Russia/Ukraine tensions - Any concern?

Woon Deadn wrote: Davesax1965 wrote: To understand Russia. Russia is gigantic. Since early days, when the capital of Russia was actually in Kiev (now Kyiv, in Ukraine), Russia was a collection of uncontrollable fiefdoms. Local leaders could do what they wanted, the capital was a long way away and everything could be obscured, obfuscated or just ignored. Same attitude existed for centuries.  There have been certain historical figures such as Yuri Dolgorukiy ("George the long handed") who could control various outposts of the empire. One of the most effective Tsars was Ivan IV - "Ivan the terrible".  As an example, when it was suspected that the city of Novgorod was going to defect to Poland / Lithuania, Ivan had the city's inhabitants massacred. I seem to recall large numbers were tied to rafts and pushed into the frozen river.  Monster, you may think, but Ivan was regarded as a strong leader who could control large swathes of Russia.  The same thing happens with Stalin. Stalin, 400 years later, is a fairly dull "grey eminence" or nonentity of a man. He doesn't really have a personality other than that which he's learnt from Russian history, so he impersonates - amongst other people - Ivan IV. "This is how a Tsar behaves". You can count in his adoption of policies such as banishing prisoners to far flung parts of Russia and also having a large secretive police force.... that's how it's done, that's how it's always been done. The Tsars before him had similar systems in place. Then along comes Putin and........... it's exactly the same, it will always be the same, Russia will never fundamentally change, not with even another revolution, which will never happen.  That's what Russia is.    Though, I must add, things got better a bit. Ivan IV went over the limits with his theatrical inventiveness in killing and torturing people that were not guilty of anything. Stalin definitely saw himself as another Ivan IV, though for the most part he at least pretended to punish those who were guilty of something. But Putin, I think, rather sees himself as a combination of Vladimir the Great, Alexander Nevsky, Peter the Great, Catherine the Great and some of the later ones like Nicholas I or Alexander III. Indeed, the odd yet evident triad of Vladimir the Great - Vladimir Lenin - Vladimir Putin comes to mind to everyone who knows Russian history.  Putin would hardly like to torture or kill an occasional person who just, you know, he saw from the window of his car or something like that. Stalin imprisoned even his closest ones, the wife of Molotov was imprisoned for a long time. I don't think that Putin would like the idea to send into prison a wife of Dmitry Peskov or Sergey Lavrov or Dmitry Medvedev - just in case. Times change. Slowly, but unidirectionally.  To me it is also clear that certainly Putin and his team are not Communists in the leastest least possible. They have some nostalgia - like many of their compatriots. But they certainly do not want to return to it. Also, I don't think they want a pain in their arses in the form of depressive, poor Central Asian countries or ever-anti-Russian Baltic countries. They probably want to incorporate most of Ukraine, whole or most of Belarus. Certainly, they do not have any plans about having Norway or Finland or Poland.  I see very clearly that the people in this thread from the former or present day empires of some kind usually look at the question in a more relaxed way. Those who are from the smaller or simply small non-imperial countries usually feel nervous. That's pretty expectable and normal. If somebody was insulted by my former parallels of small countries being small dogs, I may say that the imperial ones may be compared to large breeds of dogs then. I personally am fond of ligers. All ligers that I watched on YT were thoroughly relaxed... Usual pet cats are much more nervous. If you are from the UK you see the picture more chillingly than if you are living in the Netherlands. That's normal.

Yep, I think that's absolutely true about Putin and also about the fact that he and his apparatchiks are nothing to do with Communism at all. Really, I see him as being a new form of Tsar, with all the same mistakes as all the old Tsars before him (although perhaps there will be no mass starvations this time.)

I hadn't thought about pan Slavism operating in a way to avoid the Baltic states, and it's certainly not going to involve any of the -stans (although perhaps Kazakhstan would be useful) - but it's in the pro-Moscow circle enough. Georgia, to an extent, the same thing. So - no point expanding East, the -stans are useless, Afghanistan is still a no (and always will be) - more trouble than it's worth - you can't really go into the Baltic states without starting a war, Belarus is in your pocket anyway.......

Just out of curiosity, not because I'd have any clear opinion about this: You really think Russian  engagement in Western Ukraine brings Putin a popularity boost? Why should ordinary Russians be bothered? What do they win from conflict there? (The argument is probably something like Russian pride, demonstrating that we're great and strong etc... I doubt that this plays a role in many daily lives though.)


Edited by Lewian - December 22 2021 at 04:00

Lewian wrote: I have heard such things from other countries, too. Nationalist rhetoric yes, actually being asked for sacrifices and being killed for the glorious nation: Not so much.

Thats pretty much the US in a nutshell. I have seen it many times. The government bangs the drums of nationalism and the public gets all macho and ready to fight, but when their sons and daughters start coming home in body bags they back off very quickly. This cycle is very predictable by now.

I sure may be wrong, but I firmly believe and know and think that the last time Russia wanted to invade some European or American country it was before World War 2. There was, for example, a Soviet movie The Great Citizen that in fact offered an idealised biography of Sergey Kirov (the Party leader whose death officially caused the Great Purge of 1937-38) filmed in 1938. There was a scene in the movie where the protagonist talked to the big audience telling them that "after a good war, in say it 20 years or so the USSR would consist of 30-40 republics" (instead of 10+ ones existing at the time of the speech)... Later on, the scene would be cut from the movie forever... Here's that scene, without a translation, unfortunately. Even without a translation you can see how enthusiastic the audience was about the words of a good war...

Edited by Woon Deadn - December 22 2021 at 11:06

Woon Deadn - Soviet joke. 

Stalin, Krushchev and Brezhnev are on a train. The train stops moving. 

"Outrageous, sabotage ! " says Stalin. I'll fix this. 

He storms out of the carriage, and comes back five minutes later. "I don't understand it. I have the driver shot. I have the fireman shot. I have all the guards shot. The train doesn't move."

"Old thinking" says Krushchev. "I'll fix it." Off he goes. He comes back five minutes later, looking puzzled. "I have the driver committed to a mental institution. I have all the train guards confined under house arrest. The train doesn't move."

"Ahhh" says Brezhnev. He stands up and closes the curtain in the carriage. "I've fixed everything, " he says, "We just pretend the train is moving."

Love it. ;-)

Blacksword wrote: Sean Trane wrote: In 1989, in Heinrich Honecker's president office in East Berlin, he works at 8 AM, but at 9:30, he steps out on the balcony and loojks east and says "Good Morning Sun". The Sun answers "Good Morning Heirich." Amazed at the fact that the sun spoke to him, he heads back to the office and works like a beast until lunch time. After  lunch before going back to work; he goes to the balcony and tries again; "Good afternoon Sun";Tto which the Sun answers "Good Afternoon Heinrich". Spellbinded Heinrich works like mad until 6PM, and before going home, he goes to the balcony and speaks to the Sun again: "Good Evening, Sun". No answer... He tries again... and again silence. After a couple more tries, he gets angry and yells "Why don't you answer me, Sun?" The Sun turns around and says: Fùck you Heinrich, I'm in the West now!!" A Czech friend told me that one. It was doing the rounds in the communist block quite a lot in the 70's & 80's by all accounts. Although it was Breshnev, not Honecker. I guess each state had their own version.

To help foreigners understand the Russia-Ukraine dividing line (or rather its absence), I must tell you that the first post-Euromaidan President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko owned a confectionery factory in Russia and sold it only before the next Presidential elections in 2019 which he lost nevertheless. Which means the President of Ukraine yelled all around the world that the Russian power gives money to the Russian military that fights Ukraine, while his factory in Russia paid taxes to the Russian power thus financing the Russian military... 

Edited by Woon Deadn - December 24 2021 at 11:12

Thanks, Steve. ;-)

As Woon Deadn is best placed to tell you, it's really complicated stuff. We thought we had a mess with Northern Ireland and what we did in the Balkans, this is a real can of worms. 

We tend to think of Europe as one homologous mass, don't forget it's been the scene of warfare and land grabs since time immemorial. The Age of Empires meant that wars were fought by proxy in other countries as the great Empires seized land and resources from each other. Once Africa was effectively partitioned, the Germans essentially losing out, this leads eventually to WW1.

A good primer to understanding Europe (including Russia) is perhaps Eric Hobsbawm's "The Age of Empire", which I read nearly 30 years ago at University whilst doing a History degree. Anything by Hobsbawm is recommended, though he does get very left wing at times, rather than a neutral observer. 

It all turns out to be a bit of a mess. Centuries of wars in Europe have resulted in arbitrary borders being established, the result being that people of different ethnic groups and cultures have been left stranded in little islands here and there. Think of the Catalans, Sami, Basques, Bretons etc etc. Over here in the UK, and to an extent in the US, we get taught a very Anglicised history of the world.

People aren't aware of when sovereign states like Poland, Germany and Norway came into existence..... they're all fairly new. Modern Norway has, if I remember rightly, only had three kings. So the average Englishman is very unaware of history beyond what he was taught in school, which is a very narrow interpretation. 

Incidentally, one of the reasons why Americans are so prejudiced against the USSR and "socialism" is that the old USSR defaulted on all it's debts to two main creditors - the USA and France - after the revolution. A massive "anti" campaign was started in the US to discredit Russia, with, of course, a hiatus in the 40's as it was perceived to be easier to do trade with the USSR post war than Hitler's Germany, if the Nazis had overrun Europe. War always has an economic basis, no one would take the gamble otherwise.

What we're seeing in Ukraine is a bit different, there's not much of an economic basis there, but more a shoring up of national popularity for Putin. Unless you factor in that posturing to the West is going to result in a better economic landscape for Putin. It's like North Korea or Iran, make a big fuss, prod and poke, try and inflate a situation... for what reason ? To get more money and resources by concession and to appear bigger than you are. 



Edited by Davesax1965 - December 31 2021 at 04:41