprise, should they decide to attack.

In any case, Russia has actually started pulling some forces back now, according to the BBC.

Putin/Lavrov are saying that diplomacy should still be pursued, but if they never had any plans to invade anyway (as they claim) then what is the diplomacy supposed to achieve? Avoid a war that wasn't going to happen anyway??

This is essentially an information war between Russia and the west, and also, I suspect a test of western responses to a mass build up of force. When their 'drills' are complete they may just pack up and go home. The west will claim a victory, saying Moscow backed down, but Moscow can simply say "We never planned to invade anyway. We were only holding exercises, like we do every year. You guys chose to create hysteria"

There's still the matter of Moscow's security demands though...

A few days ago I saw somebody (I think a Russian journalist living in the west) saying that there is a tradition that the Russians do something to "test" an new American president to see what they can get away with. One way of doing this is to put so much military close to the border that it looks like a preparation for war, and see what happens. They can use it to win some concessions which may work or not, but anyway, whatever happens they can easily walk away from it claiming that they never had anything evil in mind.

When you, people from the West who sure speak, write and read English on an expert level (and know what's life really like in your parts of the globe) read my messages, you sure see from my texts that I pretend very hard to sound like an expert English writer and an expert in all the details of your countries' actualities, but I sure fail in my pretendings. It is obvious that I don't have full knowledge of English language and even more so of your lives and the lives of your countries. 

It shocks me, though, to realize that even some people who at least were born to Russian families, spent some time in Russia, speak pretty perfect Russian - those people often have limited (if not extremely limited) knowledge of the former USSR where they were born and Russia where they lived. 

Speaking of the journalists' opinions, there's a seemingly erudite female journalist Julia Ioffe who often writes and speaks in English, explaining the irregularities and mistakes of Russia to the western audiences. 
Nearly ten years ago she wrote an article about her life in Moscow where she has mentioned the strange Russian expression "speaking truth to the uterus"... After reading that line I've lost any interest in reading the article further. There's a Russian word-combination pravda-matka, where pravda as we all probably know means "truth" and matka in modern Russian usually means "womb". However, those with decent knowledge of the language also know that in modern Russian matka also means a queen bee or a queen ant. In the Polish language matka means "mother"... It looks like in very Old Russian, matka might also mean "mother"... In any case, where's the dative case in the word-combination "pravda-matka"? Where's that "to the" part that Julia mentioned? Even following her logics that matka means womb and only womb, there must be "telling the truth-womb", "telling the womb-truth". In reality, pravda-matka rather means "mother-truth", "mother-of-all-truths" and it is obvious to any Russian speaker. If a journalist have no idea of such rather casual, usual things - why should I believe her in more serious questions? What else she did not understand in Russia and Russians? 

So, you know, I used to be afraid of journalists. Sometimes they may be right...


Edited by Woon Deadn - February 16 2022 at 07:16
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2022 at 11:31
I don't like American everyday late night shows, simply because I am not able to understand most of their humour or satire. I am a man born in the Soviet Union, raised by the Soviet engineers Smile

I must note, though, sometimes they say some truth. Like here where Trevor Noah at least mentioned there are some Neo-Nazis in Ukraine who play some active role in the confrontation against Russia. Mr. Biden seems to never mention that fact, at all... Yes, you may notice a very-well-known Nazi sign of Wolfsangel right on the formation patch on the shoulder of the Ukrainian soldier... The Ukrainian far-right used to say it represents the first letters of "Idea of the Nation" - IN - but mysteriously, it also looks quite like a Nazi sign.



Speaking of the doping at sport events, I almost have no doubt that practically every country of the sports-scale of Russia uses doping for its sportsmen en masse - but some animals happen to be more equal than the others in the eyes of the respective organisations. Or some animals are more inventive. 
(Certainly, RT is Russia Today, and they are more or less a Russian propaganda channel. Still... they also may be right. At least sometimes)




As for the Nazis involved in the Euromaidan and post-Euromaidan activities in Ukraine 

 

On the backs of the soldiers in the last video you can see the inscription in Ukrainian: "Ukrayina ponad use", that is - "Ukraine above all", that is "Ukraine uber alles"... You can also hear those words at the very end of the last video.


Edited by Woon Deadn - February 20 2022 at 11:32
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2022 at 13:16
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2022 at 13:53
Do you still believe no way will Russia ever invade Ukraine? Your recent postings seem to deliver some reasons why she might do it, and elsewhere in the news we hear that this is exactly what Russia is looking for.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2022 at 15:07
Originally posted by Lewian Lewian wrote:

Do you still believe no way will Russia ever invade Ukraine? Your recent postings seem to deliver some reasons why she might do it, and elsewhere in the news we hear that this is exactly what Russia is looking for.
 

Russia is playing its illogical irrational games. I don't see any threat in them, at all. I'm not sure, it's chess - it must be something Pythonesque, a Terry Gilliam's sort of chess. It's like two cars rushing towards each other - if the USA doesn't steer away in the last moment, Russia would simply turn to the meta level and thus there would be no collision. The American car is built on a solid material foundation, it is perfect for going on earthly ground. The Russian car is all muddy, broken, fractured, partitioned, inefficient, mostly sneezes and sniffles than walks forward - but the Russian car runs fast in the alternative reality. Russia is halfly earthly, halfly outside of this world. 

The Russian comic singer-songwriter Semyon Slepakov recently made a song about pros and cons of vaccination against Covid. The song is called Ili nyet - "Or no(t)". Its title and lyrics in Russian perfectly describe the eternal Russian uncertainty. Uncertainty in pretty everything. The characters of the song as is shown in the video, do not even know whether Putin really got vaccinated or not. He said he was and the TV showed some frames but the very frames of the syringe shot were not shown on TV, they say in the video/song. This is the quintessential Russian song! Big smile "Should it all be done that way - or not?.."




However, when the problem touches the foreign countries, when there's a risk of a nuclear war, of Third World War - there's no uncertainty. Russian uncertainty is for internal deeds and deals. Outside of the country everything is very clear. 


Edited by Woon Deadn - February 20 2022 at 15:15
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2022 at 16:53
Originally posted by Woon Deadn Woon Deadn wrote:

Originally posted by Lewian Lewian wrote:

Do you still believe no way will Russia ever invade Ukraine? Your recent postings seem to deliver some reasons why she might do it, and elsewhere in the news we hear that this is exactly what Russia is looking for.
 

Russia is playing its illogical irrational games. I don't see any threat in them, at all. I'm not sure, it's chess - it must be something Pythonesque, a Terry Gilliam's sort of chess. It's like two cars rushing towards each other - if the USA doesn't steer away in the last moment, Russia would simply turn to the meta level and thus there would be no collision. The American car is built on a solid material foundation, it is perfect for going on earthly ground. The Russian car is all muddy, broken, fractured, partitioned, inefficient, mostly sneezes and sniffles than walks forward - but the Russian car runs fast in the alternative reality. Russia is halfly earthly, halfly outside of this world. 

The Russian comic singer-songwriter Semyon Slepakov recently made a song about pros and cons of vaccination against Covid. The song is called Ili nyet - "Or no(t)". Its title and lyrics in Russian perfectly describe the eternal Russian uncertainty. Uncertainty in pretty everything. The characters of the song as is shown in the video, do not even know whether Putin really got vaccinated or not. He said he was and the TV showed some frames but the very frames of the syringe shot were not shown on TV, they say in the video/song. This is the quintessential Russian song! Big smile "Should it all be done that way - or not?.."




However, when the problem touches the foreign countries, when there's a risk of a nuclear war, of Third World War - there's no uncertainty. Russian uncertainty is for internal deeds and deals. Outside of the country everything is very clear. 

Excellent metaphor Woon.
 One of the unspoken reasons that Biden beats the war drums? Americans watch Wall to Wall media coverage of a border incursion thousands of miles away. Meanwhile, nary a peep at what Trudeau is doing with the anti-mandate Trucker protests.  Ironically, Trudeau is double jabbed, boostered, and he still catches covid, yet Trudeau forces Truckers (who spend 14 hours alone in a Truck cap) to get vaccines and vaccine passports. The Truckers have made it clear that they are not anti-vaccine...They are anti-mandate and passport.

America, Canada, and UK withdrew their personnel from Ukraine embassies. All other countries stayed put. Europe and China's embassies are staffed.  Biden, Trudeau, and Boris Johnson's polling numbers are at-or-near the lowest of their tenures. 

Nordstream 2?  American Elites won't give up this fight without destroying Nordstream 2 pipeline deal. (Nordstream 2 is proposed gas pipeline from Russia to Germany)  American Elites do NOT want Russia to establish a close relationship with Germany.

 I predict that Nordstream 2 is deep sixed.  Meanwhile America will NOT sanction Russia with SWIFT banking system.  Over the last decade, use of American dollar in oil/gas European transactions has dropped from over 70% to less than 60%.  Nordstream 2 would quicken this trend. 




Edited by omphaloskepsis - February 20 2022 at 17:43
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2022 at 17:42
My, all's quiet on the Russian front here. What, no more imbecilic comments from Putin's pals on this forum? Nothing to say about "Russian peacekeepers" invading the Ukraine? Silent about Putin's Hitleresque speech? 
Is it still just a game for you? There are no "false flags" -- Russia's intention have been clear since they illegally and forcibly took the Crimean Peninsula. 



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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2022 at 01:51
Originally posted by The Dark Elf The Dark Elf wrote:

My, all's quiet on the Russian front here. What, no more imbecilic comments from Putin's pals on this forum? Nothing to say about "Russian peacekeepers" invading the Ukraine? Silent about Putin's Hitleresque speech? 
Is it still just a game for you? There are no "false flags" -- Russia's intention have been clear since they illegally and forcibly took the Crimean Peninsula. 

It’s not a case of being Putin’s pals, so much as recognising that he and Russia are hardly the bad guys here - or, at least, if they are, they are not alone. This situation has been created not by Putin, so much as by the West (particularly the US and UK).

Nothing that has happened in the last day is surprising - and nor is it counter to any of the “imbecilic comments” you criticise. Putin doesn’t want a war, and doesn’t want to invade Ukraine - at least not in the manner that the West understands, thanks to the Western media. The “imbecilic comments” have attempted to give context and understanding, that some are clearly still not willing to accept. A full scale invasion of the Ukraine has been unthinkable for all the reasons given in this thread, and there are still not fuel or munition dumps in place that would allow such an invasion.

Putin has made the move he was always going to make. He's effectively annexed enough of Ukraine that they can't give it up, and thereby paralyzed their geopolitical situation - just like he did in Georgia. They can't fight back and they can't move on, and either way NATO won't touch them now. He's poisoned the well and got his plan-B buffer state, and gets to look measured and conservative enough - compared to what he got the world to fantasize darkly about - to give everyone (except Ukraine) a way to declare "nothing new here" and de-escalate. Expert manipulation of the narrative: to look strong/prudent at home, and maintain a threatening ambiguity ambiguity abroad, while clawing back a geopolitical consolation prize. Russia is ringed now with broken states crippled by frozen conflicts... except for the Baltic states of course (stay tuned).

The two “independent states” that Russia is now “peacekeepers” for had the way pa Ed for this incursion in 2014. Russia, Ukraine, and the West have all known this was on the cards since then, and that it was a matter of when, rather than if. But the West did not consider it their problem. This whole situation now could possibly have been avoided if the West intervened initially - but it was not in the interests of the UK or US to do so at that time. So Putin surrounded the Ukraine with troops on exercises to make it look like he was ready for war and full-scale invasion. The “imbecilic comments” have explained why this was never going to be played out in the way the Western media has portrayed it.

I am not a Putin sympathiser, not a Russian propaganda bot, but there are far more nuances to this situation that most believe. The “imbecilic comments” were an attempt to give another side of the story. I am not naive enough to not recognise there is a strong bias in those comments, but that bias alone does not make them imbecilic. It is pretty much impossible to read any newspaper in the UK, if one does not recognise its inherent bias. But so long as you can recognise that, it is possible to work out what the truth is behind the spin. The truth here is that Putin, if not innocent, is definitely not the only guilty party - and the UK and the US are as complicit as Russia in allowing what has happened, to happen. There was an air of inevitability about it, that has been hanging around for almost a decade now. The only surprise is that it’s taken this long for the “peacekeepers” to enter.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2022 at 03:02
Basically, they have invaded Ukraine.

I was wrong. I didn't think they would. No one is buying the 'peace keeping' line, and even if this is not the prelude to a wider invasion, the days ahead and going to be dark. The sanctions that the west hit Russia with will be significant, and will impact on us all ultimately. If we're lucky, Europe will blackout and our economies tank badly. If we're unlucky, the Russians will go full octane and take Kiev. There will be a huge refugee crisis and a heightened risk of the conflict spreading to Ukraines neighbours, most of whom are NATO member states.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2022 at 03:51
^Yes, yes, they have. But, and it’s a big but as far as I’m concerned (along with that of some Ukrainian friends I have), it’s an invasion that has been on the cards since 2014. The West’s inaction since then has left a certain inevitability about this. I am not suggesting that I agree that the two Ukrainian regions are separatist, and wish to be either independent of both Ukraine and Russia, or to be part of Russia rather than Ukraine. Merely that they have effectively been groomed for this invasion.

There is still no indication of any full scale invasion/war against Ukraine, and I would like to still believe this won’t happen. That doesn’t mean what Russia has done here is right. But at this point they have no need to further invade Ukraine.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2022 at 03:57
Originally posted by nick_h_nz nick_h_nz wrote:

Originally posted by The Dark Elf The Dark Elf wrote:

My, all's quiet on the Russian front here. What, no more imbecilic comments from Putin's pals on this forum? Nothing to say about "Russian peacekeepers" invading the Ukraine? Silent about Putin's Hitleresque speech? 
Is it still just a game for you? There are no "false flags" -- Russia's intention have been clear since they illegally and forcibly took the Crimean Peninsula. 

It’s not a case of being Putin’s pals, so much as recognising that he and Russia are hardly the bad guys here - or, at least, if they are, they are not alone. This situation has been created not by Putin, so much as by the West (particularly the US and UK).

Nothing that has happened in the last day is surprising - and nor is it counter to any of the “imbecilic comments” you criticise. Putin doesn’t want a war, and doesn’t want to invade Ukraine - at least not in the manner that the West understands, thanks to the Western media. The “imbecilic comments” have attempted to give context and understanding, that some are clearly still not willing to accept. A full scale invasion of the Ukraine has been unthinkable for all the reasons given in this thread, and there are still not fuel or munition dumps in place that would allow such an invasion.

Putin has made the move he was always going to make. He's effectively annexed enough of Ukraine that they can't give it up, and thereby paralyzed their geopolitical situation - just like he did in Georgia. They can't fight back and they can't move on, and either way NATO won't touch them now. He's poisoned the well and got his plan-B buffer state, and gets to look measured and conservative enough - compared to what he got the world to fantasize darkly about - to give everyone (except Ukraine) a way to declare "nothing new here" and de-escalate. Expert manipulation of the narrative: to look strong/prudent at home, and maintain a threatening ambiguity ambiguity abroad, while clawing back a geopolitical consolation prize. Russia is ringed now with broken states crippled by frozen conflicts... except for the Baltic states of course (stay tuned).

The two “independent states” that Russia is now “peacekeepers” for had the way pa Ed for this incursion in 2014. Russia, Ukraine, and the West have all known this was on the cards since then, and that it was a matter of when, rather than if. But the West did not consider it their problem. This whole situation now could possibly have been avoided if the West intervened initially - but it was not in the interests of the UK or US to do so at that time. So Putin surrounded the Ukraine with troops on exercises to make it look like he was ready for war and full-scale invasion. The “imbecilic comments” have explained why this was never going to be played out in the way the Western media has portrayed it.

I am not a Putin sympathiser, not a Russian propaganda bot, but there are far more nuances to this situation that most believe. The “imbecilic comments” were an attempt to give another side of the story. I am not naive enough to not recognise there is a strong bias in those comments, but that bias alone does not make them imbecilic. It is pretty much impossible to read any newspaper in the UK, if one does not recognise its inherent bias. But so long as you can recognise that, it is possible to work out what the truth is behind the spin. The truth here is that Putin, if not innocent, is definitely not the only guilty party - and the UK and the US are as complicit as Russia in allowing what has happened, to happen. There was an air of inevitability about it, that has been hanging around for almost a decade now. The only surprise is that it’s taken this long for the “peacekeepers” to enter.

 

I don't think, I am a Putin sympathiser. I prefer wiser people than him, more intelligent, more post-modernist-thinking. But I have always hated bullying, hazing, stalking, that kind of things. Putting labels on a human being looks quite like a dog pissing on a human being to mark him/her as the dog's property... Unless we are dogs (and even dogs typically do not piss on humans, only on inanimate objects), it is better to stay moderate in such conversations. 

Again, such claims about "imbecilic comments" are made because of the lines of stereotypes and/or simplified statements that haunted both sides of the Cold War for centuries. Let's not forget that it all has begun since the Great Schism 1,000 years ago when the Eastern Orthodox Christian Church(es) and Roman Catholic Church ultimately went apart. For the westerner there's only one known Christian world's war: Catholics vs Protestants. In the Slavic lands, though, there was another neverending battle: Orthodox vs Catholics. In real world it meant Serbia vs Croatia and Russia vs Poland. Do not underestimate the geopolitical value and consequences of that confrontation. 

Later on, there was a fight for the East - hence the UK vs Russian Empire. I am not going to judge which country was more just, more civilised - after all, even Helena Blavatsky when she lived in the UK (where probably felt more comfortable than in Orthodox Christian Russia), once wrote an article or so on how the English mass opinion incorrectly blamed Russia for different cases of injustice, while as she wrote, Russian judicial system was in many cases much more civilised and humane than the British one (for example, concerning women after divorce). Was Madame Blavatsky a sympathiser of the Russian monarchy? No, she simply was an honest person. She was an honest person and honestly pointed out at the distorted vision of Russia in the West. 

Again, when the host of the western mass media show pronounces, "Putin is KGB man" - it only affects, scares an average western citizen. It doesn't anyhow affect an average former citizen of the former USSR. Here, people on average just may say, "Well, he had got a decent job. Earned decent money. Had a nervous yet exciting life. Had many useful connections". Simply, for a westerner, the whole USSR equals Stalin era (specifically, pre-WW2 Stalin era) - for the former Soviet citizen, the USSR traditionally equals Brezhnev era. Brezhnev did not participate in Stalin's repressions, Brezhnev was a narrow-minded yet friendly man. By the way, during Stalin's reign, secret service was called differently. It was called KGB after Stalin's death. 

Borders between the 15 Soviet Republics were drawn pretty much like the borders drawn by the western nations in the Asian and African world... The USSR was meant to exist forever, so the fact that the Crimea was gifted to Ukraine from Russia did not really mean anything. Similarly, it has happened so that South Ossetia and North Ossetia were given to different republics of the USSR. Was it made on purpose? Most likely, yes. Most likely, it was a Leninist-Stalinist policy. Again, Stalin died in 1953... The borders have remained the same, but the people's feelings, people's self-appreciation have changed since the first half of the 20th century. 

Speaking of Ukraine. Ukraine is slightly smaller than Texas. In Europe it is rather a big size for the country. Ukraine definitely consists of various patches, very different from each other. And, as I have already written here earlier, it's not quite a question of language to speak. Simply, some Ukrainians used to perceive themselves as the part of some vague Russian Empire in any form - some Ukrainians used to perceive themselves as the part of some vague West Europe. Sure, everybody wants to live happily, have a decent job, have a family (or at least, a sexual partnerBig smile), et al. But you can't just burn off the inner beliefs that the people have. I am not an expert in Belgium, but to me it looks like the same: part of the country speaks Dutch (ok, Flemish), part of the country speaks French, France is undoubtedly more influential country in the modern world than the Netherlands. So, in result, Belgium hosts some important headquarters and all in all the state's power (I hope so) is doing its best at keeping the balance. I suppose, in Belgium it's also not quite a question of language they're speaking - there're also different traditions that came from different cultures. 

Again, many foreigners seem to underestimate the Euromaidan. I remember how Obama once put Ukraine's and Venezuela's unrests in one line, saying that the people in Venezuela and Ukraine stood for democracy, et al. Well, the thing is that Ukraine was light years richer and more developed than Venezuela - before and during and after Euromaidan. I can easily understand why the people in Venezuela used to protest a lot. It is simply a terribly poor country. But, man, I remember reading an article in Ukrainian newspaper in the 2000s that there were 1,000,000 private cars officially registered in Kiev, and it was the mid-2000s. For the population of 3,5 mln it was not a shocking but indeed a very good number. 
Euromaidan was not such a univocal event as many foreigners used to think. Many Ukrainians did not like it, did not support it, did not want it to win. After it's won, many Ukrainians felt deeply offended. Because, again, there are more monolithic, monoethnic nations like Poland or Czech Republic or Estonia where you surely know that if there are Russians living there, they moved there not so long ago, they are more like guests, immigrants. Ukraine is composed of patches, the population of those patches-regions lived there for centuries, or at least actively married the citizens of the neighbouring countries (which WAS certainly not the case for countries like Poland or Estonia where ethnical belonging mattered a lot), or at least was somehow related to the citizens of the neighbouring countries. That's one continuum, language continuum, cultural continuum, national identification continuum. Euromaidan was practically unianimously 90+% supported in the Western Ukraine - therefore, in practice, it means that one part-patch of Ukraine is kinda considered true Ukrainians, keepers of the true Ukrainian spirit now. While the rest of Ukraine is kinda of a lower sort. Even if it's somehow universally correct, even if the Western Ukrainians are universally right and true and whatever, you can't talk to the people in such terms in the 21st century. Even if somebody is really wrong, it is not the 21st century behaviour to just say, "You are wrong, you are an idiot 'cause you did not support our values, our views - so, do what we tell you 'cause we are right". There are adult people on both sides of the conflict. They have to be listened to on both sides of the conflict. 

The Crimea (especially, the city of Sevastopol) and the Donbas region were the most pro-Russian and pro-Soviet in Ukraine in the Soviet times and after. They supported Euromaidan protests the least. They were the most Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine. Even in the Soviet times each oblast (province) of Ukraine published its main newspaper of the province in Ukrainian language - all oblasts but Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea ones. Those three provinces published their main provincial newspapers only in Russian. 

If Putin recognized the separatist "republics" it may only mean Russia can officially move its troops there. It's not a full-scale invasion, it's a very local conflict in those controversial areas.

I personally have never said that I want somebody "to liberate me, us, Ukraine". I don't need any Russian troops "to liberate me". They are not going "to liberate Ukraine". There's a local conflict in one of the regions, the region that is not representative of the whole Ukraine. The conflict is the direct consequence of Euromaidan. Russian troops used to be present in the separatist Donbas republics unofficially - now they can potentially be present there officially. What's the real difference then?

Which doesn't mean I justify Russia's or West's behaviour. All sides are wrong here. All sides have little knowledge of real each other. All sides heavily rely on prejudices and stereotypes. 


Edited by Woon Deadn - February 22 2022 at 05:11
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2022 at 03:57
It's the largest military build-up in Europe since World War II. Think about how much money it costs to mobilize that many troops. This is far from over. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2022 at 04:14
Originally posted by progaardvark progaardvark wrote:

It's the largest military build-up in Europe since World War II. Think about how much money it costs to mobilize that many troops. This is far from over. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail.

Amen to that!
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2022 at 05:34
I thought the Cold War was over. Silly me.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2022 at 07:21
Originally posted by nick_h_nz nick_h_nz wrote:

Putin doesn’t want a war, and doesn’t want to invade Ukraine
(...)
There is still no indication of any full scale invasion/war against Ukraine, and I would like to still believe this won’t happen. That doesn’t mean what Russia has done here is right. But at this point they have no need to further invade Ukraine.

Yet Putin's rhetoric regarding Ukraine as an independent state and the Zelensky government suggest otherwise. Interesting how you believe you can read Putin's mind on this one. 
I didn't want to believe he'd invade, but the way his actions and rhetoric have played out in the meantime have changed my mind.
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